September 12, 2006
Primary Results & Magic Numbers
Secretary of State: (98% of precincts reporting)
| Ralph Mollis | 38,731 | 52.7% |
| Guillame de Ramel | 34,785 | 47.3% |
To catch up, De Ramel needs to win…
- 80.4% of the remaining vote, if 80,000 people voted.
- 57.4% of the remaining vote, if 100,000 people voted.
- 54.2% of the remaining vote, if 120,000 people voted.
US Senate: (52% of precincts reporting)
| Lincoln Chafee | 23,403 | 56.1% |
| Steve Laffey | 18,293 | 43.9% |
To catch up, Laffey needs to win…
- More votes than are remaining, if 35,000 people voted.
- More votes than are remaining, if 45,000 people voted.
- 69.2% of the remaining vote, if 55,000 people voted.
Secretary of State: (72% of precincts reporting)
| Ralph Mollis | 25,796 | 51.1% |
| Guillame de Ramel | 24,637 | 48.9% |
To catch up, De Ramel needs to win…
- 52.0% of the remaining vote, if 80,000 people voted.
- 51.2% of the remaining vote, if 100,000 people voted.
- 50.8% of the remaining vote, if 120,000 people voted.
US Congress, Dist 2: (69% of precincts reporting)
| James Langevin | 17,295 | 61.7% |
| Jennifer Lawless | 10,725 | 38.3% |
To catch up, Lawless needs to win…
- 77.4% of the remaining vote, if 40,000 people voted.
- 64.9% of the remaining vote, if 50,000 people voted.
- 60.3% of the remaining vote, if 60,000 people voted.
At this point, Reginald Centracchio, Jon Scott, and Elizabeth Roberts all seem pretty safe, so I'll take them off the board. Here's the last post that had them all...
US Senate: (25% of precincts reporting)
| Lincoln Chafee | 12,045 | 53.9% |
| Steve Laffey | 10,292 | 46.1% |
To catch up, Laffey needs to win…
- 56.9% of the remaining vote, if 35,000 people voted.
- 53.9% of the remaining vote, if 45,000 people voted.
- 52.7% of the remaining vote, if 55,000 people voted.
Lt. Gov (R): (25% of precincts reporting)
| Reginald Centracchio | 12,165 | 63.9% |
| Kerry King | 6,873 | 36.1% |
To catch up, King needs to win…
- 74.1% of the remaining vote, if 30,000 people voted.
- 62.6% of the remaining vote, if 40,000 people voted.
- 58.5% of the remaining vote, if 50,000 people voted.
US Congress, Dist 1: (34% of precincts reporting)
| Jon Scott | 6,128 | 72.3% |
| Ed Leather | 2,349 | 27.7% |
To catch up, Leather needs to win…
- 79.0% of the remaining vote, if 15,000 people voted.
- 66.4% of the remaining vote, if 20,000 people voted.
- 61.4% of the remaining vote, if 25,000 people voted.
Secretary of State: (14% of precincts reporting)
| Ralph Mollis | 4,057 | 42.5% |
| Guillame de Ramel | 5,488 | 57.5% |
To catch up, Mollis needs to win…
- 51.0% of the remaining vote, if 80,000 people voted.
- 50.8% of the remaining vote, if 100,000 people voted.
- 50.6% of the remaining vote, if 120,000 people voted.
Lt. Gov (D): (14% of precincts reporting)
| Elizabeth Roberts | 7,592 | 81.9% |
| Spencer Dickinson | 1,677 | 18.1% |
To catch up, Dickinson needs to win…
- 54.2% of the remaining vote, if 80,000 people voted.
- 53.3% of the remaining vote, if 100,000 people voted.
- 52.7% of the remaining vote, if 120,000 people voted.
US Congress, Dist 2: (20% of precincts reporting)
| James Langevin | 3,410 | 55.5% |
| Jennifer Lawless | 2,737 | 44.5% |
To catch up, Lawless needs to win…
- 51.0% of the remaining vote, if 40,000 people voted.
- 50.8% of the remaining vote, if 50,000 people voted.
- 50.6% of the remaining vote, if 60,000 people voted.
As a conservative, I'm pulling for Laffey, but I'm not sure he could win in the General Election. Oh well, as I live in Texas, I can only hope.
I'm not sure Chafee has a shot either, even if I do consider him a most "liberal" republican.
Posted by: GM Roper at September 12, 2006 9:14 PMChafee is killing him! WOOOOOOHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!
Posted by: John Ether at September 12, 2006 10:06 PMHuge turnout...almost at the record, and we only are at 65%
Posted by: Joel at September 12, 2006 10:08 PMI'm a conservative too, but I'd rather have a senator who votes my way 25% of the time(Chafee) than none of the time(Whitehouse).
Posted by: swami at September 12, 2006 10:10 PMWashington
Posted by: James Biddle at September 12, 2006 10:22 PMis safe for Chafe!
Posted by: James Biddle at September 12, 2006 10:23 PMI really hope Mollis wins. After the last few months of reading Rhode Island's Future, I know exactly why I shouldn't vote for him.
Posted by: Mario at September 12, 2006 10:28 PMLAFFEY CONCEDES!
Posted by: Joel at September 12, 2006 10:41 PM From the preliminary numbers, it sounds like Cranston didn't come through for Laffey, which would be the difference in this race (and one of the stations reported Chafee actually won a precinct in western Cranston).
After all, they know him best.
Out of pure respect for Lincoln Chafee, I will be writing in his father's name in November. I'll still be voting Republican, just like he did in 2004.
Posted by: Greg at September 12, 2006 10:44 PMI beg everybody on this board to get behind Sue Stenhouse in November. Mollis must be stopped.
Posted by: Rhody at September 12, 2006 10:48 PMGotta feel real good about those Democrats helping win the Republican primary! Do the math on the total votes for other statewide Republicans and you can see as much as between 20 and 50% fewer votes cast in those races. Way to go, RIGOP!!! Forgot about gaining a few seats in the General Assembly, you cannot even control your own primary.
The disaffiliation process is a joke - people across the country do not understand it. At least Bush and the NRSC are consistent in their win at all costs strategies - they have no shame but that will come back to bite them. Let's get Linc into the Senate so we can see him dissaffiliate from the Republican party and then have the last laugh over everyone.
Now we can all sleep safer...right.
Tim2
Posted by: Tim2 at September 12, 2006 11:06 PMI was at the Laffey party down in Warwick (and so I'm told on t.v.)
The mood was upbeat until channel 12 showed Chafee ahead by four thousand votes with 81 percent of precincts reporting.
Laffey threw his support behind Chafee. I really don't think I can do that.
Posted by: don roach at September 12, 2006 11:43 PMMollis must be stopped? Are we forgetting PATRICK KENNEDY? Will we throw 100% support behind this Scott guy? I'd say almost 70% is pretty good
Posted by: dwinger at September 13, 2006 12:30 AMI will not, repeat will not, vote for Chafee under any circumstances.
Up until now, I've been saying that if Chafee wins the primary I'd just "sit out" that race in November.
But in light of how Chafee openly courted non-Republicans to steal the primary, and the national GOP backing him in that effort - when they have no business getting involved in a state primary - I'm really considering voting for Whitehouse in November ... and I'm about as "far right" as they come.
In this primary the GOP and RIGOP have effectively said "F-you" to the Republican base.
Yeah, Whitehouse represents everything I loathe politically. But then, so to does Chafee.
Perhaps I'll calm down and go back to sitting out the Senate race in November. But after being stabbed in the back by the national GOP, tonight I'm really feeling like yelling "F-you" back at the newly liberal national GOP establishment and voting for Whitehouse.
If we're fated to have a liberal in the Senate, and one backed by his national party, then we might as well have one with a "D" after his name rather than a pretender.
The national GOP ran a smear campaign against a relatively "genuine" Republican - only to protect a liberal Republican.
The national GOP has lost its way, and deserves to lose Congress.
Posted by: Tom W at September 13, 2006 12:31 AMDwinger, you're right. Patrick lost my vote when he cast his lot with the legbreakers. At least Langevin had the testicular fortitude to just say no to that crew.
Posted by: Rhody at September 13, 2006 12:46 AMWhile I largely agree with Tom's commentary, I will not consider voting for Whitehouse. However, that doesn't mean that I plan to now vote for the lesser of two evils, Mr. Chafee. I will most likely make a write-in vote. I believe that Mr. Chafee is a good man, but he allowed an absolutely evil campaign to be waged on his behalf by the NRSC. I cannot forgive that. I voted for Senator Chafee in 2000, and have truly regreted it ever since.
All that being said, I'm not going to put down any Laffey supporter, who decides for party reasons, to vote for Senator Chafee in November. That's a personal decision and I respect that. However, for me personally, this election is now over.
Posted by: Will at September 13, 2006 1:36 AMI'm also planning to hold my nose and vote for Chafee, if only because I'd rather write in Joe Stalin than vote for Sheldon Whitehouse. I'm still extremely upset with the way the national and state party machinery turned on Laffey.
Posted by: Roger Williams at September 13, 2006 3:40 AMI'm sure the Chafee camp is scared about the six people that post on this board either not voting or voting for Whitehouse. You're irrelevant! :-)
You all sound like you need your pacifiers.
Posted by: Rino Cooke at September 13, 2006 9:13 AMRino, they ARE concerned about how to win back the 30,000 voters who DIDN'T support Mr. "My Daddy Used to be Senator" and they should be.
Posted by: Greg at September 13, 2006 9:33 AMHey Rhody, does Sue Stenhouse have a website? can you post her link for me id she does? I am an independent trying to decide who I am voting for in the general election.
thx
"does Sue Stenhouse have a website?"
(Thanks for asking, Noni.)
http://www.stenhouse2006.com/