Justin said;
“Businesses and consumers both are facing uncertainty not only because of the depth of the recession but because we've got a "transformative" regime running the country. Massive public debt. Looming changes to healthcare requirements. Environmental regulations appearing inevitable, whether Congressionally enacted or administratively implemented. And the list goes on.
In such an environment, planning for as-yet prospective demand is even riskier than usual.”
That observation may be true in RI but there are other states and regional areas that are on the verge of coming out of this recession and experiencing expanding prosperity.
During the month of June nationally, the jobless rate fell in 39 states and Washington, DC. Take a look at the top 10 states with the lowest unemployment numbers and you will see life is almost back to normal in those states.
HI addressed the looming changes to healthcare requirements over 35 years ago with healthcare reform bringing HI the closest in the nation providing universal healthcare to the entire state population. As a result, HI has the lowest healthcare costs in the nation and one of the healthiest and longest living populations in the nation. My healthcare costs dropped $100 a month when I moved from RI to HI for the same coverage with same insurance companies. Is that not something you would want?
HI is one of the top 10 (ranked 6 lowest) with 6.3% state-wide unemployment and a 5.8% in Honolulu. Down from a state-wide high of 7.7%. What hurt HI the most this recession was the bankruptcy of 2 airlines (Aloha and ATA Airlines) causing a loss of 600,000 flight seats and over 40,000 HI personnel layoffs and without those seats visitors had no way to get to HI.
If there is any indication the recession is nearing an end then look at HI sitting in the middle of the Pacific where state-wide hotel rooms are back up to 72% occupied up from 60% but still down from normal 80%. Hotel occupancy gains have been adding each month and visitor spending is now well over $100 million extra each month compared to last year. Private investors are building new hotels and resorts like Walt Disney Co. completing the new 800 room resort “Aulani” in Honolulu fall of 2011. There are now direct flights to/from China and direct nonstop flights from the United Kingdom are being added. New flight routes have been added from Canada, Japan, Philippines and South Korea. US domestic airlines added 500,000 flight seats to HI this year.
There are currently 70 years of committed construction and redevelopment projects just on the island of Oahu mostly private investor funded. The city of Honolulu has a $5.8 billion 20 year high speed light rail project funded with .05% surcharge added to sales tax (started in 2006) and Federal government continues to rehabilitate military bases and Pearl Harbor Naval shipyard.
HI State, city and county governments have balanced their fiscal budgets for the next two years without increasing taxes (my property tax dropped to city minimum $100 a year because of my senior citizen status). Statewide energy initiative to reduce dependence on imported oil 70% by year 2030 is gaining with new wind farms, photovoltaic farms, bio-fuels, use of ocean water (HI electric bills are lowering with alternate energy) and various electric car manufactures targeting HI market including one South Korean car manufacturer starting construction a plant in HI so the electric cars will be local. High technology, bio-medical, alternate energy and estate agriculture (coffee beans, vanilla beans, chocolate and olive oil) plus the TV/film industry (HI now has 3 weekly TV shows filmed in the islands) are fast growing markets.
Money is being spent and people are on vacations and spending lots of money and companies are expanding and there are new startup companies. Just not in RI.
That's kind of a silly argument, and not up to your usual standards. If there's any effect this "transformative regime," is having it's not likely to even measure up to the other factors listed. The fact is that the money we gave the banks to kick start lending is more or less being hoarded. That means credit is scarce and debts are expensive. The man sitting in the oval office might matter to economics professors and arm-chair pundits, but it's not likely to rank high on the list of concerns for your average small business.
Ron,
Three points:
1. It's not just "the man in the Oval Office." Congress is complicit, too. In other words, pretty much the entire policy-creating federal government is included in the "transformative regime."
2. The methods of government "stimulus" are certainly among the actions contributing to the effect that I'm suggesting, as are economic policies generally.
3. Plainly put, the federal government has been in the process of making employees and business operation more expensive. Companies with clear demand (note my mention of "prospective demand") will expand and hire, although access to credit comes into play, but I stand by my suggestion that hiring beyond obvious needs is "riskier than usual."
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Posted by: michael at July 21, 2010 2:00 PMJustin said;
“Businesses and consumers both are facing uncertainty not only because of the depth of the recession but because we've got a "transformative" regime running the country. Massive public debt. Looming changes to healthcare requirements. Environmental regulations appearing inevitable, whether Congressionally enacted or administratively implemented. And the list goes on.
In such an environment, planning for as-yet prospective demand is even riskier than usual.”
That observation may be true in RI but there are other states and regional areas that are on the verge of coming out of this recession and experiencing expanding prosperity.
During the month of June nationally, the jobless rate fell in 39 states and Washington, DC. Take a look at the top 10 states with the lowest unemployment numbers and you will see life is almost back to normal in those states.
HI addressed the looming changes to healthcare requirements over 35 years ago with healthcare reform bringing HI the closest in the nation providing universal healthcare to the entire state population. As a result, HI has the lowest healthcare costs in the nation and one of the healthiest and longest living populations in the nation. My healthcare costs dropped $100 a month when I moved from RI to HI for the same coverage with same insurance companies. Is that not something you would want?
HI is one of the top 10 (ranked 6 lowest) with 6.3% state-wide unemployment and a 5.8% in Honolulu. Down from a state-wide high of 7.7%. What hurt HI the most this recession was the bankruptcy of 2 airlines (Aloha and ATA Airlines) causing a loss of 600,000 flight seats and over 40,000 HI personnel layoffs and without those seats visitors had no way to get to HI.
If there is any indication the recession is nearing an end then look at HI sitting in the middle of the Pacific where state-wide hotel rooms are back up to 72% occupied up from 60% but still down from normal 80%. Hotel occupancy gains have been adding each month and visitor spending is now well over $100 million extra each month compared to last year. Private investors are building new hotels and resorts like Walt Disney Co. completing the new 800 room resort “Aulani” in Honolulu fall of 2011. There are now direct flights to/from China and direct nonstop flights from the United Kingdom are being added. New flight routes have been added from Canada, Japan, Philippines and South Korea. US domestic airlines added 500,000 flight seats to HI this year.
There are currently 70 years of committed construction and redevelopment projects just on the island of Oahu mostly private investor funded. The city of Honolulu has a $5.8 billion 20 year high speed light rail project funded with .05% surcharge added to sales tax (started in 2006) and Federal government continues to rehabilitate military bases and Pearl Harbor Naval shipyard.
HI State, city and county governments have balanced their fiscal budgets for the next two years without increasing taxes (my property tax dropped to city minimum $100 a year because of my senior citizen status). Statewide energy initiative to reduce dependence on imported oil 70% by year 2030 is gaining with new wind farms, photovoltaic farms, bio-fuels, use of ocean water (HI electric bills are lowering with alternate energy) and various electric car manufactures targeting HI market including one South Korean car manufacturer starting construction a plant in HI so the electric cars will be local. High technology, bio-medical, alternate energy and estate agriculture (coffee beans, vanilla beans, chocolate and olive oil) plus the TV/film industry (HI now has 3 weekly TV shows filmed in the islands) are fast growing markets.
Money is being spent and people are on vacations and spending lots of money and companies are expanding and there are new startup companies. Just not in RI.
Posted by: Ken at July 21, 2010 6:57 PMThat's kind of a silly argument, and not up to your usual standards. If there's any effect this "transformative regime," is having it's not likely to even measure up to the other factors listed. The fact is that the money we gave the banks to kick start lending is more or less being hoarded. That means credit is scarce and debts are expensive. The man sitting in the oval office might matter to economics professors and arm-chair pundits, but it's not likely to rank high on the list of concerns for your average small business.
Posted by: Ron at July 22, 2010 5:01 AMRon,
Three points:
1. It's not just "the man in the Oval Office." Congress is complicit, too. In other words, pretty much the entire policy-creating federal government is included in the "transformative regime."
2. The methods of government "stimulus" are certainly among the actions contributing to the effect that I'm suggesting, as are economic policies generally.
3. Plainly put, the federal government has been in the process of making employees and business operation more expensive. Companies with clear demand (note my mention of "prospective demand") will expand and hire, although access to credit comes into play, but I stand by my suggestion that hiring beyond obvious needs is "riskier than usual."
Posted by: Justin Katz at July 22, 2010 6:40 AM