Re: Marriage Amendments

As Marc notes, traditional marriage won big, this election, despite a political turnout that would have seemed likely to point in the other direction. For federalist conservatives, these results are pretty close to the ideal of how things should work: The people of each state decide their policies, and when the judiciary over reaches, the people correct it.
Me, I see this heading quickly to the Supreme Court. That’s the critical path left to same-sex marriage advocates. The state-by-state strategy is blocked by the will of civilian majorities, but a Constitutional Amendment at the federal level trumps all, and the Supreme Court has transformed itself into a vessel for short-hand amendments.

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rhody
rhody
12 years ago

Eight years ago, 61 percent of Californians voted against gay marriage.
Yesterday, 52 percent did.
Time is on the side of gay marriage advocates. It’ll happen in 2012 (or in two years if the anti-gay folks overplay their hand and try to have the 18,000 legal marriages performed this year erased).
With 63 percent of voters under 30 opposing a ban on gay marriage, it’s just a matter of time.

Justin Katz
12 years ago

Maybe yes, maybe no, but young people mature, and if you allow for the possibility that consideration and good intentions can lead one to conclude that marriage is and ought to remain a relationship between a man and a woman, then you have to allow for the possibility that even today’s indoctrinated young can have their minds’ changed.

donroach
donroach
12 years ago

Actually, in a strange twist of fate for the redefinition crowd, Obama’s presidency probably led to the passage of this bill as most African Americans in California voted in favor of the ban. Latinos and whites were split.
Throw in your random-Democrat and this proposition would have likely failed b/c African Americans would have stayed home.
But this definitely was a huge, huge win for marriage. Huge! I was almost in tears about it as the last several years I’ve become almost resigned to the notion that marriage we mean something different to my children and grandchildren.
But as state after state continues to support marriage, I’m encouraged that the Supreme Court may also do so as well.
It will be intriguing to see over the next four years who leaves the court and who Obama appoints to the Court. That may very well turn the tide either way.

joe bernstein
joe bernstein
12 years ago

A large percentage of African-Americans who turned out for Obama and a lot of Latinos(many of whom are leaving Catholicism for Pentecostal/Evangelical churches)are socially conservative when the issue of homosexual rights comes up.

Pragmatist
Pragmatist
12 years ago

Justin, if you think that the will of “civilian majorities” will block marriage equality for long in at least a good number of states, you are still in your pre-election delusional stage.
Prop 8 barely passed in California. Public opinion polls on the general issue of gay rights have a clear trajectory, and that trajectory is not in your favor.
I suppose you can hope that religious indoctrination or theocratic imposition of your belief through empty vessels like Saah Palin might stem the tide for a bit. You can stand athwart history yelling stop all you like, but history marches on with or without you.

rhody
rhody
12 years ago

“Maybe yes, maybe no, but young people mature, and if you allow for the possibility that consideration and good intentions can lead one to conclude that marriage is and ought to remain a relationship between a man and a woman, then you have to allow for the possibility that even today’s indoctrinated young can have their minds’ changed.”
Somehow, I doubt the 59 percent of those 65 and over who supported the amendment were pro-gay marriage when they were younger suddenly “matured.” They probably fear it because it wasn’t even on the radar when they were under 30.
Hey, old folks didn’t abandon Elvis or doo-wop when they matured, either.
Supporters may also have an answer next time for the canard about gay marriage being taight in schools. Here’s to the winners for a tactic that caught opponents of the amendment by surprise.
Blacks will present a problem, for gays are opposed by both ends of the spectrum. The cause brings together pious preachers and heinous gangsta rappers.

joe bernstein
joe bernstein
12 years ago

So Rhody-Black people who don’t support same sex marriage are heinous gangsta rappers?Nice try.
I think most of them are actually churchgoers with strong religious attitudes on the subject.Hardly the “gangsta” element.
Do you ever stop and listen to yourself?
A lot of these pro illegal alien activists who are non-Latino and also support same sex marriage are in store for a comeuppance if they think a socially conservative community like the Guatemalans will go for that idea.One hand doesn’t always wash the other.
I normally stay out of this subject because since neither myself nor anyone in my immediate family is homosexual,who gives a rat’s ass?
The unreal expectations of progressives does interest me however.

rhody
rhody
12 years ago

Joe, you confuse and astound. I’m talking about two different sectors of the black community. But then again, homophobia makes strange bedfellows.
BTW, the Latino community was almost evenly split on the question, which I found somewhat surprising. I thought they’d be stronger in favor of the amendment.
And despite the LDS’ and Knights’ action, white folks were the strongest supporters of same-sex marriage. I guess I’m just one of those immoral crackers.

joe bernstein
joe bernstein
12 years ago

Re-reading your post,I see that I may have misread what you said.I guess it got by me that you were talking about opposite poles of the Black community.
A lot of single issue initiatives make strange bedfellows.

Justin Katz
12 years ago

Rhody: There were two components to my response:
1. That there is a rational case to be made for traditional marriage about which people can be persuaded.
2. The young will mature and become more open to lessons from life and principles outside of their left-wing indoctrination.
I made no claims beyond that. Be Pragmatist’s faith-based predictions of the future what they may, my view of marriage is a matter of principle rooted in reason. Whether it prevails is moot to the moral obligation to make the argument. By contrast, declarations of inevitability don’t constitute an argument; they indicate zealotry and ought to raise concerns about the beliefs, principles, and intentions of the speaker.
That, in fact, is one of the lessons that kids can learn as they move beyond their incubators: that markers of poor thought and anti-intellectual tendencies are not solely observed among theists.

rhody
rhody
12 years ago

If I had never “matured” and moved beyond my incubators, I’d have stayed conservative.
Maturity, like political correctness, is in the eye of the beholder.

Justin Katz
12 years ago

Again: my point had two components. I know you like one better, but there were, in fact, two.

Marty
Marty
12 years ago

I was a young know-it-all liberal once. Then I grew up. Having kids changed EVERYTHING. Suddenly my own parents didn’t seem so stupid…
You can stand athwart history yelling stop all you like, but history marches on with or without you.
Yeah, kinda makes you wonder what they have planned next, after SSM becomes normal.
The slippery slope slides on…

rhody
rhody
12 years ago

If having kids automatically made us more conservative, President-elect Romney would be bringing the hammer down on Comedy Central trying to run “South Park” off the air (and having a kid in the house, I’d be “supposed to” support him).
Thank God the Taliban didn’t make it through the GOP primary season.

joe bernstein
joe bernstein
12 years ago

“Taliban”-LOL-Rhody you got a lot of nerve thinking I overstate things.You don’t hear me pissing and moaning because McCain lost.Neither did he.
Selecting Palin was an egregiously boneheaded move and it cost him.Maybe he still wouldn’t have won with Ridge or Romney but it wouldn’t have been a six point spread.

Chairm
Chairm
12 years ago

GLB and Nonreligious voters helped pass California’s Protect Marriage amendment? Exit polls can be unreliable for many reasons, but bloggers and pundits have been making much hay over the reportedly heavy support for the Yes on 8 side (the pro-marriage side) delivered by the African American segment of the electorate in that state. The largest exit poll for Election 2008 was undertaken for the big newsmedia services on television and in print. The CNN website has made the details available on-line: See here. The final vote tally on Proposition 8 was Yes 52% to No 48%. The margin of victory on the marriage amendment is 2% (i.e. 50% to reject – 48% against = 2% margin). In other words, to defeat the proposition, the No side needed one vote more than 50% of the total but fell short by 2%. According to the exit poll, 5% of voters in California were GLB voters and 95% were non-GLB (or “straight”) voters. This indicates that of all the votes cast on the marriage amendment, 44% were No votes cast by non-GLB people. But what about the GLB votes? The GLB sample is very small, however, the poll results suggest that of all the votes cast, 1% were Yes votes from GLB people and 4% were No votes cast by GLB people. The GLB voters may have split 1 Yes for every 4 No. The upshot is that it appears that GLB voters supplied about one-half of the margin of victory for the Yes side. * * * Also, according to the exit poll, 16% of Proposition 8 voters were nonreligious and 84% were religious. Of all the votes cast on the amendment, half of the Yes votes were from religious voters and 2% (the margin of victory) was supplied by nonreligious voters.… Read more »

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