January 9, 2008
Calling All Armchair QBs - New Hampshire
New Hampshire voters just did what they do best--go against the Conventional Wisdom (or the establishment, in the case of McCain). All sorts of theories are out there about how the media misread the Democratic race. One interesting theory is that perhaps McCain pulled independents away from Obama because--to the NH independent voter--it looked like McCain needed them more. Maybe. Another is that people lied to pollsters--the Bradley effect--about voting for Obama.
Exit polling showed that Clinton did much better among women of all ages than Obama. And while the youth vote that was supposed to come out for Obama did, there just aren't as many of them as we think. That's nothing new: pandering to the youth vote is sexy but doesn't yield substantive results. As Clinton showed, it's all about the older women (Except you Mom!) and traditional Democrats. Bottom line for the Dems is that the real contest is a generational one.
On the GOP side, McCain won as predicted, if not by as much. Romney came in 2nd (again), which both reflects a belief that he is everyone's second choice and that he may end up being the consensus GOP candidate. Regardless of perception, the fact is that Romney leads the delegate count with two seconds and a first in Nevada {thanks Jon} Wyoming (which has more delegates than NH, by the way--just not the publicity). Huckabee got no real Iowa bounce, but he wasn't paying much attention to NH to begin with. It's all about South Carolina for him. Then there is Giulianni, waiting for February...Meanwhile, the role that independent voters will play in party primaries will lessen significantly.
Ironically, despite the heavy play that domestic issues are getting in this election, maybe the NH results show that both parties voted for the candidate they believe to be the strongest on foreign policy.
Let's not completely discount the ability of New Hampshire's politically savvy 'independent' voters deciding to set them up to knock them down. Hillary is the candidate the Republicans would most like to go up against in the general election. It's entirely possible that the voters there didn't vote for who they liked the most.
Of course, that's just as crazy as a lot of the other theories out there.
Posted by: Greg at January 9, 2008 11:04 AMWasn't it Wyoming that Romney won?
Posted by: Jon at January 9, 2008 11:11 AM I wonder if Hillary even made a dramatic comeback at all.
Interesting analysis on Newsweek's site this morning about three races where the polling went horribly wrong: '82 California governor's race (Tom Bradley loses despite big lead in last poll). '89 Virginia governor's race (Doug Wilder scrapes by despite having huge lead in last poll), and '90 North Carolina Senate race (Harvey Gantt loses despite double-digit lead in late polls).
Put these alongside Jesse Jackson's presidential campaigns, where he always polled more strongly then he actually ran on primary day, and you can build a good case that polls in races involving black candidates are about as reliable as dial-up in the mountains. People try to be PC to pollsters, then vote otherwise when they go behind the curtain?
None of you are right. Bobby Oliveira was in NH, and Hillary's win was all due to his efforts. Just you wait and see...
Posted by: John at January 9, 2008 12:14 PMHe's taking credit for it already on RIF, John. Hey, he did a better job getting out his vote than The Don LOL.
Posted by: rhody at January 9, 2008 1:23 PMBO is exactly as responsible for Hildabeast's win in NH as I am for the Pat's undefeated season.
Cheering for the right team is now officially an 'essential' piece of winning, apparently.
Posted by: Greg at January 9, 2008 2:07 PMOn the way home from work tonight, I heard a guest analyst on a Boston radio station rave about how that "moment" was the real Hillary and that's how the people who know her know her and it was an important event because people will not vote for someone unless they like them and trust them and that's what this "moment" accomplished for Hillary.
Well that didn't take long. The race card being played already? Since Democrats tend to be inherently racist I agree with Rhody that racism plays a big role in how Democrats vote.
Well said Rhody! lol
Dems loves blacks as long as they're subservient house boys for the cause. Anyone minority who dare challenge the white power structure of the Dem party will be subject to back channel racist whisper campaigns. It's already started with the 'Obama he a muslim' whisper campaign.
The best part in all this? That'll be seeing all the femalibs in the local media and blogosphere Charlie Bakst Matilda Jerzyk Ian Donnis et al say absolutely nothing in protest as their white Dem brethren play the ugly race game against a black Dem candidate.
Great fun watching femalibs expose themselves as the spineless hypocrites they are.
Tim, "Matilda,", as you refer to him, was in New Hampshire campaigning for Obama, and has gotten quite critical of Hillary lately.
Bakst, I'll give you. He wouldn't want to endanger his access to the shrimp canapes or lobster bisque at the next Hillary fundraiser.