I would say the only truly significant piece of information to come out of these polls is that we now know that 16-17% of those polled are 'undecided'. That seems like a fairly reasonable number considering how early in the political season it is.

The really INTERESTING number is that 75% of those polled have a negative opinion of the legislature. And 5% don't know. I'm assuming that the 20% with a positive opinion owe their jobs to a friend or relative in the state house.

The RIC poll regarding the Chafee-Laffey race makes clear that the primary will boil down to the percentage of the GOP primary electorate comprised of unaffiliated voters. If Chafee needs 50% of GOP primary voters to be unaffiliated in order to win, he's toast.

Conservative pundits are now speculating that Chafee will refile as an independent candidate by next Wednesday instead of risking losing the GOP primary. http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmUzNTgwZDZmMjI3ODQ3MjhlMjNiMmJkMjU3ODE1NWM=

A three-way race between Chafee, Whitehouse and Laffey would be facinating, and there probably wouldn't be more than 5% difference between first and third place.

Hello!! ... McFly!!!

You can look at this a million ways. But bad thinking produces bad analysis and bad results. Look at the numbers based upon what you know, not on your guesswork about the disaffiliates.

The people will elect Steve Laffey the next Senator from RI because he is the only guy on the ballot who has done and will continue to do something for the average working family. Chafee will be crushed because he is not a Republican (and he lies too much), and Casablanca will wilt like a dry blade of grass in the summer sun when he goes head to head with Laffey.

Howl and scream, rant and rave all you want. That’s a fact, Jack.

End of story.

J Mahn

'That’s a fact, Jack.'

Actually, it's conjecture based on hope. An unpredictable future event can never be accurately categorized as 'fact'

Hi!
I will be running as a Republican for Town Council in Hopkinton.
Turnout will be the key.I like both Laffey and Chafee but will vote with Laffey on primary day.
Since probably at least some if not many GOP primary crossovers voters for Chafee dislike the Governor on issues such as labor that they are likely to vote for Chafee but vote for Michaud at the same time as a protest!I assume the Governor will win his primary but I expect a reasonably impressive protest vote against him,particularly by unaffiliateds voting in the GOP primary.What is your take on that?
Regards,
Scott

The Chafee Camp and Ian "Bud-A-Day" Lang are sweating right now, but I still think Chafee's name recognition will carry him to the top. I am, going to vote for him because he's the only one with any idea of how to curtail federal spending.

By the way, has anyone noticed that all three candidates (I won't admit that Carl Sheeler is a viable candidate) range from extremely wealthy to filthy rich?

Makes you wonder how the little guy can make a difference :(

Well, another poll. It is good that RIC found 250 voters and tried to do it right. However, there are clear problems with it. First, please note that in yesterday's poll he said that 25% of registered voters said they would vote in a Repub primary. This is rather absurd. There are 660,000 registered voters so are we talking about 165,000 Repub primary voters. Even 25% of voters who voted in 2004 election would be about 110,000. To put these numbers in perspective, the York-Whitehouse primary in 2002 generated about 120,000 votes, and the highest Repub primary was 45,000.

Second, his poll yesterday said that 25% percent of voters will vote in Repub primary, and 14% of his survey yesterday said they were Republican. Thus, the mix of Repub primary voters would be about 56% Repub to 44% Indep, ( ie 25% of voters will vote in Repub primary and there are 14% Repub voters). This is rather high percentage of indepedents in a Republican primary, (there are 70,000 registered Republicans remember) but this was the ratio used by ARG poll as well. Instead we get funny scenarios from RIC like 60% of a Repub primary being independents.

Even with these two significant flaws, never mind lack of primary voting history, we have a poll showing if 50% of the primary was Repub and 50% was independent and astronomical turnout, Chafee is ahead of Laffey by 1 and Chafee is at 39%. Since undecideds break heavily against the incumbant, under even this scenario(best case scenario for Chafee), Chafee gets beaten badly.

It does look like the cross tabs on Republicans and indepedents appear reasonable. Laffey leads among Republicans by a huge margin, and Chafee only has 28%, which means he will struggle to get to one-third among Republicans. Among independents, Chafee is at 49% just below 50%, which means with undecideds breaking against Chafee, Laffey will make it very close among Independents.

Thus, Chafee's chances in a Republican primary are just about zero ... then he makes us all proud by being the only Republican to vote for some kind troop withdrawl in Iraq before the military says conditions are right. (I guess McCain's visit helped Chafee make up his mind on the issue.) Either Chafee is going independent or he stays in the primary because he just has a death wish and an irrational hatred for Laffey.

Can all of you still feel the Chafee momentum from the relentess attack ads and the visits from GOP pols?

While I'm ambivalent about putting too much trust in polls, nevermind one done through RIC, I do find it to be somewhat encouraging. I suppose there's a little something for everyone in it.

I would suggest quite honestly that if 50% of the voters in a Republican primary are not even Republicans, not only would we make big Rhode Island history, but that it would be counter to all known voting trends, in regard to how people actually vote at primaries, regardless of party. Primary voters tend to be people who strongly believe in the principles of the party to which they are voting, not players in a gigantic chess game. Being that primary voters tend to be the "true believers" of the party, I do not think that bodes well at all for Sen. Chafee.

I was very impressed by Laffey's numbers among actual Republican voters. It is their primary after all, isn't it? I think most Democrats -- who might be likely primary voters (again, their primary voting history is a big indicator) -- will be more interested in getting their own Democrat elected, then helping a faux Republican remain in his ill-gotten position.

To answer another question, while all three real Senate candidates may be rich, Laffey is the only one among the three who actually earned his own money through work. While I'm no class warrior, I do think that will resonate more with blue collar, traditionalists, Reagan Democrats and the like, than you might otherwise think.

I'm still confused about the logic some people are using. Let me get this straight: we are to believe that there are a large number of either independents and/or disaffiliated Democrats who will vote in the Republican primary to ensure Linc's victory over Laffey. Despite the fact that Linc polls much stronger against Sheldon, and can very effectively fight him for the moderate middle ground in the general election.

It still seems to me that Linc's best shot is to run as an Independent, and try to marginalize Laffey on the right and Sheldon on the left.

On the other hand, a Laffey/Sheldon race would probably end up much closer than the polls currently indicate. Let's face it, an up close and personal fight between a kid who grew up on the streets of Cranston and a rich kid from Newport plays into some very deep Rhode Island psychology. All it would take is one mistake by Sheldon (which Laffey will press him hard to make, as he emphasizes his support from the Myrth York wing of his party), and we would end up with a very close race.

Frankly, this beats the World Series of Poker any day.

The true mindset of the Laffey campaign and Laffey humself is revealed when they keep floating rumors in public about Chafee leaving the party and running as an Independent. Not the actions of a group confident about their chances in a Republican primary.

while i understand the allure of the laffey-chafee contest, i am still left to wonder where all of the press is surrounding the governor's numbers considering previous polling on the gov's race showing fogarty close behind or leading were broadcast far and wide.

if we are to take the laffey-chafee numbers seriously, then why not the gov's 54% positives and 5 point lead?

ok. you may not go back to debated the senate primary

Greg:

You're so ... technical.

All I can say is:
Saepe ne utile quidem est scire quid futurum sit

J Mahn

Joe,

In Rhode Island you need not know what will be except that the taxpayer will continue to be milked not unlike a cow.

I'll be happy if Laffey wins OR Whitehouse wins. I just want to see Chafee sent packing.

Dear JohnB,

From this sample, I take the Governor's numbers seriously. However, I know this sample will not match the sample on election day.

Part of Laffey's strategy apparently calls for promoting the idea that Chafee might run as an independent in an attempt to neutralize support from the GOP nationally. A 3 way is also the only way for Laffey to win the general election by getting Whitehouse and Chafee to split the moderate vote.

There is no other way that Laffey can win with 33% of the vote and Laffey is struggling to show that he can get the support of more than 33% of the electorate. Judging by this latest poll, Laffey may have trouble even getting to 33%.

Other darkhorse candidates have pulled off massive comebacks, but usually this is because the other side wasn't paying attention which is definitely not the case in the RI Senate race.

The National Review Online picked up on the so-called "Chafee going Independent" story. That was a nice plant on Laffey's behalf, although it does make me question NRO's coverage of other races. I thought their staff had a better grasp of political reality.

What flavor martini y'all think Shel is kicking back with right now as the GOP Hell in a Cell continues?
As somebody pointed out here earlier, the nastiness between Chafee and Laffey is driving up the negatives on both sides quickly. Shel's certainly no stud on the campaign trail, but he'll be entering the general with relatively low negatives against a guy whose negatives will be in the ionosphere.
For either Chafee or Laffey to beat Whitehouse, the GOP primary winner is going to need the votes of those who voted for the loser in the primary. Machtley's people sucked it up and voted for Almond in '94, but I don't see Laffey supporters willing to get behind Linc in the general if he wins (and Laffey's people have burned too many bridges to expect Chafee's support in the general if their man wins).
Think about it - Carcieri is governor because Whitehouse's people wouldn't get behind York. And this race is twice as nasty as Whitehouse-York ever got.

Rhody,

You're bang on. If it's a race between Whitehouse and Chafee, this life-long Republican is voting for Whitehouse just because I hate RINOs even more than I hate liberals. At least you can count on a liberal to screw you over. With Mr. Finger-in-the-wind you're always left guessing until he actually votes.

I don't like Laffey, either. I just think he's the least sucky candidate running.

Rhody,

An insightful comment. Laffey, Whitehouse, Myrth and Linc in fact represent four different political orientations/segments, none of which is adequately described by the left/right, Dem/Rep party labeling system we use.

Which brings me back to the previous posts. Unless Linc is very sure about his chances in the Republican primary, and logically, this must rest on his confidence that independents (not disaffiliated Democrats) will come out for him, then both his, and Laffey's best chance may be the three way race.

Time will tell. But stranger things have happened this year.

I don't see Laffey supporting Chafee after the primary. Greg's whole "it's my ball and if I don't win, I'll take away the ball" comment is typical of the Laffey mindset. It can't come as too much of a surprise. Bennett did the same thing to Carcieri after the primary.

Make no mistake that Whitehouse will be tough for Chafee to beat. He'll be entering the general election with alot of money and low negatives. The general election will be a TV intensive media driven campaign, so his stiffness and arrogance won't be on display. And let's not forget that Whitehouse has already won statewide.

I think a large number of people who think they will vote in the Republican primary will find out on election day that they can't. Either they didn't realize they would have to disaffiliate or it somehow didn't go through (it happened to me).

On a side note, I will not vote for Laffey unless I see a poll that shows that he can beat or at least approach Whitehouse. I was planning to vote for him for a while, but if he can't win, what choice do I have?

Anthony,

I thought Jim Bennett had made a point of handing Don Carcieri a big campaign contribution at a high-profile public event soon after the Republican primary in 2002.

Republicans would be better off if Whitehouse beat Chafee than if Chafee won reelection. See http://auh2orepublican.blogspot.com/2005/08/what-to-do-about-insufferable-senator.html

"I will not vote for Laffey unless I see a poll that shows that he can beat or at least approach Whitehouse. I was planning to vote for him for a while, but if he can't win, what choice do I have?"

Mario:

Have you recently had a lobotomy.

You'd better do a gut check my friend. If they did a poll that said all people named Mario should jump off the Newport Bridge I guess you'd only be buying that $2 token.

Vote for the person you want to win not the one the pollsters tell you to vote for.

I can't believe you actually said that.

J Mahn

Andrew,
Bennett probably did make a public campaign contribution, but if you talk to any of Myrth York's people, they'll tell you that his campaign assisted them on the low down during the general election.

Mario,
You might not realize it, but there are many people who would rather see a Democrat win than for the Republicans to keep the Senate.

Note the trend on this blog: Greg saying he'd vote for Whitehouse over Chafee, AuH20 Republican suggesting that it would be better for the GOP if Whitehouse won instead of Chafee, etc.

This is what we're left with--Mr. 33%, Steve La33ey, can't win unless it's a three way, so he creates speculation that Chafee will go independent. Knowing that many Republicans won't vote for Laffey because he can't beat Whitehouse, they say "Gee, it would be better for a Democrat to win the Senate seat anyway."

I, for one, would rather keep the Senate in GOP hands rather than indulge Mr. La33ey's ego.

"You'd better do a gut check my friend."

It's not about guts, it's about facing reality. Chafee will always have problems getting reelected, which means moderates will have another chance at the seat in six years. If Whitehouse manages to con people into electing him he'll never go away. That's what we're facing.

Anthony,

Has it ever occured to you that some folks are floating rumors about Chafee running as an independent, in the hope that he does the exact opposite, and stays in the Republican primary? Once he's in the GOP primary, there is a lot less wiggle room to operate with, while pandering for votes. It's called reverse pyschology.

That being said, I think the chances of Chafee running as an independent candidate are greater than one might think. Given that RI law does not require one to actually disaffiliate from the Republican Party, in order to avoid the primary, and that Chafee really does not need RNC / NRSC funds to finance his campaign, I think it is more probable than not, that he will take the plunge.

Finally, I don't happen to think that the timing of the RIGOP State Convention, being the day after the candidate filing deadline, is pure coincidence.

Mario,

I'm not sure you quite grasp the lack of a dilemma that most real Republicans are facing in regard to this race. Chafee IS Whitehouse. They walk alike, they dress alike, they act alike, and think alike. If we lose Chafee, we are not losing much at all. Their mindsets, their beliefs about virtually every major issue out there are nearly identical. Right now, it's nothing beyond party label.

Secondly, the Senate is in most probability, not going to be won or lost on a single vote. Frankly, even if it was, we have no guarantee whatsoever that Chafee would even stay with the GOP in that case. He has floated around the idea of switching to the majority party in the past if the GOP lost power, so that's a non-starter.

You're better off voting for the candidate which you think is best in a particular race, and let the dice fall where they may in regards to national political calculus. I'm not worried about which party controls the Senate, because I'm of the belief that we [Republicans] will continue to control it, if we deserve to control it -- not throw our party's principles out the door to do it.

I'm with Laffey, because I think he has the right set of principles, has the proven ability to defend them, and I think he can win against Whitehouse.

PS Anthony is right about one thing: "I don't see Laffey supporting Chafee after the primary." I don't see it either.

I think to say Chafee = Whitehouse is a bit unfair. While Chafee often two-steps in and out of the Republican party, supporting an initiative here voting against a judge there, we'll have in whitehouse someone who'll be much farther left of center.

So while I don't plan to cast a primary vote for Chafee, if he does win the primary I certainly will be voting for him over any other currently listed candidate.

Will;

Even if they are completely identical, there is one significant difference: Whitehouse is a Chafee you will never get rid of. At somepoint it will be possible to replace Chafee with a real Republican, but it's time to come to the realization that this is not the year. Casting a vote for Laffey, while I know it would feel good, ultimately means that the seat is lost for good. That is not a consequence people should be taking lightly.

Mario:

What's the problem? You don't understand English? Your response missed my entire point.

Laffey can not only beat Casablanca, he will beat him.

Forget the polls. They mean nothing.

Make your vote count for something. Its the only bullet you have. By believing the polls you negate your ability to make meaningful change. Men and women of courage and great valor have died to secure these rights.

The free ballot (your single vote) is your ultimate freedom and your greatest responsibility. Join the reform revolution. Be an agent of change. Be a leader not a follower. Help put Steve Laffey in the US Senate. You can actually vote for him twice. Once on September 12th and then again on November 7th.

J Mahn

It will be fun to see if Fred and Will's prediction that Chafee runs as an independent will come true. I predict Chafee runs as a Republican.

Will, it's obvious that Laffey can't win a general election without a three way. All of the polls show Chafee winning the GOP primary, albeit closely and often within the margin of error. So why would a candidate leave a primary race in which he is the front-runnter to create a three-way general election race that virutally assures they can't win? The analysis doesn't make sense.

As for the RI GOP endorsement and convention, it really doesn't mean anything. We saw that in 2002 and 1994. If Laffey wins the endorsement, it may help his national fundraising operation, but probably won't have much effect on voters.

If Laffey loses the endorsement, he can always fall back on the line that he is an outsider, not a party guy and so forth.

The prediction is: "Either Chafee is going independent or he stays in the primary because he just has a death wish and an irrational hatred for Laffey." My analysis is discussed above. Bottom line Chafee gets killed among Repubs and can't get over 50% among independents, that's why Chafee has almost zero chance in a Repub primary. (By the way Chafee is always below 50%, actually below 45%,in the general election, which makes it very unlikely that the incumbent could win the general election as well.)

Keep hope alive Chafee guys.

Fred,
Your logic astounds me. Chafee CAN'T win because he polls at 43% to Whitehouse's 40%, but Laffey CAN win although he polls at 27% and Whitehouse polls at 58% against Laffey--well above the 50% mark. You know as well as I do, that this means Laffey would need to do more than convince undecideds. In order to win, Laffey would need to convince current Whitehouse supporters to vote for him.

What this tells me is: 1. Chafee is the only guy who can beat Whitehouse and 2. you really don't think Laffey can win, but you probably have a personal interest in backing him.

On the Chafee will become an independent issue, it looks like you've hedged your bets. You float rumors that he's going to become an independent, but when you're called on it, you're unwilling to back them up. So your "analysis" is "right" either way, but you really offer no conclusion. You should be an economist.

Another Chafee treat from Anthony.

First, it is clear that Anthony does not dispute that Chafee is getting clobbered among Republicans and can't get over 50% among independents and thus has a near zero chance in the Repub primary. Now based on the facts Chafee should become an independent. Others see this as well. For example, Chris Cillizia at the Washington Post recently wrote: "Circle June 28 on your calendars. That's the last day for candidates to file for the Senate race. In theory, that day would be Chafee's final chance to abandon the
Republican Party and run for reelection as an independent ... polling continues to show him as no better than an even-money bet in the
Republican primary race against Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey."

Now although it may rational for Chafee to leave, he may not for his own eccentric issues. If he were to stay in the primary it makes no sense for him to vote against Alito, vote for a withdrawl from Iraq, and continue to vote against tax cuts. As the Wall Street Journal recently reported: Chafee "sometimes seems to want to lose his primary this year." That is why I stated earlier Chafee has some kind of death wish...maybe in his heart he agrees with Anthony that Chafee should never have entered politics. Staying in the primary could also be an expression of irrational hatred for Laffey, which the Chafee camp has plenty of when it comes to Laffey. Chafee certainly exhibited irrational hatred for Laffey when back in Sept. 2005 in the Pawtucket Times Chafee stated he wanted to end Laffey's career. So that is the reason I must hedge when it comes to predicting Chafee ...he is a bit eccentric.

As for the general election, Anthony misses the key point. An incumbant who is below 45% is usually toast, especially one who over the last few months has spent hundreds of thousands in ads, and watched his lead go down from 12 to 2 points in Rasmussen, and from 19 to 3 points by RIC. As pollingreport.com stated: "our analysis of 155 polls reveals that, in races that include an incumbent, the traditional answers are wrong. Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger." The undeicdeds will break heavily against Chafee. In contrast, a challenger's poll numbers at this time are very meaningless because opinions are not set in stone and are changeable for challenegers. Although according to RIC poll, Laffey trails by 31 points. These numbers can be overcome. For example in 1992, one month before the general election, Repub Pine was behind O'Neill by 32 points and Repub Mayer was behind McKenna by 25 points (according to the West bogus poll), but they came back and won. So Laffey can come from behind in Nov, but Chafee being an incumbant who has been campaigning and spending money for months is below 45% tells me, he won't make it.

Keep hope alive keep Chafee guys.

"Keep hope alive Chafee guys."

Laffey knows that the only shot he has is for a 3 way race-it is NOT going to happen. He is the only one who ever mentions it. If anyone runs as an independent it will be him. He should have stayed and cleaned up the mess in Cranston. This con man is done. As far as those of us in Cranston who put are sweat into his last campaign-
NOBODY'S LAFFEYNG NOW!