Anchor Rising: One Republican Frontrunner Almost Tied with Senator Obama; the Other Still Trails

August 9, 2007

One Republican Frontrunner Almost Tied with Senator Obama; the Other Still Trails

Carroll Andrew Morse

For the first time in several weeks at least, there’s a major split in how well the Republican Presidential frontrunners are doing against one of the major Democratic candidates as measured by Rasmussen's head-to-head polling (survey conducted August 6-7)…

Rudy Giuliani 43%
Barack Obama 44%

Fred Thompson 39%
Barack Obama 46%

Three quick comments…

Was it the invade Pakistan comment, or is it just a generic wearing-out of his freshness that’s causing Obama to lose support to the GOP frontrunner with more executive experience?
If Obama loses the electability argument, he’s going to get crushed by the Clinton machine.
This result is a sign that Fred Thompson has pushed the non-candidacy phase of his candidacy as far as is useful.

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As many on this blog have observed, these polls don't mean much in reality at this point, even if they are based on likely voters. . . because the only initial poll that will matter is Iowa Dem. caucus-goers.

I do think that Obama is losing ground in the general population at this point. I think people get tired of the flavor of the month after a while. And the more he talks, the more he shows that he's still got a long way to go to be ready for prime time. BUT -- keep in mind that he will get better.

Posted by: brassband at August 9, 2007 9:37 PM

Brassband,

Bob Dole never got as close to Clinton in '96 as Giuliani has to Clinton/Obama, or Thompson has to Bill Clinton, right?

In columns and analyses written by some liberals and "moderates", you're starting to see the theme that the Democrats are the prohibitive favorites. For instance, look at Charles Bakst from Tuesday...

But it seems odd they think they can win the general election by being such strong supporters of the war in Iraq.

Now, even at this early stage, is anyone going to be surprised to find out that Rudy Giuliani supports the President's foreign policy, and is the more hawkish (towards our enemies at least) than any of the Democrats in the field? Yet he's tied, at the moment, with both Democratic frontrunners.

I know it's early, and that the electoral college changes the real odds of winning, but these polls do mean that it's not a foregone conclusion that the Democrats are going to win the '08 Presidential election.

Posted by: Andrew at August 10, 2007 9:20 AM

Brassband,

Here’s an even better example of what I’m thinking of, from today’s Bruce Bartlett column in the LA Times…

The motive for my original article was a calculation that a Republican can't win the presidency next year; none of the party's candidates look strong enough to overcome the handicaps that President Bush has imposed on them. Therefore, I had no choice but to size up the Democrats from a conservative point of view. Which one is least bad…They are coming to terms with the growing likelihood that [Hillary Clinton] will be our next president and concluding that maybe it is something they can live with.

But the early numbers just don’t support the idea that the Republicans are already out of the Presidential race, as much as Bartlett would like them to be, as punishment for what he perceives as their sin of nominating George W. Bush. It would probably be different if the Dem frontrunner weren’t named Clinton, but she is, and that’s the reality the politicos need to deal with.

Posted by: Andrew at August 10, 2007 5:15 PM