I'm not sure I'd be touting this poll if I were Laffey.
What it really shows is that Chafee is acceptable to a large number of Democrats, meaning he can win the general and hold the seat for the Republicans.
I wonder what such a poll would show if the subject were Laffey rather than Chafee? My guess is that Laffey would be well below 50% support among Democrats and probably a little above among Republicans.
There is also the "missing Independent" problem.
Also, if this were a favorable poll for laffey, then why not release the most important question: WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR?
This is the second time in the last month that Laffey has released cherry-picked poll numbers that skirt the real question
brassband is right. what about laffey's approval ratings? where are the rest of these poll numbers??? am i missing something? not all of us are lucky enough to see the REAL numbers!!!
Signed,
IN THE DARK IN CRANSTON
To be fair to Laffey, I don't think this particular poll included him.
Survey USA did a poll in each state to test the popularity of individual incumbent Senators.
Seems to me that Sen. Chafee, although he may not agree with every Republican Vote is the only one who can win in the primary. Period. Laffey is not geting the support from the National Party because he is unelectable, like Pat Toomey in PA.
The following post appeared on RedState.org which is a conservative blog
There are powerful arguments to be made on both sides of this question, and no doubt this race will get a lot of play on RedState as well. I can tell you, from discussions with the editors here, that it is an issue about which we have much disagreement - and you might be surprised who comes down on which side of the debate. To my thinking, the pro-Chafee forces have the stronger arguments at this point, from an overall Republican perspective - despite how maddening Chafee can be, the political realities are that we are just not going to get a better option in RI. And while I'm all for sending a message, the smarter political maneuver would be to do it somewhere that we're likely to retain the seat in the General. To me, that outweighs concerns about Chafee's committee votes, from a purely rational perspective.
Caswell, you're a nice guy, but I can't let something you said go unchallenged. You said:
"Laffey is not geting the support from the National Party because he is unelectable, like Pat Toomey in PA."
Pat Toomey was a sitting U.S. Congressman in Pennsylvania (which means he was elected), who decided to run for U.S. Senate against a very powerful incumbent. Despite being outspent and having the rug pulled out from under him repeatedly by the national GOP, he galvanized his supporters and received 49% of the vote in the GOP primary. That is NOT unelectable. That is a man who got shafted by the political elite, who don't give a rat's right rump about principles or beliefs.
The incumbent called in political favors -- from the White House on down -- made a deal with them regarding his chairing of the Judiciary Committee and getting GOP Supreme Court nominees through. He convinced just enough people that he wouldn't stand in the way of their overall agenda, despite his long and undistinguished record and they bought it.
Here's the deal: the incumbent could be Lucifer himself and the national GOP would still back him, simply because he's the incumbent (in spite of him being the Prince of Darkness). It has absolutely nothing to do with the quality of the candidate or their "electability."
All you can manage to say in support of Chafee is "...we are just not going to get a better option in RI." Great slogan for a bumper sticker! That is downright pathetic.
Once again, Will weighs in with a clarity of thought that the Chafee chuckleheads wish they could muster.
There are a few things that need to be said here:
1. There are a lot of Republicans who don't like Chafee. That having been said, would we like Laffey any better? Is the goal to get rid of Chafee? or to get someone who would be a better Senator? What has Laffey done to demonstrate that he would be a better Senator for Rhode Island?
2. I see very little evidence that Laffey could defeat Whitehouse. I think Chafee could win in the general -- it will be a fight, but he can win. Despite all of his faults he remains well-liked. Until Laffey can demonstrate that he can defeat Whitehous (or any Democrat) in the general election, I simply cannot take him seriously.
3. So for me, at this point, the choice is between Chafee and Whitehouse. They are remarkably similar in very many ways. Tipping the balance in favor of Linc at this point is his party affiliation.
4. During the long period when the Democrats controlled the House and Senate, their majority included conservative Southern Democrats and liberal Northerners. Liberal ideological purists drove the conservatives out (See Zell Miller's book, "A National Party No More"). Even now, look at what the Dems are doing to Joe Lieberman -- simply because he had the audacity to agree with the President's foreign policy!
In a country as large as this one, if Republicans want to govern, they must tolerate some ideological diversity. That's the dilemma that conservatives face with Linc Chafee.
brassband, the conservatives face the same dilemma with Steve Laffey.
Laffey is a taxer, Laffey is for roadside camera speed traps, Laffey is for illegal alien ID cards.
Laffey is no conservative despite what his numerous love interests on this site try to spin.
I agree with Tim.
We've heard alot of Chafee-bashing over the last number of months, but I am curious why Laffey is a better choice. To me, his immigration policy is enough for me to stick with Chafee, and he hasn't exactly demonstrated himself to be predictable or "safe"
if anything, his entire reason for running has been completely self-serving. why not take on langevin? why not go after the gen. treasurer's job and REALLY clean up the state? why the senate? why not Jack Reed's seat? if he's so concerned about changing the status quo in washington, wouldn't having TWO republican senators do more than having one that the national party can't stand?
IF these two guys have questionable conservative records (WHICH THEY DO) then i think it comes down to CHARACTER, and laffey heads will come down with laffey, and chafee's supporters will go with chafee. the question then becomes who do (IND) VOTERS TRUST AND HOW MANY WILL TURN OUT IN THE PRIMARY
hey guys and gals, seems like some of you worry about stuff you can't control. laffey will win, he always wins. he won the first race against the rich guy aram, he won reelection when you all thoght he was going to lose. he solves major problems and with him there is no gender gap. noone out works him,,, noone ... ever. he is probably working light now. I was there the last primay... 450 volunteers working for one guy in one city and he had it organized like a marine outfit. How do you think he got to run a big investment banking firm down south at the age of 38. stop all the nonsense.
He's the smartest guy I've ever met and is three steps ahead of everyone. By the way he's got a great family that help out all the time.\\
have you ever seen him campaign--he's probably out there right now--I've seen this stuff--fifteen --twenty people going down a street , music playing, guy with a soundsytem with a truck and laffey running from door to door. he wears you out . he will win, the whole thing . he always does
HA! I know way too many people that worked for him in 02 and 04 that won't be voting/working for him this time around to take that last comment seriously!
why not just join the Dems? you guys are just blowing each other up, and i'm loving it!
Just came from the south county rep breakfast. you are right Ron. the man , Laffey gave a speech, like I have never heard, and I have head a lot. Ten minutes of straight forward leadership--I wish he was still talking! I think we were all ready to go and knock on some doors right then and there! He is so motivating, it is just great. so refreshing. When he meets you , you will vote for him.
hey ha!! ha ha on you, Laffey is the motivator, he is the man and 1000s of volunteers are getting ready to rumble, just foaming to get him in the senate. He is the biggest motivator I have seen. And he loves wipping the butts of people like you.
Tim,
Laffey cleaned up the mess in Cranston and he'll attempt to do the same thing in Washington. He has a track record of success. That is why I am supporting him.
Again and again, you Chafee lightweights give no reason to vote for your man. Taking your talking points from the NRSC, the best reason you can come up with not to vote for Laffey is that he raised taxes in Cranston so he is not a real Republican. Oddly, you don't even attempt to suggest that your candidate is a real Republican, yet you maintain this as a reason not to vote for Laffey. This is not the product of intelligent design.
Notwithstanding the fact that Laffey's reason for raising taxes is well understood by everyone in this state, certainly by anyone who is going to bother to vote, the Chafee campaign has embarked on a dangerous strategy - that of assuming the public is as ignorant as they are.
Your endless attempts to cloak Chafee's serious deficiencies will never hide the fact that Chafee is merely a member of the lucky sperm club.
So much political talk from people who understand nothing. First, there is only one senator who has an approval rating from members of his own party below 50%, let alone having over 50% of your own party voters disapproving of him. Even Specter who barely won the primary in 2004, has a much better approval rating among Republicans. That's why Chafee is toast. Second, in regards to independents, they approve of Chafee 53 to 40 but guess what guys, the 40% who disapprove are probably the same independents who voted for Bush, remember Bush got 39% of the vote in RI, but only 13% of RI is Republican. These independents are coming out to vote for Laffey. Meanwhile the 53% who approve of Chafee will be drawn to vote for liberal Democratic candidates like Brown, and Whitehouse. This is why Chafee looked so pathetic recently trying to get the NEA to save his sorry ass in a Republican primary..it won't work. Third, character issues don't trump substantive issues remember Dole 96 and Bush 92 camapigns were failures, and more importantly Laffey's character is funny to many people. Fourth, I just can't wait to see Chafee torturing himself next month about not voting for Alito, but voting to end the filibuster (thereby pleasing no one). Ok Chafee talking point fools, that means you Tim(who probably works at Chafee's office), that means you Caswell (Westerly water boy, who loves Chafee pork chops), and James, the new addition who just friends with of Chafee staffers, but isn't one himself.
Fred Sanford,
I'm a teacher. I know math. Unfortunately, you don't.
40% of Independents negatively view Chafee
39% of RI went for Bush in 04
13% of RI voters are Republican
39 - 13 = 26(%)
So, if we assume that 100% of all Republicans voted for Bush, around 26% of independents accounted for his 39% total. Of course, we know that not all republicans will be voting for Laffey in the primary, so you can't count on the full 13%. Nor can you assume that 100% of all Independents are going to break for Laffey, so you can't can't on that 26%.
Meanwhile, as the poll reveals, his numbers have only improved since may. He is close to 60% with women, seniors, and even garners 50% of self-identified conservative voters -- a number you would probably like to see much lower.
Independents will swing the primary, but they won't come out for Brown or Sheldon. THIS is the more intriguing race, and liberals actually approve of chafee at a 63% rate, telling me that they'd be perfectly happy leaving chafee in there.
and it wasn't character that determined the 92 and especially 96 elections. (do i have to say it) IT WAS THE ECONOMY, STUPID. clinton charmed while bush was caught with people reading his lips and dole was as stiff as a viagra consumer.
however, i believe that it will be character that determines this primary, and i think rhode islanders will regret putting laffey in that office if he wins. his antics aren't funny. he may be good on the ground. but he makes me uneasy as a conservative. i don't trust him. and i don't trust his motivations.
For example, if Laffey loses the primary, will he continue to run as an Independent? Where does his personal interest stop and the interest of Rhode Island begin?
And finally, this poll has a margin of error of 11.2% when asked of Republicans! Plus, Chafee's approval ratings are higher than Specter or Coburn (another favorite of laffey supporters from what i read).
Don't count on an easy win here, folks. This will be a tough primary.
AND I DON'T WORK FOR, NOR DO I KNOW ANY CHAFEE STAFFERS.
and to lou the butcher/jizmo: don't double post under different names like that. it errodes your credibility and your candidate's
James,
If someone loses in a primary, it is already too late for them to be considered a candidate as an independent for the general election.
Judging from many of your observations, your understanding of this stuff is trivial.
Dear NEA Member (James)
You may be a teacher but you don't understand political math. You get an F. You are mixing numbers up. Bush got 170,000 votes in RI, there are only 70,000 republicans in RI, and fewer that than number actually voted in 2004. Therefore, there is about 100,000 independents who voted for Bush. That's right about 100,000, the highest repub primary turnout in history was 45,000. Combine a large number of Bush independents and a very high percentage of Republicans who will vote for Laffey, and you are going to have another record breaking turnout where Laffey wins big...just like in 04. Remember, James if you disapprove of someone, you never vote for him and in fact you are motivated to come out voted against him. (The people who hate Laffey tend to be Democrats in unions like you in ateacher's union while the people who hate Chafee tend to be Republicans and Bush lovers). This differs for those who simply approve of a candidate because approval can be very weak and tepid. All this other stuff about Chafee's favorability compared to other senators, is meaningless in a republican primary. The other stats are also rather meaningless... they are many elderly Democrats who consider themselves conservative but are not Republicans and so won't vote in a Republican primary. Now, once again about the liberal independents (who approve of Chafee)...there are going to be so many Democratic primaries races from Senate to Sec. of State to state rep to mayor that they are going to be sucked in to that. Also, many liberals think Laffey is easier to beat so they will want him to win the primary (underestimating him again). Furthermroe, Chafee keeps trying to push his Republican image (ie voting to the end filibuster on the patriot act) he turns off these liberal voters ...why save a guy who votes with the hated National Republicans on anything when they can vote for Demnocrats who say exactly what they want to hear. Furthermroe, the ECONOMY STUPID makes my point, the losing campaigns in 92 and 96 tried to bring up character issuss but failed because Clinton focused on substantive "changing Washington" issues ...just like Laffey does- although Laffey's positions are very different. (Now I bet-as a NEA member- you liked the change Clinton brought to Washington although I didn't, but that's another story). Laffey's antics have not hurt him in elections (he won in 04 by landslides) ..remember pink flamingos, and by the way Cranston politically is an excellent bellweather for RI....I will spare you the math since you would probably not understand it either. There will be an independent running in Nov. his name will be Chafee either because Chafee bolts (they know they are really behind that's why their campaign and Senate repubs went negative on Laffey so early) since they know Laffey trounces Chafee in the primary (a New Republic article cited internal polls by both parties showing that)or as write-in independent after losing the primary becuase he stayed in the primary on advice from people like you or at least the NEA, Tim and Caswell..Chafee likes write-in campaigns... remember George H. W. Bush in 04.
Class dismissed..or do you want more remedial education in political math James.
Here's my challenge to Laffey and his supporters;
Prove that you can beat Whitehouse (or, less likely, Brown).
Prove that you can get enough Dem and Ind votes statewide against a strong Democrat (and either one will emerge from the primary as a strong candidate).
Start running now against the Democrats (rather than attacking Chafee) and show that you can hold this seat for Republicans.
What a busy day at the political junk yard for me and my old red truck.
Hey brass band, you are right in tune with the chafee campaign..always fall back on electability. Here are some responses:
1, Cranston election results are a very good indicator of statewide results..so if you can win in Cranston you can win statewide, the same is true for a community like Warwick. That is why our two current senators started out politically in Cranston and Warwick. Laffey has done very well in Cranston, including defeating in 2002 a well-funded, well-known Democrat, Garabedian, and then defeating a major union attack in 04.
2, Lets use the West poll, although he is a bad pollster, as shown when in 2002 he had York winning by 7 when Carceiri won by 10. West had Laffey behind by 10, and neck-neck with Brown. At this stage of the game, this is very good since Whitehouse and Brown both have held statewide office, Whitehosue ran for governor, while Laffey has been mayor of a city consisting of 10% of the people. West polls all registered voters, which produces inaccurate results. A poll of likely voters who vote in non-presidential years, when turnout is lower and better for a Republican, would probably have Laffey ahead of Brown by 10 and neck and neck with Whitehouse ahead slightly ahead or behind. By the way, Chafee is in bad shape in the general as shown by West-he is below 50% and is ahead by only 5% (within the margin) of Whitehouse. 3, You forget it was Chafee and Senate Repubs who attacked Laffey first...becuase they are so far behind, Laffey is merely dishing back.
But in all honesty, don't you agree Chafee should run in a Democratic primary, he could win that primary with approval numbers over 60%.
I know you will respond back with the same old tunes...he's crazy not funny, he's not really ocnservative although he supports the bush tax cuts, the war and is pro-life, ...so boring and predictable. You should change your name to Aerosmith because ...all you can do on this website is the "Same Old Song and Dance", and when it comes to your belief that Chafee is going to win a Rpeublican primary, the song "Dream On" comes to mind. Keep playing that funky music white boy.
3 things:
1. The numbers aren't off -- if you understood a bit about mathematical problem solving, you always begin with what you are given and state those numbers at top, as I have done, after using numbers provided in a previous post. So, the numbers were based in the polling data and what were wrong conclusions drawn by another poster, and I stand by them. I also believe that when all is said and done you'll see many more independents and dems voting in the republican primary than you people seem to think. I know of at least a half-dozen dem and ind. members of my family and workplace that will be voting in the Rep. primary in favor of Linc.
2. I guess it only fits that Laffey supporters would jump to conclusions without reason, but I am in fact NOT a member of the NEA. Like many teachers in the state, I teach some of the 12 - 18% (depending on whose data you go on) of children that attend private schools in RI. I am, as is my school: union-free.
3. I appologize for my wording - it must have been from that damned WoonsAWcket up-bringing I had. Let me ask again: If laffey winds up losING the primary, how do we know he won't run as an independent (as in not making it to september)?
Dear Bad Math Taecher (James)
1, I can see that you can't refute my numbers and instead you are left to saying I know people who will vote for Chafee..yeah, yeah, and I know people who don't know anything about politics, but talk a lot...like you. Like the statment that Democrats will vote for Chafee in a primary, you can't vote in a Republican if you are a registered Democrat, the unions tried to disaffiliate people to do that but only got about 300 people to do it and it failed in 2004.
2, I apologize for assuming you are an NEA member, you probably just agree with them most of the time.
3, you don't even understand the basics of running for office in RI, once you declare as a Republican and no lose in a primary you can't then run as independent and be on the ballot , its the law...at that point Chafee would have to do a write-in campaign for Senate, which you can support. Don't forget to tell your fmaily and friends too. Keep hope alive James, I hope you don't teach math.
oh, come on people.
chafee has poll numbers to back him up. laffey has poll numbers to back him up.
this was one poll taken of 600 rhode island adults. not likely voters. not even registered voters.
settle down. james was right in his broad analysis of the data provided and to ponder if laffey (or chafee for that matter) will drop out of the primary to go independent, and fred sanford was correct to point out Chafee's dismal conservative credentials.
however, i think jimbo brings up a good question: has laffey ever said in public that he is committed to a republican primary? it seems like he's running a textbook independent campaign.
just a thought -- anyone have any inside dirt?
Laffey is a Republican and will win the primary and the general as one. Period.
http://www.anchorrising.com/barnacles/002359.html
Fred Sanford --
First, I'm not sure which West poll you're looking at. The last one I've seen is from Sept., and it has Chafee ahead of Sheldon by 38 to 25 (with Laffey behind 35-25). I agree with you that these polls are quite dubious, but that's what those numbers are.
Second, I am not a Chafee apologist. I want the candidate most likely to hold the seat for the Republican majority.
Maybe Laffey will convince me that he's the one. He hasn't yet.
Hi John B. and brassband,
Chafee led 41 to 36 over Whitehouse in West's June poll. Oz is right, Laffey has said repeatedly he would NEVER run as independent ever..it was posted on this website. In 04, because of the union effort in the primary, some people encouraged him to run as independent but he refused. Meanwhile Chafee has publicly flirted with leaving the party on many occasions including as recently as Nov. 2004. Furthermore, Chafee have never ruled out (under any circumstances) running as an independent at sometime in the future. Laffey has flexibility in his campaign approach because of how bad Chafee is among Republicans as evidenced by the USA Survey poll and he can appeal to independents with his anti-washington insider lingo, which is fine for him since the insiders in DC support incumbants no matter what. However, Laffey has been clear on his conservative positions on Bush's tax cuts, support of the war, and is pro-life. While Chafee has had the exact opposite position on these fundamental issues. Over time, I hope more of you on this blog will agree with me about Laffey. Nice talking to both of you.
Would you Laffey sycophants answer me one very simple question?
Why isn't Mr. Wonderful Motivational Speaker Can't Miss Wins Whenever He Runs not running for governor??
THAT is the job Steve Laffey covets.
Why no challenge to Carcieri??
It's certainly not a love/respect thing since the governor and his staff can't stand Laffey.
Why isn't Laffey going after the job he really wants?
Mr. Courageous is a phoney and a fraud who doensn't have the guts to run against Carcieri?
Ummmm....yes!
Will,
I don't think you can dismiss Caswell's comment that Toomey was unelectable so easily Toomey proved he was electable in one Congressional district in PA. He proved that he could have won a GOP primary in PA. But the polls never had him winning a statewide Senate race in PA. I think Caswell is on firmer ground saying that Toomey was unelectable than anyone making an assertion that Toomey was electable. After all, Toomey lost the only statewide campaign he ever ran. He never showed that he was electable.
I do think you can make an assertion that a conservative can win statewide in PA. Look at Santorum.
But you have to be careful to distinguish between just any "conservative" and a specific conservative. If Carcieri were running in this Senate race, I think he would beat all other candidates. That means a conservative could win in RI, although it would be a tough race.
Yet I don't think Steve Laffey stands a chance. He has a serious trust issue. I said earlier that I've never seen someone make so many enemies in so little time. This latest incident was a prime example. He went out of his way to belittle a former political ally and then exhibited sarcastic arrogance by not taking the media inquiry about the story seriously. Beyond that, it's just plan weird.
One other note about PA versus RI. In PA, you have the middle part of the state and Pittsburgh which tend to vote conservatively. In RI, you have a state that is as blue as you can get.
Both the Laffey and Chafee camps are comparing this race to PA, yet there are so many differences, I'm not sure it's a valid comparison at all.
Tim,
"Why isn't Mr. Wonderful Motivational Speaker Can't Miss Wins Whenever He Runs not running for governor??
THAT is the job Steve Laffey covets.
Why no challenge to Carcieri??"
The simple reason is that Mayor Laffey supports what Gov. Carcieri is doing for the people of Rhode Island. Rhode Island Republicans may be divided as to whom to support for the U.S. Senate race, however, there is next to none (closer to none) in the Republican Party who have even mentioned the thought of a primary challenge against Gov. Carcieri. Sorry Dem pals, no GOP primary there for you! He has an enviable level of support.
Secondly, I wouldn't necessarily make the assumption that Mayor Laffey "covets" the governorship of RI. Gov. Carcieri works very hard for the people of Rhode Island. However, due to the way that Rhode Island government "works" and the inordinate power of the General Assembly, getting anything of substance accomplished is extraordinarily difficult. The governor's main task is to limit the damage that the corrupt General Assembly does. If he can get his own agenda through, in addition to that, then it's icing on the cake.
Mayor Laffey obviously believes that he can accomplish more in the U.S. Senate than as governor of Rhode Island. That being said, I wouldn't outright rule out a possible gubernatorial run for then Senator Laffey in 2014 or 2018. Of course, after his second Senate term is over in 2018, he might have higher aspirations. ;)
Anthony,
While I appreciate much of what you've mentioned, there is always a different way to approach the same thing.
You said: "He went out of his way to belittle a former political ally and then exhibited sarcastic arrogance by not taking the media inquiry about the story seriously."
Mayor Laffey didn't take the media inquiries "seriously," because the "news" story was entirely contrived. The Projo knew of this well beforehand, but sat on the story and then released at a particular time for the purpose of offsetting a largely positive story that appeared on the same day. This wasn't some "scoop" that they wanted to get out quickly. It is also not a coincidence that the same story appeared in a Washington DC gossip rag on the same day. It was a "non-news" news story, fairly silly at that, and not particularly worthy of any great attention.
What you infer as sarcasm, Mayor Laffey would see as treating something with a sense of humor, that was humorous. He's not a prude. He also knows when to pick battles and to let other ones go. Do you honestly think he was sitting at his desk, and on a whim commanded "Go pixellate Jackvony!" If he even knew about it beforehand, it probably would have only been in passing. It's not like they put Jackvony's head on a wanted poster, or mailed him a horse's head or something.
"I said earlier that I've never seen someone make so many enemies in so little time."
Laffey likes to take on big challenges. If they are "enemies" of Laffey, that's only because he sees them as standing in the way of good government or the people's best interests. Unfortunately, the Republican Party, just like the other one, has it's share of bottomfeeders who's raison d'etre is their political position. Laffey doesn't consider politics to be a "career." As he likes to say, he's already had a real "career." He just wants to serve the people of Rhode Island, because he doesn't necessarily believe that they have been well-served thusfar.
"He just wants to serve the people of Rhode Island, because he doesn't necessarily believe that they have been well-served thusfar."
oh come on! Laffey just wants to serve the people? This is all about his ego.
Oh wait, maybe it isn't about his ego. it could be about his desire to serve the Lord. Remember, God spoke to the mayor when he first moved here to tell him to run for senate.
and to think that he wants to serve in the senate b/c he can "get things done" is laughable. The senate is the most deliberate, dilatory branch of our government. what's laffey going to do? does he think he can go down there and buck procedure? Not to mention, how many enemies does he already have down there already? And we already know he's not going to bring home the same federal commitments that chafee has. so how's he going to work for the interests of rhode island? is he going to vote for alito? secure our borders?
bill lynch was on tv this morning hoping that laffey would win the primary!
the strongest voice for the smallest state is going to come from Jack Reed or Sheldon Whitehouse, not Laffey
this is just another example of the rhode island republican party self-destructing. is it too late to start a bull-moose party?
Will,
Most likely the story was 'leaked' by the Chafee camp, although I'm not sure it's a 'leak' if it's a story about something on a publicly accessible website. That doesn't diminish the fact that Laffey's actions were just plain immature and silly.
Also, I think we all know that Laffey is very well aware of just about everything that goes on around him. I find it hard to believe that he didn't know about Jackvony's picture being 'pixellated' out of the photo on his website.
On the 'enemies' topic, Carcieri has developed enemies by taking on entrenched interests, yet most people would still find him to be a unifying presence. Laffey's enemies are not appear to be not only political, but other Republicans who share many of his philosophies.
I'm sure there are a few people in the RI Republican leadership who are there for the status aspect. But I think most people participate in the process because they honestly believe that RI can do better. It's too easy to attain status in RI by simply becoming a Democrat. If someone is protecting their political turf as a Republican, they have to realize their turf is the equivalent of a mini-golf course, not an 18 hole course.
Everyone who has under the Laffey spell must be careful. He is a charmer; your first impression is great. You come away very impressed, he gives great speeches, he is a motivator, etc.
However, give it some time, and that charm wears away. I once felt the same way many of you did, and I no longer feel that way anymore. In fact, I feel stabbed in the back.
Is this where we are going now? Feelings?
If you want someone to give you the warm and fuzzies, then go adopt a dog.
If you want someone to represent your best interests with conviction, then Laffey is your man.
I've been keeping an eye on Laffey since April of 2002, and he has done everything he said he would. There were no surprises for me in any of his moves.
Robert, clearly you feel that way because of your close association with the unions. It's a pity you people can't think for yourselves.
Don't tell me you're not union either, its just not believable.
Robert, sorry. There is one possibilty that you are not union... that you're one of those stupid people without flood insurance who expects the taxpayers to bail you out...
If you're not all wet, you're union!
Steve Laffey cares about Steve Laffey. He doesn't care about much else. He's not going to change, so you might as well accept him for who he is, good and bad...reminds me of a story.
An old man was walking in the wintertime and came across a snake that was nearly frozen. Feeling bad for the snake, the old man took the snake into his house and nursed the snake back to health. After the snake became healthy, it bit the old man. The old man asked, "I saved your life, why did you bite me?" The snake replied, "You knew I was a snake when you brought me into your house. I'm a snake and I bite people. You shouldn't be surprised that I bit you, too."
Will, for someone so enamoured with Steve Laffey you certainly don't know him very well.
GOVERNOR is the job he covets and always has.
Any notion you're promoting that he's a fan of the Gov. Carcieri and supports him is hilarious.
Nobody buys that nonsense, Will.
Laffey would gladly put a knife in the back of the Governor to get him out of the way but can't because he doesn't have the politcal strength to do so and Steve Laffey doesn't have the balls to challenge Carcieri face to face.
Laffey won't run for re-election as mayor in Cranston because all those big union contracts are coming due and he doesn't want any part of it.
Laffey won't run for a second tier state office because he's Steve Laffey and being only a 2 term mayor of Cranston makes him too big (lol) for those offices so what's left that's high profile enough for Laffey's ego??
The Senate!
That's the only reason Laffey is running for that office and that's why he brings no broad Senatorial vision to the table.
It's not the job he wants.
Laffey wants to be the Governor of the state of Rhode Island.
He just doesn't have the balls to challenge the guy who is.
I'm not sure I'd be touting this poll if I were Laffey.
What it really shows is that Chafee is acceptable to a large number of Democrats, meaning he can win the general and hold the seat for the Republicans.
I wonder what such a poll would show if the subject were Laffey rather than Chafee? My guess is that Laffey would be well below 50% support among Democrats and probably a little above among Republicans.
There is also the "missing Independent" problem.
Posted by: brassband77 at December 16, 2005 8:40 PMAlso, if this were a favorable poll for laffey, then why not release the most important question: WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR?
This is the second time in the last month that Laffey has released cherry-picked poll numbers that skirt the real question
brassband is right. what about laffey's approval ratings? where are the rest of these poll numbers??? am i missing something? not all of us are lucky enough to see the REAL numbers!!!
Signed,
IN THE DARK IN CRANSTON
Posted by: cranston money man at December 16, 2005 9:07 PMTo be fair to Laffey, I don't think this particular poll included him.
Survey USA did a poll in each state to test the popularity of individual incumbent Senators.
Posted by: brassband77 at December 16, 2005 9:21 PMSeems to me that Sen. Chafee, although he may not agree with every Republican Vote is the only one who can win in the primary. Period. Laffey is not geting the support from the National Party because he is unelectable, like Pat Toomey in PA.
The following post appeared on RedState.org which is a conservative blog
There are powerful arguments to be made on both sides of this question, and no doubt this race will get a lot of play on RedState as well. I can tell you, from discussions with the editors here, that it is an issue about which we have much disagreement - and you might be surprised who comes down on which side of the debate. To my thinking, the pro-Chafee forces have the stronger arguments at this point, from an overall Republican perspective - despite how maddening Chafee can be, the political realities are that we are just not going to get a better option in RI. And while I'm all for sending a message, the smarter political maneuver would be to do it somewhere that we're likely to retain the seat in the General. To me, that outweighs concerns about Chafee's committee votes, from a purely rational perspective.
Caswell, you're a nice guy, but I can't let something you said go unchallenged. You said:
"Laffey is not geting the support from the National Party because he is unelectable, like Pat Toomey in PA."
Pat Toomey was a sitting U.S. Congressman in Pennsylvania (which means he was elected), who decided to run for U.S. Senate against a very powerful incumbent. Despite being outspent and having the rug pulled out from under him repeatedly by the national GOP, he galvanized his supporters and received 49% of the vote in the GOP primary. That is NOT unelectable. That is a man who got shafted by the political elite, who don't give a rat's right rump about principles or beliefs.
The incumbent called in political favors -- from the White House on down -- made a deal with them regarding his chairing of the Judiciary Committee and getting GOP Supreme Court nominees through. He convinced just enough people that he wouldn't stand in the way of their overall agenda, despite his long and undistinguished record and they bought it.
Here's the deal: the incumbent could be Lucifer himself and the national GOP would still back him, simply because he's the incumbent (in spite of him being the Prince of Darkness). It has absolutely nothing to do with the quality of the candidate or their "electability."
All you can manage to say in support of Chafee is "...we are just not going to get a better option in RI." Great slogan for a bumper sticker! That is downright pathetic.
Posted by: Will at December 17, 2005 1:15 AMOnce again, Will weighs in with a clarity of thought that the Chafee chuckleheads wish they could muster.
Posted by: oz at December 17, 2005 6:11 AMThere are a few things that need to be said here:
1. There are a lot of Republicans who don't like Chafee. That having been said, would we like Laffey any better? Is the goal to get rid of Chafee? or to get someone who would be a better Senator? What has Laffey done to demonstrate that he would be a better Senator for Rhode Island?
2. I see very little evidence that Laffey could defeat Whitehouse. I think Chafee could win in the general -- it will be a fight, but he can win. Despite all of his faults he remains well-liked. Until Laffey can demonstrate that he can defeat Whitehous (or any Democrat) in the general election, I simply cannot take him seriously.
3. So for me, at this point, the choice is between Chafee and Whitehouse. They are remarkably similar in very many ways. Tipping the balance in favor of Linc at this point is his party affiliation.
4. During the long period when the Democrats controlled the House and Senate, their majority included conservative Southern Democrats and liberal Northerners. Liberal ideological purists drove the conservatives out (See Zell Miller's book, "A National Party No More"). Even now, look at what the Dems are doing to Joe Lieberman -- simply because he had the audacity to agree with the President's foreign policy!
In a country as large as this one, if Republicans want to govern, they must tolerate some ideological diversity. That's the dilemma that conservatives face with Linc Chafee.
Posted by: brassband77 at December 17, 2005 6:58 AMbrassband, the conservatives face the same dilemma with Steve Laffey.
Posted by: Tim at December 17, 2005 8:08 AMLaffey is a taxer, Laffey is for roadside camera speed traps, Laffey is for illegal alien ID cards.
Laffey is no conservative despite what his numerous love interests on this site try to spin.
I agree with Tim.
We've heard alot of Chafee-bashing over the last number of months, but I am curious why Laffey is a better choice. To me, his immigration policy is enough for me to stick with Chafee, and he hasn't exactly demonstrated himself to be predictable or "safe"
if anything, his entire reason for running has been completely self-serving. why not take on langevin? why not go after the gen. treasurer's job and REALLY clean up the state? why the senate? why not Jack Reed's seat? if he's so concerned about changing the status quo in washington, wouldn't having TWO republican senators do more than having one that the national party can't stand?
IF these two guys have questionable conservative records (WHICH THEY DO) then i think it comes down to CHARACTER, and laffey heads will come down with laffey, and chafee's supporters will go with chafee. the question then becomes who do (IND) VOTERS TRUST AND HOW MANY WILL TURN OUT IN THE PRIMARY
Posted by: cranston money man at December 17, 2005 10:13 AMhey guys and gals, seems like some of you worry about stuff you can't control. laffey will win, he always wins. he won the first race against the rich guy aram, he won reelection when you all thoght he was going to lose. he solves major problems and with him there is no gender gap. noone out works him,,, noone ... ever. he is probably working light now. I was there the last primay... 450 volunteers working for one guy in one city and he had it organized like a marine outfit. How do you think he got to run a big investment banking firm down south at the age of 38. stop all the nonsense.
He's the smartest guy I've ever met and is three steps ahead of everyone. By the way he's got a great family that help out all the time.\\
have you ever seen him campaign--he's probably out there right now--I've seen this stuff--fifteen --twenty people going down a street , music playing, guy with a soundsytem with a truck and laffey running from door to door. he wears you out . he will win, the whole thing . he always does
Posted by: Ron Milton at December 17, 2005 10:45 AMHA! I know way too many people that worked for him in 02 and 04 that won't be voting/working for him this time around to take that last comment seriously!
why not just join the Dems? you guys are just blowing each other up, and i'm loving it!
Posted by: HA! at December 17, 2005 10:52 AMJust came from the south county rep breakfast. you are right Ron. the man , Laffey gave a speech, like I have never heard, and I have head a lot. Ten minutes of straight forward leadership--I wish he was still talking! I think we were all ready to go and knock on some doors right then and there! He is so motivating, it is just great. so refreshing. When he meets you , you will vote for him.
Posted by: jizmo at December 17, 2005 10:55 AMhey ha!! ha ha on you, Laffey is the motivator, he is the man and 1000s of volunteers are getting ready to rumble, just foaming to get him in the senate. He is the biggest motivator I have seen. And he loves wipping the butts of people like you.
Posted by: lou the butcher at December 17, 2005 11:03 AMTim,
Laffey cleaned up the mess in Cranston and he'll attempt to do the same thing in Washington. He has a track record of success. That is why I am supporting him.
Again and again, you Chafee lightweights give no reason to vote for your man. Taking your talking points from the NRSC, the best reason you can come up with not to vote for Laffey is that he raised taxes in Cranston so he is not a real Republican. Oddly, you don't even attempt to suggest that your candidate is a real Republican, yet you maintain this as a reason not to vote for Laffey. This is not the product of intelligent design.
Notwithstanding the fact that Laffey's reason for raising taxes is well understood by everyone in this state, certainly by anyone who is going to bother to vote, the Chafee campaign has embarked on a dangerous strategy - that of assuming the public is as ignorant as they are.
Your endless attempts to cloak Chafee's serious deficiencies will never hide the fact that Chafee is merely a member of the lucky sperm club.
Posted by: Jim at December 17, 2005 11:16 AMSo much political talk from people who understand nothing. First, there is only one senator who has an approval rating from members of his own party below 50%, let alone having over 50% of your own party voters disapproving of him. Even Specter who barely won the primary in 2004, has a much better approval rating among Republicans. That's why Chafee is toast. Second, in regards to independents, they approve of Chafee 53 to 40 but guess what guys, the 40% who disapprove are probably the same independents who voted for Bush, remember Bush got 39% of the vote in RI, but only 13% of RI is Republican. These independents are coming out to vote for Laffey. Meanwhile the 53% who approve of Chafee will be drawn to vote for liberal Democratic candidates like Brown, and Whitehouse. This is why Chafee looked so pathetic recently trying to get the NEA to save his sorry ass in a Republican primary..it won't work. Third, character issues don't trump substantive issues remember Dole 96 and Bush 92 camapigns were failures, and more importantly Laffey's character is funny to many people. Fourth, I just can't wait to see Chafee torturing himself next month about not voting for Alito, but voting to end the filibuster (thereby pleasing no one). Ok Chafee talking point fools, that means you Tim(who probably works at Chafee's office), that means you Caswell (Westerly water boy, who loves Chafee pork chops), and James, the new addition who just friends with of Chafee staffers, but isn't one himself.
Posted by: Fred sanford at December 17, 2005 11:21 AMFred Sanford,
I'm a teacher. I know math. Unfortunately, you don't.
40% of Independents negatively view Chafee
39% of RI went for Bush in 04
13% of RI voters are Republican
39 - 13 = 26(%)
So, if we assume that 100% of all Republicans voted for Bush, around 26% of independents accounted for his 39% total. Of course, we know that not all republicans will be voting for Laffey in the primary, so you can't count on the full 13%. Nor can you assume that 100% of all Independents are going to break for Laffey, so you can't can't on that 26%.
Meanwhile, as the poll reveals, his numbers have only improved since may. He is close to 60% with women, seniors, and even garners 50% of self-identified conservative voters -- a number you would probably like to see much lower.
Independents will swing the primary, but they won't come out for Brown or Sheldon. THIS is the more intriguing race, and liberals actually approve of chafee at a 63% rate, telling me that they'd be perfectly happy leaving chafee in there.
and it wasn't character that determined the 92 and especially 96 elections. (do i have to say it) IT WAS THE ECONOMY, STUPID. clinton charmed while bush was caught with people reading his lips and dole was as stiff as a viagra consumer.
however, i believe that it will be character that determines this primary, and i think rhode islanders will regret putting laffey in that office if he wins. his antics aren't funny. he may be good on the ground. but he makes me uneasy as a conservative. i don't trust him. and i don't trust his motivations.
For example, if Laffey loses the primary, will he continue to run as an Independent? Where does his personal interest stop and the interest of Rhode Island begin?
And finally, this poll has a margin of error of 11.2% when asked of Republicans! Plus, Chafee's approval ratings are higher than Specter or Coburn (another favorite of laffey supporters from what i read).
Don't count on an easy win here, folks. This will be a tough primary.
AND I DON'T WORK FOR, NOR DO I KNOW ANY CHAFEE STAFFERS.
and to lou the butcher/jizmo: don't double post under different names like that. it errodes your credibility and your candidate's
Posted by: James at December 17, 2005 12:10 PMJames,
Posted by: Jim at December 17, 2005 12:56 PMIf someone loses in a primary, it is already too late for them to be considered a candidate as an independent for the general election.
Judging from many of your observations, your understanding of this stuff is trivial.
Dear NEA Member (James)
You may be a teacher but you don't understand political math. You get an F. You are mixing numbers up. Bush got 170,000 votes in RI, there are only 70,000 republicans in RI, and fewer that than number actually voted in 2004. Therefore, there is about 100,000 independents who voted for Bush. That's right about 100,000, the highest repub primary turnout in history was 45,000. Combine a large number of Bush independents and a very high percentage of Republicans who will vote for Laffey, and you are going to have another record breaking turnout where Laffey wins big...just like in 04. Remember, James if you disapprove of someone, you never vote for him and in fact you are motivated to come out voted against him. (The people who hate Laffey tend to be Democrats in unions like you in ateacher's union while the people who hate Chafee tend to be Republicans and Bush lovers). This differs for those who simply approve of a candidate because approval can be very weak and tepid. All this other stuff about Chafee's favorability compared to other senators, is meaningless in a republican primary. The other stats are also rather meaningless... they are many elderly Democrats who consider themselves conservative but are not Republicans and so won't vote in a Republican primary. Now, once again about the liberal independents (who approve of Chafee)...there are going to be so many Democratic primaries races from Senate to Sec. of State to state rep to mayor that they are going to be sucked in to that. Also, many liberals think Laffey is easier to beat so they will want him to win the primary (underestimating him again). Furthermroe, Chafee keeps trying to push his Republican image (ie voting to the end filibuster on the patriot act) he turns off these liberal voters ...why save a guy who votes with the hated National Republicans on anything when they can vote for Demnocrats who say exactly what they want to hear. Furthermroe, the ECONOMY STUPID makes my point, the losing campaigns in 92 and 96 tried to bring up character issuss but failed because Clinton focused on substantive "changing Washington" issues ...just like Laffey does- although Laffey's positions are very different. (Now I bet-as a NEA member- you liked the change Clinton brought to Washington although I didn't, but that's another story). Laffey's antics have not hurt him in elections (he won in 04 by landslides) ..remember pink flamingos, and by the way Cranston politically is an excellent bellweather for RI....I will spare you the math since you would probably not understand it either. There will be an independent running in Nov. his name will be Chafee either because Chafee bolts (they know they are really behind that's why their campaign and Senate repubs went negative on Laffey so early) since they know Laffey trounces Chafee in the primary (a New Republic article cited internal polls by both parties showing that)or as write-in independent after losing the primary becuase he stayed in the primary on advice from people like you or at least the NEA, Tim and Caswell..Chafee likes write-in campaigns... remember George H. W. Bush in 04.
Posted by: Fred sanford at December 17, 2005 1:03 PMClass dismissed..or do you want more remedial education in political math James.
Here's my challenge to Laffey and his supporters;
Prove that you can beat Whitehouse (or, less likely, Brown).
Prove that you can get enough Dem and Ind votes statewide against a strong Democrat (and either one will emerge from the primary as a strong candidate).
Start running now against the Democrats (rather than attacking Chafee) and show that you can hold this seat for Republicans.
Posted by: brassband77 at December 17, 2005 1:07 PMWhat a busy day at the political junk yard for me and my old red truck.
Hey brass band, you are right in tune with the chafee campaign..always fall back on electability. Here are some responses:
1, Cranston election results are a very good indicator of statewide results..so if you can win in Cranston you can win statewide, the same is true for a community like Warwick. That is why our two current senators started out politically in Cranston and Warwick. Laffey has done very well in Cranston, including defeating in 2002 a well-funded, well-known Democrat, Garabedian, and then defeating a major union attack in 04.
2, Lets use the West poll, although he is a bad pollster, as shown when in 2002 he had York winning by 7 when Carceiri won by 10. West had Laffey behind by 10, and neck-neck with Brown. At this stage of the game, this is very good since Whitehouse and Brown both have held statewide office, Whitehosue ran for governor, while Laffey has been mayor of a city consisting of 10% of the people. West polls all registered voters, which produces inaccurate results. A poll of likely voters who vote in non-presidential years, when turnout is lower and better for a Republican, would probably have Laffey ahead of Brown by 10 and neck and neck with Whitehouse ahead slightly ahead or behind. By the way, Chafee is in bad shape in the general as shown by West-he is below 50% and is ahead by only 5% (within the margin) of Whitehouse. 3, You forget it was Chafee and Senate Repubs who attacked Laffey first...becuase they are so far behind, Laffey is merely dishing back.
But in all honesty, don't you agree Chafee should run in a Democratic primary, he could win that primary with approval numbers over 60%.
I know you will respond back with the same old tunes...he's crazy not funny, he's not really ocnservative although he supports the bush tax cuts, the war and is pro-life, ...so boring and predictable. You should change your name to Aerosmith because ...all you can do on this website is the "Same Old Song and Dance", and when it comes to your belief that Chafee is going to win a Rpeublican primary, the song "Dream On" comes to mind. Keep playing that funky music white boy.
Posted by: Fred Sanford at December 17, 2005 2:40 PM3 things:
1. The numbers aren't off -- if you understood a bit about mathematical problem solving, you always begin with what you are given and state those numbers at top, as I have done, after using numbers provided in a previous post. So, the numbers were based in the polling data and what were wrong conclusions drawn by another poster, and I stand by them. I also believe that when all is said and done you'll see many more independents and dems voting in the republican primary than you people seem to think. I know of at least a half-dozen dem and ind. members of my family and workplace that will be voting in the Rep. primary in favor of Linc.
2. I guess it only fits that Laffey supporters would jump to conclusions without reason, but I am in fact NOT a member of the NEA. Like many teachers in the state, I teach some of the 12 - 18% (depending on whose data you go on) of children that attend private schools in RI. I am, as is my school: union-free.
3. I appologize for my wording - it must have been from that damned WoonsAWcket up-bringing I had. Let me ask again: If laffey winds up losING the primary, how do we know he won't run as an independent (as in not making it to september)?
Posted by: James at December 17, 2005 3:48 PMDear Bad Math Taecher (James)
Posted by: Fred Sanford at December 17, 2005 4:05 PM1, I can see that you can't refute my numbers and instead you are left to saying I know people who will vote for Chafee..yeah, yeah, and I know people who don't know anything about politics, but talk a lot...like you. Like the statment that Democrats will vote for Chafee in a primary, you can't vote in a Republican if you are a registered Democrat, the unions tried to disaffiliate people to do that but only got about 300 people to do it and it failed in 2004.
2, I apologize for assuming you are an NEA member, you probably just agree with them most of the time.
3, you don't even understand the basics of running for office in RI, once you declare as a Republican and no lose in a primary you can't then run as independent and be on the ballot , its the law...at that point Chafee would have to do a write-in campaign for Senate, which you can support. Don't forget to tell your fmaily and friends too. Keep hope alive James, I hope you don't teach math.
oh, come on people.
chafee has poll numbers to back him up. laffey has poll numbers to back him up.
this was one poll taken of 600 rhode island adults. not likely voters. not even registered voters.
settle down. james was right in his broad analysis of the data provided and to ponder if laffey (or chafee for that matter) will drop out of the primary to go independent, and fred sanford was correct to point out Chafee's dismal conservative credentials.
however, i think jimbo brings up a good question: has laffey ever said in public that he is committed to a republican primary? it seems like he's running a textbook independent campaign.
just a thought -- anyone have any inside dirt?
Posted by: john b at December 17, 2005 6:59 PMLaffey is a Republican and will win the primary and the general as one. Period.
http://www.anchorrising.com/barnacles/002359.html
Posted by: oz at December 17, 2005 7:48 PMFred Sanford --
First, I'm not sure which West poll you're looking at. The last one I've seen is from Sept., and it has Chafee ahead of Sheldon by 38 to 25 (with Laffey behind 35-25). I agree with you that these polls are quite dubious, but that's what those numbers are.
Second, I am not a Chafee apologist. I want the candidate most likely to hold the seat for the Republican majority.
Maybe Laffey will convince me that he's the one. He hasn't yet.
Posted by: brassband at December 17, 2005 9:31 PMHi John B. and brassband,
Posted by: Fred Sanford at December 17, 2005 11:08 PMChafee led 41 to 36 over Whitehouse in West's June poll. Oz is right, Laffey has said repeatedly he would NEVER run as independent ever..it was posted on this website. In 04, because of the union effort in the primary, some people encouraged him to run as independent but he refused. Meanwhile Chafee has publicly flirted with leaving the party on many occasions including as recently as Nov. 2004. Furthermore, Chafee have never ruled out (under any circumstances) running as an independent at sometime in the future. Laffey has flexibility in his campaign approach because of how bad Chafee is among Republicans as evidenced by the USA Survey poll and he can appeal to independents with his anti-washington insider lingo, which is fine for him since the insiders in DC support incumbants no matter what. However, Laffey has been clear on his conservative positions on Bush's tax cuts, support of the war, and is pro-life. While Chafee has had the exact opposite position on these fundamental issues. Over time, I hope more of you on this blog will agree with me about Laffey. Nice talking to both of you.
Would you Laffey sycophants answer me one very simple question?
Posted by: Tim at December 17, 2005 11:49 PMWhy isn't Mr. Wonderful Motivational Speaker Can't Miss Wins Whenever He Runs not running for governor??
THAT is the job Steve Laffey covets.
Why no challenge to Carcieri??
It's certainly not a love/respect thing since the governor and his staff can't stand Laffey.
Why isn't Laffey going after the job he really wants?
Mr. Courageous is a phoney and a fraud who doensn't have the guts to run against Carcieri?
Ummmm....yes!
Will,
I don't think you can dismiss Caswell's comment that Toomey was unelectable so easily Toomey proved he was electable in one Congressional district in PA. He proved that he could have won a GOP primary in PA. But the polls never had him winning a statewide Senate race in PA. I think Caswell is on firmer ground saying that Toomey was unelectable than anyone making an assertion that Toomey was electable. After all, Toomey lost the only statewide campaign he ever ran. He never showed that he was electable.
I do think you can make an assertion that a conservative can win statewide in PA. Look at Santorum.
But you have to be careful to distinguish between just any "conservative" and a specific conservative. If Carcieri were running in this Senate race, I think he would beat all other candidates. That means a conservative could win in RI, although it would be a tough race.
Yet I don't think Steve Laffey stands a chance. He has a serious trust issue. I said earlier that I've never seen someone make so many enemies in so little time. This latest incident was a prime example. He went out of his way to belittle a former political ally and then exhibited sarcastic arrogance by not taking the media inquiry about the story seriously. Beyond that, it's just plan weird.
One other note about PA versus RI. In PA, you have the middle part of the state and Pittsburgh which tend to vote conservatively. In RI, you have a state that is as blue as you can get.
Both the Laffey and Chafee camps are comparing this race to PA, yet there are so many differences, I'm not sure it's a valid comparison at all.
Tim,
"Why isn't Mr. Wonderful Motivational Speaker Can't Miss Wins Whenever He Runs not running for governor??
THAT is the job Steve Laffey covets.
Why no challenge to Carcieri??"
The simple reason is that Mayor Laffey supports what Gov. Carcieri is doing for the people of Rhode Island. Rhode Island Republicans may be divided as to whom to support for the U.S. Senate race, however, there is next to none (closer to none) in the Republican Party who have even mentioned the thought of a primary challenge against Gov. Carcieri. Sorry Dem pals, no GOP primary there for you! He has an enviable level of support.
Secondly, I wouldn't necessarily make the assumption that Mayor Laffey "covets" the governorship of RI. Gov. Carcieri works very hard for the people of Rhode Island. However, due to the way that Rhode Island government "works" and the inordinate power of the General Assembly, getting anything of substance accomplished is extraordinarily difficult. The governor's main task is to limit the damage that the corrupt General Assembly does. If he can get his own agenda through, in addition to that, then it's icing on the cake.
Mayor Laffey obviously believes that he can accomplish more in the U.S. Senate than as governor of Rhode Island. That being said, I wouldn't outright rule out a possible gubernatorial run for then Senator Laffey in 2014 or 2018. Of course, after his second Senate term is over in 2018, he might have higher aspirations. ;)
Posted by: Will at December 18, 2005 1:03 AMAnthony,
While I appreciate much of what you've mentioned, there is always a different way to approach the same thing.
You said: "He went out of his way to belittle a former political ally and then exhibited sarcastic arrogance by not taking the media inquiry about the story seriously."
Mayor Laffey didn't take the media inquiries "seriously," because the "news" story was entirely contrived. The Projo knew of this well beforehand, but sat on the story and then released at a particular time for the purpose of offsetting a largely positive story that appeared on the same day. This wasn't some "scoop" that they wanted to get out quickly. It is also not a coincidence that the same story appeared in a Washington DC gossip rag on the same day. It was a "non-news" news story, fairly silly at that, and not particularly worthy of any great attention.
What you infer as sarcasm, Mayor Laffey would see as treating something with a sense of humor, that was humorous. He's not a prude. He also knows when to pick battles and to let other ones go. Do you honestly think he was sitting at his desk, and on a whim commanded "Go pixellate Jackvony!" If he even knew about it beforehand, it probably would have only been in passing. It's not like they put Jackvony's head on a wanted poster, or mailed him a horse's head or something.
"I said earlier that I've never seen someone make so many enemies in so little time."
Laffey likes to take on big challenges. If they are "enemies" of Laffey, that's only because he sees them as standing in the way of good government or the people's best interests. Unfortunately, the Republican Party, just like the other one, has it's share of bottomfeeders who's raison d'etre is their political position. Laffey doesn't consider politics to be a "career." As he likes to say, he's already had a real "career." He just wants to serve the people of Rhode Island, because he doesn't necessarily believe that they have been well-served thusfar.
Posted by: Will at December 18, 2005 1:30 AM"He just wants to serve the people of Rhode Island, because he doesn't necessarily believe that they have been well-served thusfar."
oh come on! Laffey just wants to serve the people? This is all about his ego.
Oh wait, maybe it isn't about his ego. it could be about his desire to serve the Lord. Remember, God spoke to the mayor when he first moved here to tell him to run for senate.
and to think that he wants to serve in the senate b/c he can "get things done" is laughable. The senate is the most deliberate, dilatory branch of our government. what's laffey going to do? does he think he can go down there and buck procedure? Not to mention, how many enemies does he already have down there already? And we already know he's not going to bring home the same federal commitments that chafee has. so how's he going to work for the interests of rhode island? is he going to vote for alito? secure our borders?
bill lynch was on tv this morning hoping that laffey would win the primary!
the strongest voice for the smallest state is going to come from Jack Reed or Sheldon Whitehouse, not Laffey
this is just another example of the rhode island republican party self-destructing. is it too late to start a bull-moose party?
Posted by: james at December 18, 2005 9:56 AMWill,
Most likely the story was 'leaked' by the Chafee camp, although I'm not sure it's a 'leak' if it's a story about something on a publicly accessible website. That doesn't diminish the fact that Laffey's actions were just plain immature and silly.
Also, I think we all know that Laffey is very well aware of just about everything that goes on around him. I find it hard to believe that he didn't know about Jackvony's picture being 'pixellated' out of the photo on his website.
On the 'enemies' topic, Carcieri has developed enemies by taking on entrenched interests, yet most people would still find him to be a unifying presence. Laffey's enemies are not appear to be not only political, but other Republicans who share many of his philosophies.
I'm sure there are a few people in the RI Republican leadership who are there for the status aspect. But I think most people participate in the process because they honestly believe that RI can do better. It's too easy to attain status in RI by simply becoming a Democrat. If someone is protecting their political turf as a Republican, they have to realize their turf is the equivalent of a mini-golf course, not an 18 hole course.
Posted by: Anthony at December 18, 2005 11:31 PMEveryone who has under the Laffey spell must be careful. He is a charmer; your first impression is great. You come away very impressed, he gives great speeches, he is a motivator, etc.
However, give it some time, and that charm wears away. I once felt the same way many of you did, and I no longer feel that way anymore. In fact, I feel stabbed in the back.
Posted by: Robert at December 19, 2005 4:14 PMIs this where we are going now? Feelings?
If you want someone to give you the warm and fuzzies, then go adopt a dog.
If you want someone to represent your best interests with conviction, then Laffey is your man.
I've been keeping an eye on Laffey since April of 2002, and he has done everything he said he would. There were no surprises for me in any of his moves.
Posted by: oz at December 19, 2005 4:29 PMRobert, clearly you feel that way because of your close association with the unions. It's a pity you people can't think for yourselves.
Don't tell me you're not union either, its just not believable.
Posted by: Warbucks at December 19, 2005 4:36 PMRobert, sorry. There is one possibilty that you are not union... that you're one of those stupid people without flood insurance who expects the taxpayers to bail you out...
If you're not all wet, you're union!
Posted by: Warbucks at December 19, 2005 4:39 PMSteve Laffey cares about Steve Laffey. He doesn't care about much else. He's not going to change, so you might as well accept him for who he is, good and bad...reminds me of a story.
An old man was walking in the wintertime and came across a snake that was nearly frozen. Feeling bad for the snake, the old man took the snake into his house and nursed the snake back to health. After the snake became healthy, it bit the old man. The old man asked, "I saved your life, why did you bite me?" The snake replied, "You knew I was a snake when you brought me into your house. I'm a snake and I bite people. You shouldn't be surprised that I bit you, too."
Posted by: Anthony at December 19, 2005 10:28 PMWill, for someone so enamoured with Steve Laffey you certainly don't know him very well.
Posted by: Tim at December 20, 2005 7:18 AMGOVERNOR is the job he covets and always has.
Any notion you're promoting that he's a fan of the Gov. Carcieri and supports him is hilarious.
Nobody buys that nonsense, Will.
Laffey would gladly put a knife in the back of the Governor to get him out of the way but can't because he doesn't have the politcal strength to do so and Steve Laffey doesn't have the balls to challenge Carcieri face to face.
Laffey won't run for re-election as mayor in Cranston because all those big union contracts are coming due and he doesn't want any part of it.
Laffey won't run for a second tier state office because he's Steve Laffey and being only a 2 term mayor of Cranston makes him too big (lol) for those offices so what's left that's high profile enough for Laffey's ego??
The Senate!
That's the only reason Laffey is running for that office and that's why he brings no broad Senatorial vision to the table.
It's not the job he wants.
Laffey wants to be the Governor of the state of Rhode Island.
He just doesn't have the balls to challenge the guy who is.