November 5, 2012
The Final Round of Polls Say?
...The final Gallup poll has tightened...the RCP average is now slightly in Obama's favor...CNN has the race about tied too, but in a sample that was 41% Democratic, 30% Republican...
Blogger Bob Krumm has some interesting speculation about what Presidential election projections from five national major pollsters/poll analysts could mean (scroll down to just below the map at the link, to see the five scenarios he evaluated).
Tomorrow we'll find out who was right.
I don't think we'll know even by Wednesday morning. When it's this close, there will be enough irregularities somewhere that it'll get dragged out. Even when it's within 3 pts, I get nervous about it dragging out. This is closer than that.
Kinda ironic that many polls have them tied at "47%" eh?
Posted by: Patrick at November 5, 2012 4:52 PMWe might not know the winner until early Wednesday morning, but I think we'll have a pretty good idea by then of whose likely voter models stunk.
I say Romney 272-266. He takes 5 battlegrounds, FL,VA,NH,CO and WI. The president wins the other 3, OH, IA and NV. Romney also gets 1 vote from Maine CD#2. This scenario rests on one of the most prosaic foundations, the favorite son, Romney is an honorary New Hampshireman and Ryan is able to deliver the cheeseheads in Wisconsin. Surprise result - and I admit it's a stretch - Romney does better in MA than expected and pulls Brown ahead of Warren. WSJ.com is free for 24 hours beginning 5:00 pm Tuesday. Could be a useful source if it's an allnighter.
Posted by: observer at November 5, 2012 5:30 PMRomney, 300+ . . . see Michael Barone's analysis, he hits it on the head.
Posted by: brassband at November 5, 2012 7:23 PM