In addition to the name, Linc Chafee, a former mayor of Warwick, has his own political base. “For me, it’s a mix of environmentalists, Warwick voters, anti-war people, progressive Republicans,” he says. “I’m not an enemy to labor. I’d like to have labor on my side as much as possible.”

I'm just put off a little bit by this statement. "Anti-War people"? Since when does a national issue such as that draw support for a candidate for governor? What would your views on the wars matter when voting for someone who will be running your state? It seems highly illogical and very suspect to me, he should realize he isn't running for senator anymore. Can you really trust a man who views things in this way? Does anyone else sort of get where im coming from? Its foolish to say such things, and your suppose to be taken seriously?

"Anti-War people"? Since when does a national issue such as that draw support for a candidate for governor?

Two part answer: 1. When someone as dumb as Lincoln Chafee is running. 2. When an electorate is so dumb that it is very likely to elect Linc Chafee.

Chafee can use that sound-bite in a State-oriented campaign because, that is what stupid people think "smart" sounds like. Most people who vote in the 2010 RI statewide election will not even know what the state issues are!

"Most people who vote in the 2010 RI statewide election will not even know what the state issues are!"

Agreed. And like in the last gubernatorial election, another 70,000 of them will connect that one line at the top that just reads "Democrat" and hand in their ballot.

Mark Arsenault is moving to Georgia soon. His departure from the ProJo was one of several setbacks to their depth and experience in covering local politics.

"Would anyone who continues to insist that Chafee is a "moderate" and not a "liberal", where "moderate" is used as a stand-in for "fiscally conservative" and "socially liberal", care to explain where the support for "fiscal conservatism" is going to come from, given that base?"

Would anyone care to explain why Linc Chafee thinks he will get ANY fiscal conservative's vote?

Sure, Chafee is a "moderate" in the sense that he's such a milquetoast wimp that he can't assume the nasty tone of genuine liberal.

You also have to watch out for the trend in political labeling where people claim that it's "fiscally conservative" to raise big taxes to cover big spending.

I may be able to provide a good national example of this phenomenon in a day or two...

"where people claim that it's "fiscally conservative" to raise big taxes to cover big spending."

Yeah, wow, is that ever not true.

Yeah, wow, is that ever not true.

Monique

Even though I'm glad that you have now resolved your personality issues I'm not sure I'm too happy with the one you have chosen that was responsible for the sentence above. One day at a time as they say.

Monique-Aren't you glad "Dr.Phil"has approved your choice of personality?I guess there has to be a forum after Oprah.
Linc Chafee is a joke,but the bigger joke is that this crosseyed nitwit milksop could actually get elected.
Arlene is a good choice,but the Moderate Party sounds like its going nowhere.

Arlene would be a terrible choice. She has neither the executive experience nor the political toughness to deal with RI's problems. Her speech at the Gaspee Day Tea Party was embarrassingly bad.

Much as I like Arlene personally, I agree that she would not be a good choice. She also has neither money nor name recognition (surprisingly) and it's a bit late in the game for anyone with those hurdles to jump in the race.

If we use a conventional political calendar, anyone with mid-level name recognition or below has be in by January to have a shot at a respectable showing, right? Caprio/Lynch will increasingly dominate the political coverage the closer we get to the September primary date. So for an I or an M to build the name recognition needed to challenge the D winner and the R in the short General Election campaign, they'll need to break through in the early months of 2010.

Laffey and/or Chafee may have enough recognition to be exempt from this rule -- but I can't help but think back to the 2008 Presidential campaign, where people kept saying that the rules were all different now, and a high name-recognition candidate like Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson (if you count his acting fame) could jump in late and still do well.

As the saying goes, fool me once...

joe bernstein

Remember that it was "this crosseyed nitwit milksop" that did not roll over for Vice President Cheney or for President George W. Bush about going to war in Iraq or giving the wealthy huge tax cuts. Maybe we as a nation would not be in the shape we're in now if a few more Senators had done the same.

Name recognition is one thing, but anyone without the ability to self fund a campaign or raise big bucks quickly is already behind the eight ball at this point in the game.

That's a good point -- for someone who can't generate big money in a hurry, if it's not already too late, it will be soon.

I seem to remember that Don Carcieri had his first TV ads on the air by January of 2002. A serious candidate has to be out there early with the feel-good ads, so that after the primaries are held, people are choosing between the D winner and "'dis guy whose name I've been hearing for a while, who seems like he may be alright; let me learn a little more", instead of between the D winner and "Who? Never heard of him. Better play it safe and vote for the respectable D who 'da TV news has been talking about all year".

In a related question, does anyone think that Rory Smith's campaign team is ready to tackle this dynamic?

Nope, I don't see it. In fact, it seems like Rory has gone into hiding lately, not even committing to participating in the Rhode Island Voter Coalition Gubernatorial Forum on Jan 8th, whereas Chafee, Caprio, and Lynch all have committed. Strange strategy for a guy with the least name recognition in the pack to pass up an opportunity like that, as no doubt it will get a lot of press.

Sorry,Phil-this guy was actually correct in his vote against the Iraq War(surprised?)but that doesn't alter my impression of him in general.He sounded like a nitwit on 10 News Conference.
Getting one thing right does not indicate success as a Governor.

Linc needs to settle the question of whether he has the fire in the belly for this camoaign. He needs to get out there a little more aggressively - Caprio is showing some willingness to court the progressive vote, and I think the race is his to lose if he continues to do so. Dan Yorke seems to have turned against Frank - a good feud with Pope Daniel is a good way to Frank to get progressive votes without even having to change a policy position.
As long as Linc's in the race, chancs are excellent Laffey will jump in. It's not just politics between those two guys - it's personal.

Joe Bernstein

I'll admit I am surprised.

Rhody

You mentioned Steve Laffey and Dan Yorke in your comments. Did you happen to catch the performance of Laffey on WPRO 'S Yorke show recently. He apparently was filling in for the vacationing Yorke. I listened for about 45 minutes as I staightened out a tangle of groundline. He sounded shrill and unstable, wildly talking about everything under the sun in a breathless rush. His mind with his tongue following seemed to be moving at breakneck speed towards derailment. Comments about events occuring during his short stint as mayor of Cranston were sprinkled in with his ever increasing mad rush of words. You may be right about the personal animus that exists between he and Chaffee and that may get him into the Governor's race. He may be just crazy enough.

I didn't get such a negative impression of Laffey's performance sitting in for Dan Yorke last week. In fact, I was favorably impressed.

Laffey may not be perfect (neither, as we have just discovered, is Tiger) but he knows the issues, has strong conservative and free-market instincts, and has displayed the management and political skills, ability to use the bully pulpit, and guts to work effectively with or against the General Assembly, as necessary.

I did not hear Laffey on Yorke but his perfomance as a radio talk show host is irrelevant to his ability to lead the state as Governor. The guy has more ideas in his little finger than all the other candidates combined, and the guts necessary to effect change. Without Laffey at the helm and a robust change in the GA after November 2010, we can say syonara to what's left of RI.

ideas in his little finger
and the guts necessary to effect change.

Sorry, but I think that stability, a calm temperament, the ability to find consensus, and perseverance are some of the things I look for in elected officials. If it was just about ideas and guts why not just vote for Chris Young. He has plenty of both.

"stability, a calm temperament, the ability to find consensus, and perseverance are some of the things I look for in elected officials."

Phil, I'm looking for a bold leader, not a nanny.

Re: ability to find consensus. I'm sure most of the current contenders for Governor would fill that role nicely. Which is exactly the problem.

Phil, I'm looking for a bold leader, not a nanny.

I find your dismissal of an elected official with an ability to bring together people who represent different points of view and positions the problem. That ability is one tool for getting things done in a pluralistic democracy. Maybe you object to the idea of a pluralistic democracy where there is no one center of power. In that case you would favor a "bold leader" as the Italians, Spaniards, Germans, and Russians did in recent history. The framers of the U.S. Constitution who the tea party crowd is so enamored of certainly knew that the concentration of power with one leader was not a wise idea. As to your "nanny" reference I do not have a clue. Perhaps you are better acquainted with "nannies" than I.

Phil-listen to yourself.Really.
What is Obama?He is a man who is attempting to concentrate power and push through his agenda come hell or high water by means of the cult of personality.We don't have to look to Russia or Germany for that nowadays.
Spain?Are you still going on about Franco?He was not the simple tyrant many wanted to picture him as.
Franco let 40,000 Jews into Spain to avoid Hitler's death camps-the "great"FDR turned back a mere shipful.
If you ever do some serious reading on he Spanish Civil War,you will understand the complexity of that struggle-not only were numerous different disposed Spanish forces in conflict,but both fascist and communist foreign powers conducted proxy campaigns there.

"ability to find consensus"

Really Phil? In RI? Where everyone goes along to get along. Where there has been one major (progressive) voice in governmnet for the past 70 years? Most of the current contenders for Governor will have NO problem with that, my dear. Because they are part and parcel of the problem; they represent that same voice. Not tough to find consensus amongst your own.

Nobody who will fix this state will find consensus with the dimwits in the GA until enough of them are booted out to make a difference. To effect change, the next Governor is going to need to use the bully pulpit.