Another Learning Lesson from Brown – This One for Democrats –
may be developing out of the Mass senatorial race. [Marc’s “lesson” pertained to Republicans.] If Coakley defies certain polls and pulls out a win this Tuesday, the margin will almost certainly not be the thirty point gap she started with two months ago. At that point, a proportionality exercise will, inexorably, flash into the minds of every incumbent Democrat around the country and their campaign consultants:
This is a Massachusetts – worse, Ted Kennedy’s – senatorial seat. Therefore, she should have won by thirty points. She only won by X. I won my last campaign by Y, a lot less than thirty points. What does that mean for my margin this November??