Campaigning in a Fluid Environment
Justin Katz
In addition to mentioning Anchor Rising's breaking of the news of Joe Trillo's gubernatorial candidacy, Cynthia Needham offers some details and an example of healthy longer-term perspective:
Trillo has $60,000 in his campaign coffers — that's more than most legislators, but thousands less than his potential Democrat opponents including General Treasurer Frank T. Caprio, Attorney General Patrick C. Lynch and Providence Mayor David N. Cicilline.
Can a Republican win in 2010? Trillo says the GOP will have less to worry about by the mid-term elections when, he predicts, the country's political mood will probably have shifted toward the center.
"Right now, it's an uphill climb," he said, referring to the popularity of Democrats in Rhode Island and beyond. "But two years from now, I think we will stand an excellent chance."
I would encourage other Republicans and conservative independents — whether candidates or voters — to keep that probability in mind. The year 2010 will arrive after two more years of Democrat General Assembly mismanagement and continued economic stagnation, if not continued decline, in Rhode Island.
That's been said in the runup to the last couple of elections, and can certainly apply to 2010. But as long as the RI GOP brawls over social issues and who's a RINO and who isn't, it'll never take advantage of the opportunities the Dem leadership is handing it.
Sixteen years is a long time for one party to hold the Governor's office . . . it's pretty likely that a Dem. will be elected in 2010.
Brassband, that's like flipping a coin and getting 5 heads in a row and then saying that getting tails on the next flip is pretty likely.
I think the Assembly is going to take a beating in the next Gov election, as they should. They have an approval rating around the same level as Congress', a percentage below legal drinking age.
"But as long as the RI GOP brawls over social issues"
Brawls? Since when have social issues ever been a priority or even acknowledged by the RIGOP? C'mon. I've been a member for about 7 years now, and there's been barely a mention. It's something that's largely been ignored by the former Chafeeite elements, probably to our detriment.
There are plenty of socially conservative Rhode Islanders. The Dems here don't seem to have the same problems with social issues. I know many pro-life Democrats. I'll even go out on a limb and state that there are more socially conservative elected Dems, than all of the Republicans put together.
Anyway, in regard to Trillo. He has no chance, and I think he knows it, too. He's been talked into this. Maybe someone is massaging his ego. This has everything to do with Chafee-Laffey '06 and nothing to do with 2010. He mentioned this exact same thing to some party people about 6 months ago, and then backed down when he was elected to the RNC post over Rob Manning. He was specifically asked about pursuing higher office, and he stated that wouldn't be the case. What's changed? On issues, Trillo and Laffey share most positions. However, Trillo likes to schmooze more. How is that going to help him develop a base of support? Does he think that Democrats are going to cross-over and support him, too? There's also a likelihood of an independent, third party run by the not so illustrious former junior senator, which would be interesting because both he and Trillo hail from Warwick.
Let's just say for the sake of argument, that after a tough primary battle, he miraculously wins. Then what? He faces a 6 week sprint against a well-financed Caprio or Lynch, and will get the you know what beat out of him. Why would he put himself up like that? He's not a dumb man by any stretch. I think he'd do well to stay in the legislature (I'd love for him to be minority leader) or to perhaps consider a congressional run at some point.
Sixteen years is a long time for one party to hold the Governor's office . . . it's pretty likely that a Dem. will be elected in 2010.
Posted by brassband at January 28, 2009 9:38 PM
Oh, if the Democrats nominate anyone but DINO Caprio, Laffey will be the next governor.
Now if that moronic, inept, lucky sperm blacksmith gets in the race as an independent all bets are off.
If you can judge a man by his enemies, Linc Chafee is a king.
That said, I can't see Trillo challenging Laffey in a primary (even with that nice early pile of money). What is Trillo looking for?
"What is Joe Trillo looking for?"
More like, what is Joe Trillo looking at? Like... twilight time, the winter of his years, curtains... Face it, he's in his mid 60's and he likes attention. He's peeked and he desparately needs that last hurrah. Unfortunately for poor old Joe, he's got some disengenuous co-conspirators who are egging him on and feeding his ego.
People who really like old Joe need to have a talk with him.
Also, on the subject of the playing field in 2010... the Governor isn't exactly helping the cause. Is old Joe ready to go to battle with Carcieri? Carcieri won't be running, but the Dems and the media will certainly have him in the race.
Hey Rhody,
What planet are you from again? What exactly are the issues that the Democrat General Assembly are handing us? So far as I can see, the Democrats in the General Assembly are more conservative than the most of the Republicans (Watson and Loughlin excluded).
Has anyone been listening to that union hack Jack Savage lately? He's a Republican. You guys know that right?
And what about Dennis Algieire? Does anyone know that he's got the backing of the AFL-CIO?
Rhody also mentions Chafee as being a 'king' because he has the right enemies. Who exactly are you referring to?
I guess in Rhody's opinion, a guy who gets McCain to come to Rhode Island to campaign for him, and then turns around and supports his opponent in the Presidential election is a good guy! Rhody, I'm glad you're not my friend!
At least Rhody has chosen the right name. He's as much as a moron as most Rhode Islanders!
Rasputin, it speaks well of Chafee that someone like you regards him as an enemy.
The personal shots, I'm letting go.
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That's been said in the runup to the last couple of elections, and can certainly apply to 2010. But as long as the RI GOP brawls over social issues and who's a RINO and who isn't, it'll never take advantage of the opportunities the Dem leadership is handing it.
Posted by: rhody at January 28, 2009 7:59 PMSixteen years is a long time for one party to hold the Governor's office . . . it's pretty likely that a Dem. will be elected in 2010.
Posted by: brassband at January 28, 2009 9:38 PMBrassband, that's like flipping a coin and getting 5 heads in a row and then saying that getting tails on the next flip is pretty likely.
I think the Assembly is going to take a beating in the next Gov election, as they should. They have an approval rating around the same level as Congress', a percentage below legal drinking age.
Posted by: Patrick at January 28, 2009 10:26 PM"But as long as the RI GOP brawls over social issues"
Brawls? Since when have social issues ever been a priority or even acknowledged by the RIGOP? C'mon. I've been a member for about 7 years now, and there's been barely a mention. It's something that's largely been ignored by the former Chafeeite elements, probably to our detriment.
There are plenty of socially conservative Rhode Islanders. The Dems here don't seem to have the same problems with social issues. I know many pro-life Democrats. I'll even go out on a limb and state that there are more socially conservative elected Dems, than all of the Republicans put together.
Anyway, in regard to Trillo. He has no chance, and I think he knows it, too. He's been talked into this. Maybe someone is massaging his ego. This has everything to do with Chafee-Laffey '06 and nothing to do with 2010. He mentioned this exact same thing to some party people about 6 months ago, and then backed down when he was elected to the RNC post over Rob Manning. He was specifically asked about pursuing higher office, and he stated that wouldn't be the case. What's changed? On issues, Trillo and Laffey share most positions. However, Trillo likes to schmooze more. How is that going to help him develop a base of support? Does he think that Democrats are going to cross-over and support him, too? There's also a likelihood of an independent, third party run by the not so illustrious former junior senator, which would be interesting because both he and Trillo hail from Warwick.
Let's just say for the sake of argument, that after a tough primary battle, he miraculously wins. Then what? He faces a 6 week sprint against a well-financed Caprio or Lynch, and will get the you know what beat out of him. Why would he put himself up like that? He's not a dumb man by any stretch. I think he'd do well to stay in the legislature (I'd love for him to be minority leader) or to perhaps consider a congressional run at some point.
Posted by: Will at January 29, 2009 2:09 AMSixteen years is a long time for one party to hold the Governor's office . . . it's pretty likely that a Dem. will be elected in 2010.
Posted by brassband at January 28, 2009 9:38 PM
Oh, if the Democrats nominate anyone but DINO Caprio, Laffey will be the next governor.
Posted by: Mike at January 29, 2009 8:53 AMNow if that moronic, inept, lucky sperm blacksmith gets in the race as an independent all bets are off.
If you can judge a man by his enemies, Linc Chafee is a king.
Posted by: rhody at January 29, 2009 3:14 PMThat said, I can't see Trillo challenging Laffey in a primary (even with that nice early pile of money). What is Trillo looking for?
"What is Joe Trillo looking for?"
More like, what is Joe Trillo looking at? Like... twilight time, the winter of his years, curtains... Face it, he's in his mid 60's and he likes attention. He's peeked and he desparately needs that last hurrah. Unfortunately for poor old Joe, he's got some disengenuous co-conspirators who are egging him on and feeding his ego.
People who really like old Joe need to have a talk with him.
Also, on the subject of the playing field in 2010... the Governor isn't exactly helping the cause. Is old Joe ready to go to battle with Carcieri? Carcieri won't be running, but the Dems and the media will certainly have him in the race.
Posted by: George at January 29, 2009 6:04 PMHey Rhody,
What planet are you from again? What exactly are the issues that the Democrat General Assembly are handing us? So far as I can see, the Democrats in the General Assembly are more conservative than the most of the Republicans (Watson and Loughlin excluded).
Has anyone been listening to that union hack Jack Savage lately? He's a Republican. You guys know that right?
And what about Dennis Algieire? Does anyone know that he's got the backing of the AFL-CIO?
Rhody also mentions Chafee as being a 'king' because he has the right enemies. Who exactly are you referring to?
I guess in Rhody's opinion, a guy who gets McCain to come to Rhode Island to campaign for him, and then turns around and supports his opponent in the Presidential election is a good guy! Rhody, I'm glad you're not my friend!
At least Rhody has chosen the right name. He's as much as a moron as most Rhode Islanders!
Posted by: Rasputin at January 29, 2009 10:37 PMRasputin, it speaks well of Chafee that someone like you regards him as an enemy.
Posted by: rhody at January 30, 2009 1:39 PMThe personal shots, I'm letting go.