Santorum Wins Alabama and Mississippi, Romney Third, but Delegates Mostly Proportionally Split
According to CNN, it looks like we’re headed for Santorum-Gingrich-Romney finishing 1-2-3 in both Alabama and Misssissippi, where a total of 90 delegates are at stake. (American Samoa and Hawaii also have caucuses that close later tonight, where 29 more delegates will be awarded).
Because of the proportional (Misssissippi) and almost-proportional (Alabama) delegate allocation rules (available here, at the RNC website), there will likely be a slight edge for Rick Santorum in delegates, but not a huge dent in the approximately 200 delegate lead that Romney holds.
For those looking to either board or derail the inevitablity train, the questions are 1) whether there are any places on the remaining primary calendar for Rick Santorum to score some runaway victories; 2) if not, then does momentum or its absence matter to Mitt Romney, as long as he can assemble a combination of first-place and near-first place finishes that preserve his current delegate lead; and 3) how will tonight’s result affect Newt Gingrich’s longevity in the race, which directly affects the previous two questions.
If we go to a brokered convention, we cannot defeat Obama. Are we really to believe, for a moment, that Senator Sanctimonious, who couldn’t get on the ballot in VA and DC, can build a potent organization in six weeks post-Tampa? Ridiculous.