Reporting on Experts
Theodore Gatchel notes a perpetual problem facing a public that wishes to be informed:
There are so many experts on virtually every subject imaginable that anyone who relies on them for information is faced with the problem of determining which experts to trust. Unfortunately, almost everyone falls in that category. Investors rely on experts for market information, patients rely on doctors, governments depend on intelligence agencies, and everyone listens to the weather report.
As experts proliferate, so do the differences of their opinions. President Eisenhower once said about the reports he received concerning the French in Indochina, “There are almost as many judgments as there are authors of messages.” The problem then becomes one of determining which experts to believe. Eisenhower’s complaint is every bit as applicable today as it was when he made it.
Gatchel suggests a report card system for experts to enlighten readers as to how particular experts’ “predictions have panned out in the past.” The problem, it seems to me, is that any such attempt does little but create another topic on which experts can proliferate.
Consider a generic weekly columnist for a major national newspaper: the number of claims and implied predictions in his work would quickly become so plentiful, with so much of their accuracy subject to legitimate debate, that it would become easy work to distort his overall success by selecting particular predictions and interpreting real-world outcomes in a particular way. The result would be the translation of opinion into ostensibly objective data — like a PolitiFact score sheet for the honesty of public figures.