Rhode Island Will Recover, After Everyone Else Does
Carroll Andrew Morse
A projection posted at the New York Times Economix blog divides the 50 states and the District of Columbia into 5 groups, based on when they are expected to be home to the same number of jobs that they were in December 2007.
The first group has already recovered. The group after that is projected to recover by 2013. The last group isn't expected to recover until "past 2017".
There are only 3 states in the last group: Nevada, Michigan, and...I'll let you guess the third.
(Also, would anyone like to interpret the significance of the fact that one of the three places that has already made its recovery is D.C.?)
The original link is as follows
//blog.american.com/2011/11/2-terrifying-and-depressing-unemployment-charts/jobschartnov/
from The American Enterprise Institute. I won't be waiting out the 60 months, but then, I haven't earned a living in RI in more than 30 years, despite living here since '73.
As the Federal govt. goes (grows) so does the DC area. The bloated Feds keep getting fatter shuffling papers and enacting regulations,etc. This is at the expense of the private sector which funds the fat cats and it's underlings and is the victim of the regulations. RI is a special basket case. The denial and arrogance of it's public sector unions and the vested interest of it's leaders have led the small state into the ocean. Dire as it was RI elected an incompetent Governor. The incompetent one's focus was medical marijuana,tuition and sanctuary for illegals, gay marriage,etc. It is very understandable that RI will be the last to recover. The Ostrich does not even know it's head is beneath the ground.
DC ever had any economic problems at all? You wouldn't know it from the relatively middle-class circles I traveled in.
DC always needed systems integrators, programmers, and engineers for the DOD.
DC always needed cab drivers, food vendors, and tour guides for the tourism industry that *might* have taken a dip 2001-2002, but immediately recovered.
DC always needed construction workers to build new apartment complexes in Arlington, Bethesda, and Silver Spring.
and DC certainly always needed policy analysts, writers, and researchers like myself to feed the machine that is Government.
Those weren't nearly all Government jobs... aside from contracting, there's all the "support" industries that spring up around a highly-educated, well-paid populace. The unemployment rate across the Anacostia River was never much higher than that of the areas the politicos live.
The Federal government - where a liberal arts bachelors degree can lead to a $120k Human Resources job doing 5 hours of work each week that a trained bonobo could do. Or a $155k administrative supervisor job telling people which chairs and computers to order for other offices. Where everybody with a masters from any school, regardless of merit, automatically achieves GS-13 simply for living past age 40 and with it a guaranteed income of $115k.
It's no wonder the cheapest, smallest house you can find in Alexandria is 400k.
That 5 hours of week statement is such a crock Dan... have you ever actually worked in a Federal Government building?
Having worked both in the U.S. Senate and the Executive Office of the President, let me tell you something: I've never seen a private business in my life with people who are more dedicated to their jobs, work longer hours, and for ZERO overtime pay for that matter.
My *average* schedule in EOP was ~10-12 hrs a day, and I was one of the lucky ones. My boss rarely left work before 8pm, and was always in before I was. He was appointed by President Obama.
In the Senate I saw legislative assistants work well into the night, sleep in their offices, and continue with a spare suit in the morning for important pieces of legislation.
This myth that the government somehow works fewer hours than corporate America is not born out by the facts I've seen in my personal life.
But I'm sure there's a person over at the Department of Agriculture (I like to pick on them) who got caught snoozing in his truck on film one day (sorry, mixing stories here), and thus all government workers are overpaid, underworking buffoons.
So tired of hearing that from people who haven't seen it. And if you have directly seen it, where were you working, and was it more than one person for a period of more than a couple of days?
If so, I suppose our stories might cancel... but I was in DC for over 5 years, and the hard-workers *easily* outnumbered the lazy ones.
"That 5 hours of week statement is such a crock Dan... have you ever actually worked in a Federal Government building?"
Yes, every day.
"Having worked both in the U.S. Senate and the Executive Office of the President, let me tell you something: I've never seen a private business in my life with people who are more dedicated to their jobs, work longer hours, and for ZERO overtime pay for that matter."
Ahahahaha. You think working for the Senate or the White House is typical of the Federal government? Those are the extreme anomalies. I have also worked in the EOP on detail and with Congressional staffers - they are predominantly temporary political stepping stone positions that operate on hectic schedules - it's comparing apples and oranges with the permanent-hire administrative agency positions that make up 90-95% of the non-military Federal government. They even have their own pay scales and benefits systems they're so unique. The understanding there is that if you work your ass off for a few years, you'll land a sweetheart appointment down the road. Needless to say that motivation is nonexistent outside those positions, and there is much less subtantive work to be done.
Go spend some time in HUD, or Ed., or DHS, or EPA, or DOE. I specifically mentioned HR and administrative personnel for a reason, and every agency has them in droves. I could list dozens of completely redundant people by name who take 2-hour lunches every day and make well over $100k with virtually no qualifications or responsibilities, but I won't for obvious reasons. It's also literally impossible to fire anyone short of them committing a violent crime, another big difference from Congressional staffers who can be fired on a whim. If you are interested in counting all the GS-13's and GS-14's with bland titles for yourself, you can enter in any Federal agency at:
php.app.com/fed_employees10/search.php
Since I've never been in any of those places, I do have to take your word for it Dan... you've walked the walk.
In my case, it wasn't a series of stepping-stone positions as it was positions which burned me out completely. But you're right in that those positions generally end up putting you in one of three places:
1) A higher-paying, perhaps even more hectic gov't job.
2) A private lobbying firm.
3) A trip to Rhode Island and then Oregon to escape it all ;)
That said, I hope you won't paint *all* government employees with such a broad brush in the future. I have friends and colleagues out there working their butts off, and it hurts to see them chucked in with the redundant HR folks.
That *also* said, I'm more than happy to limit the number of GS-13's, 14's, and SES'ers -- there are pay grades in gov't appropriate for the level of skillset you're describing, but obviously we both agree that those aren't appropriate.
They should all have to do a rotation carrying papers and dragging up floor charts from the Senate basement in hard-soled shoes walking on marble all day. Then perhaps they'd work a full day at say GS-9 or 10 at their cushy desk jobs and be glad for it.
I would never paint all government employees with the same brush. After all, I am one, and I am a hard worker. Some of my coworkers are also very good - mostly of the younger generation, and by that I mean 25-50ish. Many of the "longer-term" employees grew up in a much less, uh, "work-ethical" era and are by all signs incapable of learning anything else at this point. Let's just say the place will be much more productive once they finally retire and make room for some fresh blood. I'm literally listening to one of these (heavily union-involved) individuals snore next to me right now. This happens several times a day. He makes $115k/year, although I couldn't tell you what actual work he does here. Most of his time is consumed chatting it up with other old-timers, shopping on ebay, or making personal phone calls. The management is fully aware of this but simply doesn't care because there is no incentive for them to care. Of course, they couldn't fire him even if they wanted to without going through years of procedure, grievances, and an eventual lawsuit.
Besides the incentives problems inherent in the work, my biggest complaint, as I mentioned earlier, is with high pay for people in menial positions who basically have just been here a long time. GS-13 is outrageous for most HR employees in my opinion considering with step increases they will be making $115k plus benefits, bonuses, and various other subsidies. There should be one or two HR managers who make that tops. I actually have no problem with real managers making GS-15 - I think that is appropriate to retain a talented supervisor. I will qualify this by saying that there are way too many of them. They should be supervising at least 10-20 employees each, but the norm is more like 5 or 6.
I had a good experience working in the EOP. There was certainly a different work culture there. Of course, there you have to deal with all sorts of political appointees, some of whom are very intelligent and good people, some of whom are emphatically not. I don't care if you're friends with Senator Murray, the draft you sent me still sucks...
And to counter the inevitable objections of Phil - I'm in on a very boring phone conference ATM. I won't claim that that's unique to government.
Posted by jparis
"They should all have to do a rotation carrying papers and dragging up floor charts from the Senate basement in hard-soled shoes walking on marble all day."
"hard soled shoes walking on marble" If you think that is a tough day, come visit my world.
Posted by Dan:
"Many of the "longer-term" employees grew up in a much less, uh, "work-ethical" era and are by all signs incapable of learning anything else at this point. "
I haven't actually seen this at the federal level, I have certainly seen it at the local level. A local Board of Health official once announced to me "I've got three years to go to retirement, I'm not interested in learning anything new". That decision cost me an additional $15,000 for a septic system. I have no difficulty in extrapolating such an attitude to a Federal employee.
@WF: No idea what you do for a living... I'm just saying leather on marble makes for very bruised feet. Also, you're wearing a formal suit while basically performing mild manual labor.
Is the job of a police officer, construction worker, etc. more physically demanding? Of course. Compared to desk work? It's an effing marathon.
Posted by jparis
"@WF: No idea what you do for a living... I'm just saying leather on marble makes for very bruised feet. Also, you're wearing a formal suit while basically performing mild manual labor."
Hey J, "man up". What do I do for a living? Well, I did spend 30 years in formal suits and Guccis, so I know about thin leather soles. Then I found that I couldn't maintain 11 knots in my rowing shell, so I quit. Now, I just "do things". For the summer, I picked up my 40X60 barn and replaced the sills. Tuesday, I finished the roof. Rainy days I am putting a Chevy engine in my Porsche. Evenings, I sip Amaretto and work my way through Gibbons, Decline and Fall.
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The original link is as follows
//blog.american.com/2011/11/2-terrifying-and-depressing-unemployment-charts/jobschartnov/
from The American Enterprise Institute. I won't be waiting out the 60 months, but then, I haven't earned a living in RI in more than 30 years, despite living here since '73.
Posted by: chuckR at November 15, 2011 2:10 PMAs the Federal govt. goes (grows) so does the DC area. The bloated Feds keep getting fatter shuffling papers and enacting regulations,etc. This is at the expense of the private sector which funds the fat cats and it's underlings and is the victim of the regulations. RI is a special basket case. The denial and arrogance of it's public sector unions and the vested interest of it's leaders have led the small state into the ocean. Dire as it was RI elected an incompetent Governor. The incompetent one's focus was medical marijuana,tuition and sanctuary for illegals, gay marriage,etc. It is very understandable that RI will be the last to recover. The Ostrich does not even know it's head is beneath the ground.
Posted by: ANTHONY at November 15, 2011 3:43 PMDC ever had any economic problems at all? You wouldn't know it from the relatively middle-class circles I traveled in.
DC always needed systems integrators, programmers, and engineers for the DOD.
DC always needed cab drivers, food vendors, and tour guides for the tourism industry that *might* have taken a dip 2001-2002, but immediately recovered.
DC always needed construction workers to build new apartment complexes in Arlington, Bethesda, and Silver Spring.
and DC certainly always needed policy analysts, writers, and researchers like myself to feed the machine that is Government.
Those weren't nearly all Government jobs... aside from contracting, there's all the "support" industries that spring up around a highly-educated, well-paid populace. The unemployment rate across the Anacostia River was never much higher than that of the areas the politicos live.
Posted by: jparis at November 15, 2011 4:57 PMThe Federal government - where a liberal arts bachelors degree can lead to a $120k Human Resources job doing 5 hours of work each week that a trained bonobo could do. Or a $155k administrative supervisor job telling people which chairs and computers to order for other offices. Where everybody with a masters from any school, regardless of merit, automatically achieves GS-13 simply for living past age 40 and with it a guaranteed income of $115k.
It's no wonder the cheapest, smallest house you can find in Alexandria is 400k.
Posted by: Dan at November 16, 2011 7:56 AMThat 5 hours of week statement is such a crock Dan... have you ever actually worked in a Federal Government building?
Having worked both in the U.S. Senate and the Executive Office of the President, let me tell you something: I've never seen a private business in my life with people who are more dedicated to their jobs, work longer hours, and for ZERO overtime pay for that matter.
My *average* schedule in EOP was ~10-12 hrs a day, and I was one of the lucky ones. My boss rarely left work before 8pm, and was always in before I was. He was appointed by President Obama.
In the Senate I saw legislative assistants work well into the night, sleep in their offices, and continue with a spare suit in the morning for important pieces of legislation.
This myth that the government somehow works fewer hours than corporate America is not born out by the facts I've seen in my personal life.
But I'm sure there's a person over at the Department of Agriculture (I like to pick on them) who got caught snoozing in his truck on film one day (sorry, mixing stories here), and thus all government workers are overpaid, underworking buffoons.
So tired of hearing that from people who haven't seen it. And if you have directly seen it, where were you working, and was it more than one person for a period of more than a couple of days?
If so, I suppose our stories might cancel... but I was in DC for over 5 years, and the hard-workers *easily* outnumbered the lazy ones.
Posted by: jparis at November 16, 2011 1:20 PM"That 5 hours of week statement is such a crock Dan... have you ever actually worked in a Federal Government building?"
Yes, every day.
"Having worked both in the U.S. Senate and the Executive Office of the President, let me tell you something: I've never seen a private business in my life with people who are more dedicated to their jobs, work longer hours, and for ZERO overtime pay for that matter."
Ahahahaha. You think working for the Senate or the White House is typical of the Federal government? Those are the extreme anomalies. I have also worked in the EOP on detail and with Congressional staffers - they are predominantly temporary political stepping stone positions that operate on hectic schedules - it's comparing apples and oranges with the permanent-hire administrative agency positions that make up 90-95% of the non-military Federal government. They even have their own pay scales and benefits systems they're so unique. The understanding there is that if you work your ass off for a few years, you'll land a sweetheart appointment down the road. Needless to say that motivation is nonexistent outside those positions, and there is much less subtantive work to be done.
Go spend some time in HUD, or Ed., or DHS, or EPA, or DOE. I specifically mentioned HR and administrative personnel for a reason, and every agency has them in droves. I could list dozens of completely redundant people by name who take 2-hour lunches every day and make well over $100k with virtually no qualifications or responsibilities, but I won't for obvious reasons. It's also literally impossible to fire anyone short of them committing a violent crime, another big difference from Congressional staffers who can be fired on a whim. If you are interested in counting all the GS-13's and GS-14's with bland titles for yourself, you can enter in any Federal agency at:
Posted by: Dan at November 16, 2011 2:11 PMphp.app.com/fed_employees10/search.php
Since I've never been in any of those places, I do have to take your word for it Dan... you've walked the walk.
In my case, it wasn't a series of stepping-stone positions as it was positions which burned me out completely. But you're right in that those positions generally end up putting you in one of three places:
1) A higher-paying, perhaps even more hectic gov't job.
2) A private lobbying firm.
3) A trip to Rhode Island and then Oregon to escape it all ;)
That said, I hope you won't paint *all* government employees with such a broad brush in the future. I have friends and colleagues out there working their butts off, and it hurts to see them chucked in with the redundant HR folks.
That *also* said, I'm more than happy to limit the number of GS-13's, 14's, and SES'ers -- there are pay grades in gov't appropriate for the level of skillset you're describing, but obviously we both agree that those aren't appropriate.
They should all have to do a rotation carrying papers and dragging up floor charts from the Senate basement in hard-soled shoes walking on marble all day. Then perhaps they'd work a full day at say GS-9 or 10 at their cushy desk jobs and be glad for it.
Posted by: jparis at November 16, 2011 3:00 PMI would never paint all government employees with the same brush. After all, I am one, and I am a hard worker. Some of my coworkers are also very good - mostly of the younger generation, and by that I mean 25-50ish. Many of the "longer-term" employees grew up in a much less, uh, "work-ethical" era and are by all signs incapable of learning anything else at this point. Let's just say the place will be much more productive once they finally retire and make room for some fresh blood. I'm literally listening to one of these (heavily union-involved) individuals snore next to me right now. This happens several times a day. He makes $115k/year, although I couldn't tell you what actual work he does here. Most of his time is consumed chatting it up with other old-timers, shopping on ebay, or making personal phone calls. The management is fully aware of this but simply doesn't care because there is no incentive for them to care. Of course, they couldn't fire him even if they wanted to without going through years of procedure, grievances, and an eventual lawsuit.
Besides the incentives problems inherent in the work, my biggest complaint, as I mentioned earlier, is with high pay for people in menial positions who basically have just been here a long time. GS-13 is outrageous for most HR employees in my opinion considering with step increases they will be making $115k plus benefits, bonuses, and various other subsidies. There should be one or two HR managers who make that tops. I actually have no problem with real managers making GS-15 - I think that is appropriate to retain a talented supervisor. I will qualify this by saying that there are way too many of them. They should be supervising at least 10-20 employees each, but the norm is more like 5 or 6.
I had a good experience working in the EOP. There was certainly a different work culture there. Of course, there you have to deal with all sorts of political appointees, some of whom are very intelligent and good people, some of whom are emphatically not. I don't care if you're friends with Senator Murray, the draft you sent me still sucks...
Posted by: Dan at November 16, 2011 3:34 PMAnd to counter the inevitable objections of Phil - I'm in on a very boring phone conference ATM. I won't claim that that's unique to government.
Posted by: Dan at November 16, 2011 3:51 PMPosted by jparis
"They should all have to do a rotation carrying papers and dragging up floor charts from the Senate basement in hard-soled shoes walking on marble all day."
"hard soled shoes walking on marble" If you think that is a tough day, come visit my world.
Posted by Dan:
"Many of the "longer-term" employees grew up in a much less, uh, "work-ethical" era and are by all signs incapable of learning anything else at this point. "
I haven't actually seen this at the federal level, I have certainly seen it at the local level. A local Board of Health official once announced to me "I've got three years to go to retirement, I'm not interested in learning anything new". That decision cost me an additional $15,000 for a septic system. I have no difficulty in extrapolating such an attitude to a Federal employee.
Posted by: Warrington Faust at November 16, 2011 6:11 PM@WF: No idea what you do for a living... I'm just saying leather on marble makes for very bruised feet. Also, you're wearing a formal suit while basically performing mild manual labor.
Is the job of a police officer, construction worker, etc. more physically demanding? Of course. Compared to desk work? It's an effing marathon.
Posted by: jparis at November 16, 2011 6:24 PMPosted by jparis
"@WF: No idea what you do for a living... I'm just saying leather on marble makes for very bruised feet. Also, you're wearing a formal suit while basically performing mild manual labor."
Hey J, "man up". What do I do for a living? Well, I did spend 30 years in formal suits and Guccis, so I know about thin leather soles. Then I found that I couldn't maintain 11 knots in my rowing shell, so I quit. Now, I just "do things". For the summer, I picked up my 40X60 barn and replaced the sills. Tuesday, I finished the roof. Rainy days I am putting a Chevy engine in my Porsche. Evenings, I sip Amaretto and work my way through Gibbons, Decline and Fall.
For everything else you need to know, go here:
Posted by: Warrington Faust at November 16, 2011 9:56 PMmembers.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewUserPage&userid=twfaust