Sunday Healthcare Whip Report

Firedoglake is reporting that Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, who had been in listed in their Stupak bloc (don't know that we can really call them pro-lifers as a group anymore) will vote "yes" regardless of any changes in abortion language. Bart Stupak's statement that he has 6 members in his bloc suggests least one or more of the others in the FDL "Stupak" category might go "yes", regardless of changes or non-changes that happen today. Reportedly, Stupak is negotiating with the White House on banning public funding for abortion via executive order, meaning the EO strategy could win his vote and the votes of his bloc.

FDL is also mentioning that Rick Boucher of Virginia, who they had as a "no" but other sources had as undecided, is a potential undecided. And no one is sure what Loretta Sanchez of California is going to do. All that taken into consideration, I'l interpret the FDL reports as saying 206 Yes, 207 No, 9 generic unknowns, 9 potential members of the Stupak bloc (but at least one who is probably already a "yes").

Fox News hasn't moved their tally from 216-215; I'm not sure where they had Kaptur before. The New York Times is enjoying Sunday Brunch.

UPDATE (12:32 PM)

Something is up with the Stupak discussions with the White House. A press conference that was supposed to have been held at noon has been cancelled. Nothing definitive has been reported yet.

Also, there appears to be one New England vote still undecided. Firedoglake has Michael Michaud of Maine as an undecided potential Yes-No flip, though the New York Times has him as a "yes". The Bangor Daily News reported yesterday...

With a historic vote on reforming the nation's health care system looming on the horizon, Rep. Michael Michaud isn't tipping his hand. In a prepared statement on Friday, Michaud said he is still reviewing the contents of the reconciliation package unveiled Thursday by fellow Democrats in the U.S. House...As of Friday afternoon, Michaud was the only member of Maine’s congressional delegation still on the fence about the legislation

Depending on what is happening with the Stupak bloc, one question may become how well having to campaign as "the man who decided to bring socialism to America" will go over in Maine.

UPDATE II (12:49 PM)

Firedoglake is reporting that MSNBC is reporting that the Stupak bloc has accepted the Executive Order, and will vote for the bill.

By FDL's count, one more commitment is still necessary to get the democrats to 216 (assuming they now will get all 9 of the Reps listed under the Stupak bloc). Could we see any confusion about Loretta Sanchez clear up very soon? I suspect she could weather the title of "the bringer of socialism to America" title better than Mike Michaud could.

UPDATE III (1:08 PM)

Here's the banner from MSNBC...

BREAKING NEWS: Sources tell NBC News that Rep. Stupak to vote yes on health care bill

No link provided, no word from Rep. Stupak himself yet.

UPDATE IV (1:17 PM)

Robert Costa of National Review Online is confirming Stupak as a "yes".

UPDATE V (1:30 PM)

Fox News is reporting that Brian Baird of Washington has announced he will vote for the bill, and they've moved their tally to 217-214.

Baird was on the Firedoglake list of unknowns, which means if all 9 of their Stupak bloc members come over, their tally is 216 votes in favor of passage. Baird, by the way is retiring from Congress.

UPDATE VI (1:42 PM)

Hold on a sec: a conservative group-blog (NRO) is linking to a twitter feed from a producer at an all-news network (CNN) which says...

Urgent -- Rep. Stupak to CNN producer Lesa Jansen: "I'm still a no...There is no deal yet. Its a work in progress."

However, the feeling among the commentariat is that something will be worked out.

UPDATE VI-B (1:54 PM)

Roll Call says...

Despite reports to the contrary, House Democratic leaders insisted Sunday that they do not yet have the support of anti-abortion-rights Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.), who has been leading a bloc of key holdouts on the bill.

MSNBC reported earlier that Stupak — and others opposing the final health bill over the abortion language — would vote in favor. But according to Brendan Daly, spokesman for Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), “MSNBC is wrong.”

“We hope so, but it hasn’t happened yet,” he added.

UPDATE VII (2:01 PM)

The New York Times is reporting that John Tanner of Tennessee, who was undecided, will remain a "no". Firedoglake is reporting that Lincoln Davis of Tennessee will also vote "no", and that Bill Foster of Illinois will vote "yes".

That puts the total at 208-209, 5 generic undecideds (4 of whom voted yes on the previous bill), 9 members of the Stupak bloc possibly waiting on the outcome of the executive order deliberations.