Anchor Rising: Republican Presidential Update

October 8, 2007

Republican Presidential Update

Carroll Andrew Morse

With the accelerated Presidential Primary schedule, there is much debate about whether the traditional, smaller-state early contests will matter as much as they have in the past.

In reality, we won't know the answer to this question until it's all over, including the shouting.

That said, the Des Moines Register's latest poll of likely Iowa Caucus goers shows Mitt Romney continuing his commanding lead in Iowa, with Rudy Giuliani basically tied with Mick Huckabee for 3rd (survey conducted October 1-3)…

Mitt Romney 29%
Fred Thompson 18%
Mike Huckabee 12%
Rudy Giuliani 11%.

Meanwhile, the most recent CNN/WMUR-TV poll of likely New Hampshire Republican voters had Romney and Giuliani sharing the lead (survey conducted September 17-24)…

Mitt Romney 25%
Rudy Giuliani 24%
John McCain 18%
Fred Thompson 12%

Those are both very different line-ups from the national-level pecking order, where Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani are tied for the lead, and Mitt Romney is running 3rd, just ahead of John McCain. Here's Rasmussen's latest weekly tracking survey of Republican voters (released October 1)…

Fred Thompson 25%
Rudy Giuliani 23%
Mitt Romney 13%
John McCain 10%

Beyond the horserace analysis, the overriding question for Republicans should be: in fractured field like this, what can any of the contenders do to become the candidate that unites the Republican party?

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I don't know if I would consider the Republican field fractured at all. It's clear that the voters are undecided, but the lack of large donations indicates that most Republican stalwarts are sitting the race out until the nominee is clear. If anything, I would say the Republican primary voters are united, in that they intend to back whoever wins, but they don't want to jump to conclusions about who that will be just yet.

Now the Democratic field is definitely fractured. Hillary may have a commanding lead, but that doesn't stop people from pouring money into her competitors, indicating that there are quite a few who are unhappy with the prospect of a Hillary nomination.

Posted by: Mario at October 8, 2007 10:54 AM

Seeing as we all live a stone's throw from Massachusetts, can anyone point to three or four examples of things that Mitt Romney accomplished there that would suggest that he'd be a good President?

Since nothing comes immediately to mind, I have a hard time thinking that he can make a compelling case over the long haul . . . maybe I haven't been paying enough attention?

Posted by: brassband at October 8, 2007 11:45 AM

"Hillary may have a commanding lead, but that doesn't stop people from pouring money into her competitors, indicating that there are quite a few who are unhappy with the prospect of a Hillary nomination."

Presumably, they are the ones contributing to her eye-opening 43% unfavorable rating. Hillary is divisive even within her own party.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j422UZ1PVKXp0g
H6HCwaY4pg5n7g

Posted by: Monique at October 8, 2007 1:08 PM