It seems to me that the Democrats had a clear and very simple theme-'Vote for Change-Vote Democrat". The Republican Party must develop a clear theme, i.e. "Do the Right Thing" or "Vote the person not the party"

How many people who usually vote straight Republican didn't this time for the sole reason of fragging Chafee? And how many of those failed to vote for Stenhouse because she sided with Chafee in the primary? Just a thought.

I had mentioned this phenomenon with Andrew much earlier today, so thanks for looking into that. I don't know if it is always to the detriment to the GOP specifically, but it was enough of a factor so as to sway close races in the wrong direction. I'm not sure if it was Bush, Iraq, or any other single issue, or just a cumulative effect of a number of things, but all the vote totals seemed out of whack with what one would have expected under "normal" circumstances. But again, this wasn't a normal election season, was it?

Even though I typically do vote a straight Republican ballot, I never use the straight Republican "select all" option when I vote, for the sole reason that I prefer to think when I vote, instead of going "baaa". I individually select each candidate, occasionally leaving one or more of them blank (undervoting) or writing in a candidate. I even take the time to read the ballot questions before I vote "approve" or "reject" (yes, a rarity!)

I know for a fact, that at least in my area, straight party voting made a big difference in the outcome of several local races. I gathered some results from a particular polling place just as it closed, and as soon as I heard the "straight ticket" number (which is the first one they read-off), I knew we were going to have a very long night.

My hope is that the political atmosphere will be different in two years, where we will not only have well-qualified candidates and the resources to back them, but also fewer national issues clouding the electorate's collective judgment. What's happening 6000 miles away for most people shouldn't have an effect on a local Rep race, or tip the balance in a mayoral election (of course, if you believe in the Butterfly Effect, it certainly can).

I also think that all the publicity and heaps of money thrown about regarding the casino issue, even though it went down in flames, had the effect of bolstering turnout and energizing different sides on the issue -- by targeting people who normally don't vote, or who were "recruited" as single issue voters -- so as to be detrimental to our folks, even though they were generally the "better" candidates (a perfect example would be Allan Fung, if it doesn't end up going our way). For once, Linc Chafee was right about something, it was a "perfect storm." However, it was never an inevitable one.

"How many people who usually vote straight Republican ..."

Don't know about this time. But in 2004, 14,000 Republicans "pulled" the Republican lever.

If the issue was straight democrat ticket voting Carcieri would have lost. Obviously people made the CHOICE to vote for Whitehouse and then Carcieri. That's what the results tell me. The real problem for Republicans is that the electorate prefer a party that has values close to their own. It's why the Republicans are successful in the South and not here. For Republicans to be successful here, they need to understand the idea of the independent man. Forget the social issues and being the tough guys standing in the bedroom door like a George Wallace at the schoolhouse. ONLY TALK ECONOMICS, NO TAXES and you'll get the votes. Talk all the bull about who sleeps with who, who wears condoms, any of the really personal choice issues and in New England you'll be DEAD on ARRIVAL. Carcieri's near defeat at the hands of a Fogarty, the loss of every Republican entered race should tell you that.

>>The real problem for Republicans is that the electorate prefer a party that has values close to their own. It's why the Republicans are successful in the South and not here.

For most Rhode Islanders, Republican values are their own.

The RI Democratic Party is made up of a "devil's pact" between two wings: the labor union/ corruption wing (those who leverage government power strictly for their own enrichment) and the welfare wing (i.e., the "East Side" liberals), whose mission in life is to leverage government power to redistribute wealth from those who earn it to those who don't.

The former are essentially apolitical as to social values, and the latter are way out of step with the social values of the average Rhode Islander.

Those two special interests have taken over the Democratic Party, here and nationally. So while it spouts "working families" it is all spin.

For example, how can one reconcile the Democratic Party's subservience to the teachers unions to the interests of public school dependent "working families" desire to have a quality education for their children?

The problem is, the hierarchy of the RIGOP is essentially composed of "fellow travelers" of the above. You've got the Traficante-Levesque type "Republicans" that are themselves of the union-corruption ilk, and the Chafee type "Republicans" that are of the welfare ilk.

The average Rhode Island "working family" wants a fair shake, a good education for their children, and an environment offering "good jobs" (which in turn requires a positive business climate).

The RI Democratic Party is against all of those, as is the leadership of the RIGOP (Carcieri excepted).

The national Republican Party is aligned with the interests of Rhode Island's "working families."

If the RIGOP can be aligned with the National GOP (which in turned needs some realignment to bring it into line with the Republican base), the GOP can and should be the Party of working families in RI.

Carcieri won because he was smart enough not to bring abortion or gay marriage into the campaign (I get the impression his wife really drives the social conservatism). But now that he no longer has to worry about re-election, he may be more willing to touch those third rails. The impact the gay marriage debate will have on the House leadership will be fun to watch - does Murphy purge Fox?

The Board of Elections does in fact track straight party voters and that data is available for '04, '02, etc... on their website in the mass download of precinct level information. Im assuming we will have this data as well when the BoE posts this data for '06.

the numbers are there, but they haven't been officially released yet

straight-ticket GOP: ~18,000
straight-ticket Dem: ~61,000

"If the issue was straight democrat ticket voting Carcieri would have lost."

I disagree with this, only due to the way it was worded. Carcieri was fortunate that his personal appeal, as well as the desire by the electorate to counter the General Assembly with more than a rubber stamp was enough to save him. He won in spite of straight ticket voting -- barely. I never said it was the sole factor. What I said was that it was enough of a factor, so as to make a difference in the races, which under other circumstances, would have been close in the other direction (Stenhouse, Fung, and numerous Rep races). Even if straight ticket voting was only say 6-8% higher than usual, it was enough to tip the balance in a number of races around the state.