September 22, 2008
Playing the Poll Game
I see Matt and Ian have both posted about how the most recent Brown poll shows an "approval" rating of only 39% for Governor Carcieri. The actual question/answers are as follows:
How would you rate the job Don Carcieri is doing as governor? Excellent 13.0%; Good 26.3%; Only fair 24.9%; Poor 32.8%; Don’t know/No answer 3.0%I checked on the methodology of how Brown defines "approval" in their own polls, and they include only the "Excellent" and "Good" answers in this calculation. However, Matt takes this to mean that Governor Carcieri must have a 58% disapproval rating. Well, let's be fair, here. I'll concede that those answering "Only fair" don't imply that they "approve", but it also doesn't follow that they disapprove, does it? A fair reading would put the Governor's disapproval rating at around 33%.
Let's take Matt's formula and apply it to some other RI pols, shall we?
How would you rate the job Patrick Kennedy is doing as U.S. representative? Excellent 11.1%; Good 35.6%; Only fair 26.6%; Poor 20.2%; Don’t know/No answer 6.5%Does anyone really think that nearly half of Rhode Islanders have a strong disapproval of Liz Roberts? C'mon....
DISAPPROVAL = 47%How would you rate the job Elizabeth Roberts is doing as lieutenant governor? Excellent 2.5%; Good 21.5%; Only fair 29.4%; Poor 14.5%; Don’t know/No answer 32.1%
DISAPPROVAL = 44%How would you rate the job William Murphy is doing as House speaker? Excellent 2.0%; Good 14.9%; Only fair 23.6%; Poor 18.4%; Don’t know/No answer 41.1%
DISAPPROVAL = 42%How would you rate the job Joseph Montalbano is doing as Senate president? Excellent 1.6%; Good 11.6%; Only fair 22.2%; Poor 22.1%; Don’t know/No answer 42.5%
DISAPPROVAL = 44%How would you rate the job David Cicilline is doing as mayor of Providence? Excellent 9.1%; Good 36.9%; Only fair 24.9%; Poor 18.2%; Don’t know/No answer 10.9%
DISAPPROVAL = 42%
I doubt that many RI'ers know who she is.
Posted by: joe bernstein at September 22, 2008 6:13 PMTypical Rhode Islander:
"Elizabeth Roberts? Is she the Canadian governor running with McClain for Pres'dent?"
I don't place a lot of credence in these polls either way.
I usually combine the excellent/good and fair/poor like Matt does in figuring the positive/negative rating.
These numbers work better in comparison to previous numbers than as a snapshot. For example, Cicciline is only a 46 percent positive after having been up in the 50s in the last poll, so one can reasonably argue that recent controversies he's been involved in have put a dent in his popularity, as they did in The Don's.
More analysis of the poll here:
http://www.rifuture.org/showDiary.do?diaryId=4089
Posted by: Matt Jerzyk at September 23, 2008 10:51 AMHey Matt-
How's that organizing drive for the oppressed workers at KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell?
Yum, Yum
hypocrite scum
Liz Roberts, Liz Roberts? Hmm, can't seem to think about what she does and... oh wait a minute, isn't she the Hispanic butt kissing woman that disagrees with the Governor in public and then flies around in National Guard helicopters?
Oh, she is so cool! Maybe Revell can make her into a caricature in the helicopter like they did with Rat Fink and drag cars back in the 60's!!!
Now, I do know Cicilline. It seems that there must be two or three people in Providence that must have taken the poll a few times each. I was just down City Hall today. Oh so nice that the place is bi-lingual, isn't it?
The way Jerzyk entertains the polls is like asking a rape victim if the rapist was polite.
Posted by: Roland at September 24, 2008 12:17 AMPlease do not feed the two above trolls.
Posted by: rhody at September 24, 2008 12:27 AMYes!
We would certainly NOT want to get into a debate on who votes illegally in polls more than once....
Paging D-E-P-E-T-R-O
:-)
If ONLY there were so many right-wingers in RI to justify those fake numbers!
Posted by: Matt Jerzyk at September 24, 2008 5:51 PMJerzyk you claimed on your Fortunate Son Commie blog that you illegally commited voter fraud by voting for Clinton in 1992-when you were 15.
Are you a felon or just a liar?
Yum Yum
hypocrite scum