Sarkozy

By Marc Comtois | May 8, 2007 |
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The election of center-right Nicolas Sarkozy as president of France prompts Ralph Peters to observe, “I never thought I’d see it in my lifetime.” Election of a real reformer, that is. More:

Sarkozy is the first top-level French politician who openly accepts that the United States possesses virtues from which France might take a lesson. While Sarko’s attraction to things American can be overstated – he sees our system’s deficiencies, too, and won’t always agree with our foreign policy – he’ll be a leader who examines issues on their merits, not on the basis of shopworn Left Bank slogans.
What’s striking about this victory is Sarkozy’s bluntness. Instead of mumbo jumbo about la gloire, he speaks frankly about the mess in which France finds itself.

Peter’s also provides a few quotes from Sarkozy’s book, “Testimony,” to provide a window on the man’s policies:

* “The best social model is one that creates jobs for everyone, and this is obviously not ours since our unemployment level is twice as high as that of our main partners.”
* “I admire the social mobility of American society. You can start with nothing and become a spectacular success. You can fail and get a second chance. Merit is rewarded.”
* “France is no longer the country that comes up with new ideas.”
And Sarkozy offers some hard truths to those Americans who mindlessly praise the imaginary social justice and “better” quality of life in a France they know only from privileged vacations that tend to avoid the Muslim slums and collapsed industrial areas:
* “The French have never spoken so much about justice while allowing so much injustice to prevail . . . The reality of our system is that it protects those who have something, and it is very tough on those who don’t.”
* “France has been discouraging initiative and punishing success for the past 25 years. And the main consequence of preventing the most dynamic members of society from getting rich is to make everyone else poor.”
* “It is hard to exaggerate the damage done to France by the 35-hour workweek. How can anyone think that you’re going to create wealth and jobs by working less?”
* “Thirteen percent of retired women live below the poverty line, and a further 25 percent are barely above it . . . The unemployment rate for unskilled workers is 15 percent . . . It is 22 percent for those under 25 and nearly 40 percent for low-skilled youth who live in [immigrant ghettos].”

Froma Harrop also weighs in, and cogently observes:

A conservative, Sarkozy has summoned the French to work harder and longer, but one has to understand the context. The French can work harder and longer without working particularly hard or long, by our standards, anyway.

Ha!

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Changing Demography of the US Electorate

By Marc Comtois | May 8, 2007 |
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Michael Barone in the Wall Street Journal:

It has become a commonplace to say that population has been flowing from the Snow Belt to the Sun Belt, from an industrially ailing East and Midwest to an economically vibrant West and South. But the actual picture of recent growth, as measured by the 2000 Census and the census estimates for 2006, is more complicated…. What I found is that you can separate [population centers] into four different categories, with different degrees and different sources of population growth or decline. And I found some interesting surprises.

By far, the biggest population losers are the “Coastal Megalopolises”

Americans are now moving out of, not into, coastal California and South Florida, and in very large numbers they’re moving out of our largest metro areas. They’re fleeing hip Boston and San Francisco, and after eight decades of moving to Washington they’re moving out. The domestic outflow from these metro areas is 3.9 million people, 650,000 a year. High housing costs, high taxes, a distaste in some cases for the burgeoning immigrant populations–these are driving many Americans elsewhere.
The result is that these Coastal Megalopolises are increasingly a two-tiered society, with large affluent populations happily contemplating (at least until recently) their rapidly rising housing values, and a large, mostly immigrant working class working at low wages and struggling to move up the economic ladder. The economic divide in New York and Los Angeles is starting to look like the economic divide in Mexico City and São Paulo.

I would have thought that Providence would fall into the “Coastal Megalopolis” category. Not so:

The fourth category is what I call the Static Cities. These are 18 metropolitan areas with immigrant inflow between zero and 4%, with domestic inflow up to 3% and domestic outflow no higher than 1%. They seem to be holding their own economically, but are not surging ahead and some are in danger of falling back. Philadelphia makes the list, and so do Baltimore, Hartford and Providence in the East.
Surprisingly, some Western cities that boomed in the 1990s are in this category too: Seattle (the tech bust again), Denver, Portland. In the Midwest, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Columbus and Indianapolis are doing better than their Rust Belt neighbors and make the list. In the South, Norfolk, Memphis, Louisville, Oklahoma City and Birmingham are lagging enough behind the Interior Boomtowns to do so. Overall the Static Cities had a domestic inflow of just 18,000 people (.048%) and an immigrant inflow of 2%. Politically, they’re a mixed bag, a bit more Democratic than the nation as a whole: 52% for Kerry, 47% for Bush.

Not losing, but not gaining. All in all, Barone concludes:

Twenty years ago political analysts grasped the implications of the vast movement from Rust Belt to Sun Belt, a tilting of the table on balance toward Republicans; but with California leaning heavily to Democrats, that paradigm seems obsolete. What’s now in store is a shifting of political weight from a small Rust Belt which leans Democratic and from the much larger Coastal Megalopolises, where both secular top earners and immigrant low earners vote heavily Democratic, toward the Interior Megalopolises, where most voters are private-sector religious Republicans but where significant immigrant populations lean to the Democrats. House seats and electoral votes will shift from New York, New Jersey and Illinois to Texas, Florida, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada; within California, House seats will shift from the Democratic coast to the Republican Inland Empire and Central Valley.

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Fort Dix Terror Plot

By Marc Comtois | May 8, 2007 |
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A quick point about the Albanian terrorists who were arrested for plotting to wreak havoc at Fort Dix. They were initially discovered because of the vigilance of a local video store owner:

On or about January 30, 2006, a representative of a retail store informed officials of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (“FBI”) that an individual had brought a video to their store to be duplicated into a digital video disk (“DVD”). That DVD depicted conduct–recorded as having occurred on January 3, 2006–that the store representative described as disturbing. FBI agents reviewed the DVD in question. The DVD depicted 10 young men who appeared to be in their early twenties shooting assault weapons at a firing range in a militia-like style while calling for jihad and shouting in Arabic “Allah Akbar” (“God is Great”). The FBI and Joint Terrorism Task Force (“JTTF”) immediately commenced an investigation into the activities of the men depicted in the DVD.

We need to remember that–whether or not we want to or not–we may one day find ourselves thrust onto the front line of the war on terror. Be ready.

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Farewell, Rocky Point

By Marc Comtois | May 8, 2007 |
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As the last remnants of the Rocky Point Amusement Park are demolished and removed, one wonders if it would have survived longer had it maintained a look more like this:

Now, there will be a discussion over how much to develop and how much to devote to open space. Time marches on.

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A Whitecastle on the Hill

By Justin Katz | May 7, 2007 |
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Given some recent upgrades in my technology, I thought I’d make a practice of taking pictures as I wander about the state and uploading them, with commentary as appropriate — all at the speed of blog! So herewith, Sheldon Whitehouse’s understated summer cottage, which I put in (my own) political context back before the election:

whitecastle2.jpg

No doubt this is where the senator will commune with all of his important constituents.

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Combatting Those We Can’t Understand

By Justin Katz | May 6, 2007 |
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With the news of Russia’s slow slide back toward totalitarianism and Rocco DiPippo’s observations about life in Iraq prior to the troop surge, I find myself baffled by those who seek not just power, but oppressive power. Writes Rocco:

Before the troop surge began, my friend Nabil’s brother-in-law, a resident of Jordan, was shot in the head while he was visiting Baghdad for a week to help with Nabil’s wedding plans. He was killed by a terrorist simply for being at the wrong place at the wrong time.
A month prior to that event, Nabil and his parents fled their long-time home when they received a note, wrapped around a 9mm bullet, commanding them to leave their neighborhood in 24 hours or be killed. (Based on what had happened to some of those in Nabil’s neighborhood who had ignored similar threats, he knew that he and his family had half that time to gather up a few possessions and leave, if they wanted to live.)

Oh, we can empathize with the various factors that we imagine contribute to a willingness to terrorize and oppress. If the Virginia Tech killer had been a bit more charismatic — we might be tempted to think — he could have been a Hitler or Saddam. But if he had possessed such qualities, the triggers of his atrocity wouldn’t have existed and, if he lusted for power (rather than just acceptance), he would have been drawn to those means to power that our society has made to be more efficient and less personally perilous, such as politics, business, and even entertainment.
We can also understand that poverty and economic hopelessness can spur one toward desperate measures, and we can imagine ourselves, in such a state, being wooed by organized revolutionaries. But our society has generated organizations for assistance and political advancement. Moreover, we emphasize the power of information and communication over that of militarization.
We can even understand that, in nations that lack an established democratic rule of law, one has no guarantee that relaxing one’s grip on power will not send it slipping into the hands of even more (or at least conflicting) tyrannical forces. But one would expect people in such predicaments to see how much more stable the general power structure is under a free, constitutional regime. (Pakistan’s Musharraf comes to mind.) No doubt, being the faction that introduces democracy to a previously totalitarian society is a dangerous, courageous endeavor, but when the United States — and all of Western society (tentatively) — takes an interest, shouldn’t that represent an opportunity? To be sure, certain factions will find that they are disadvantaged when it comes to the United States’ affections, but the groups of which I’m thinking — those that oppose the West and the reformers whom Westerners woo — don’t tend even to consider overtures.
With interest, experience, and time, we can indeed construct a theoretical model of the drivers and boundaries of anything from atomic particles to psychotics, but models are far removed from intuitive understanding. It is one thing to conclude that, in order to deal with insurgents, one must take certain steps. It is another to assess “what would work on me if I were an insurgent.” That such a distinction exists at all appears to be a matter of some doubt along certain lines in Western Society.
The missing component, put another way, is the realization that oppressive, terroristic mindsets in other cultures sprout from different branches of human nature’s development than the West. This is not to say that Western civilization is immune to similar follies, but that other cultures’ versions exist under rules of law (writ large) that are parallel, not subordinate, to our own. Terrorists will not “come to their senses,” because their senses are different, and Westerners’ refined aversion violence and preference for talk and political maneuvering is not a reasonable predictor of our enemies’ behavior.
Of course, some Westerners would object even to my calling hostile groups “enemies.” One such, no doubt, would be Dr. Brian Alverson of Barrington, whose fortuitously timed letter to the Providence Journal expresses precisely the mentality that I’ve been describing:

What the Republican Party doesn’t want Americans to realize is there is, in fact, no true war on terror. Terror is not a burly beast aggressor out there. Terrorism has been going on for millennia.

The implication, here, is that people commit acts of terrorism, and if we focus on people rather than actions, we can come to understand them, as Alverson continues:

What our Republican leaders have done is create a world-wide distaste for America, especially among extremist groups. More people want to hurt innocent Americans than ever before, and this is due mostly to our aggressive foreign policy.

One can understand (the train of thought goes on) why these poor people would lash back at America and Americans, and with that understanding, we can construct a solution:

A vote for the majority of Republican candidates is a vote for a continuation of foreign policy that puts our children in harm’s way, and increases the likelihood of foreign terrorists on American soil.

The solution, in other words, is to scale back our “aggressive” foreign policy — leaving those whom American interference would turn into terrorists to themselves and, when it’s necessary to interact with them, doing so as we do here in the West, with communication and politics. The first question that arises is what we should do when they don’t keep to themselves — whether their expansionism amounts to direct attacks (as on 9/11) or to encroachment on our interests overseas. The next, trickier question is whether we have some responsibility to intercede in their affairs when notes begin appearing, wrapped around bullets, in family mailboxes.
As long as America protects either innocents or just its own interests, it will raise the ire of the oppressors of the world, and if it does not offer such defenses, those same would-be tyrants will read its inaction as opportunity. There’s a strange gray area of ignorance lingering between our cultural guilt about imperialism, colonialism, and worse practices and our willingness to believe that other cultures have surely reached our degree of refinement. That we have built barriers and controls around human nature does not mean that it does not run more wildly among others.
The grounds for hope materialize with the realization that we can understand others through our shared humanity — and all of the good and evil that give humanity its character. We’ve a long history to examine of falling before the devil’s whispers, and he whispers to us yet. To reformulate my statement above, we can observe how our enemies heed him, and we can model their likely behavior. The difficulty comes in understanding why they are deceived by certain of his lies, and in believing that he may deceive us through our own compassion and empathy.

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I’m Guessing It’s Not Going to Be a Quiet End to the Legislative Session This Year

By Carroll Andrew Morse | May 4, 2007 |
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Jim Baron of the Pawtucket Times, on Governor Donald Carcieri’s response to the RI Senate’s Government Oversight Committee hearings into his adminstration’s temporary-staff policies…

An uncharacteristically tough-talking Gov. Donald Carcieri lambasted the Senate Government Oversight Committee Thursday, accusing its members of “abusing…manhandling…berating and harassing” administration staffers during hearings and making demands for information that are bringing the operations of the state purchasing division to a halt.
Moreover, Carcieri threatened to sic the Bureau of Audits and even the State Police on legislators who may have exerted “inappropriate influence” over the awarding of past contracts and to make public, by posting on the Internet, a log of any calls legislators make or have made to the administration requesting that a certain company win a state contract or a constituent get a state job….
Carcieri said the purchasing division of the DOA is “currently at a virtual standstill” because department officials have spent approximately 500 hours identifying, locating, retrieving, photocopying, collating and delivering “over 10,000 pieces of paper” to the committee. “It is my understanding that the committee hasn’t even bothered to open many of the boxes of paper we have provided. Every hour expended to respond to the committee’s requests is an hour that an employee is not performing their usual duties.”
There is also a concern that we will not be able to close the state’s fiscal books by the end of June,” he said. “I cannot allow state government to grind to a halt in order to accommodate these many voluminous document requests”…
Carcieri suggested two remedies. He said if the committee wishes, he would instruct DOA “to give Senate and Senate staff unfettered access to all of the purchasing documents in the state’s possession” that are not being used as part of an active procurement. “You and your staff will be allowed to inspect the documents personally, determine what is of interest to your committee and make any necessary photocopies.
“If your committee is unwilling to make that effort,” Carcieri told Lenihan, “I will hire an outside copying firm to photocopy every document related to state purchasing from 2002 to 2006 in order to provide them to the committee as quickly as possible.” That, he estimated would cost taxpayers $400,000 to $600,000….
Katherine Gregg of the Projo, on the same subject…
While denying that he was seeking to divert attention from the Senate’s inquiry into his administration’s use of a private company, Smart Staffing Service, to supply hundreds of state workers, Carcieri said in an open letter to J. Michael Lenihan, the chairman of the Senate Government Oversight Committee: “It appears that committee members are less interested in seeking facts than they are in scoring points in the media. I can no longer allow this harassment of hard-working state employees to continue.”
He accused the lawmakers of “abusing,” “manhandling” and “verbally berating” state workers at their public hearings. He also accused the committee of creating “chaos within state government” and jeopardizing the year-end close of books with “its voluminous inquiries”….
But Carcieri said: “I cannot allow state government to grind to a halt in order to accommodate these many voluminous document requests. I also cannot allow these hearings to be used as a vehicle for abusing hard-working state employees.… That is not acceptable.
“I understand that committee members may have political problems with me as governor. That’s fine. But that cannot be used as an excuse to manhandle department employees,” he said.
And Steve Peoples of the Projo, on $80 millon in expected revenue that Rhode Island won’t be receiving this year…
The state probably won’t receive $80 million of anticipated revenue in the coming fiscal year from American International Group — the insurance giant that agreed last year to pay various states and investors more than $1.6 billion in restitution and penalties for filing false financial statements.
Rhode Island is due to receive the largest share of the settlement — nearly $100 million, including interest. State officials, thinking they were moving conservatively, projected revenues of $80 million in May from the settlement.
Yesterday they learned they would probably receive nothing in the next fiscal year.
“It is my opinion that the AIG settlement will enter long and protracted [litigation] in the next four to six months. We don’t expect the revenue for 2008. We’re just at a standstill at this point,” said A. Michael Marques, director of the state Department of Business Regulation.

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School Vouchers: An International Success Story

By Marc Comtois | May 4, 2007 |
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From The Economist:

Few ideas in education are more controversial than vouchers—letting parents choose to educate their children wherever they wish at the taxpayer’s expense. First suggested by Milton Friedman, an economist, in 1955, the principle is compellingly simple. The state pays; parents choose; schools compete; standards rise; everybody gains.
Simple, perhaps, but it has aroused predictable—and often fatal—opposition from the educational establishment. Letting parents choose where to educate their children is a silly idea; professionals know best. Co-operation, not competition, is the way to improve education for all. Vouchers would increase inequality because children who are hardest to teach would be left behind.
But these arguments are now succumbing to sheer weight of evidence. Voucher schemes are running in several different countries without ill-effects for social cohesion; those that use a lottery to hand out vouchers offer proof that recipients get a better education than those that do not.

Opponents still argue that those who exercise choice will be the most able and committed, and by clustering themselves together in better schools they will abandon the weak and voiceless to languish in rotten ones. Some cite the example of Chile, where a universal voucher scheme that allows schools to charge top-up fees seems to have improved the education of the best-off most.
The strongest evidence against this criticism comes from Sweden, where parents are freer than those in almost any other country to spend as they wish the money the government allocates to educating their children. Sweeping education reforms in 1992 not only relaxed enrolment rules in the state sector, allowing students to attend schools outside their own municipality, but also let them take their state funding to private schools, including religious ones and those operating for profit. The only real restrictions imposed on private schools were that they must run their admissions on a first-come-first-served basis and promise not to charge top-up fees (most American voucher schemes impose similar conditions).
The result has been burgeoning variety and a breakneck expansion of the private sector. At the time of the reforms only around 1% of Swedish students were educated privately; now 10% are, and growth in private schooling continues unabated.

More evidence that choice can raise standards for all comes from Caroline Hoxby, an economist at Harvard University, who has shown that when American public schools must compete for their students with schools that accept vouchers, their performance improves. Swedish researchers say the same. It seems that those who work in state schools are just like everybody else: they do better when confronted by a bit of competition.

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RE: That 10 Person Discussion Last Night

By Marc Comtois | May 4, 2007 |
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If you’re interested in reactions to a certain 10 person discussion held on a cable TV outfit broadcast from the Gippers book-den, here’s a roundup. And if you’re interested in the one guy who wasn’t there, well, here’s some reading for you. Feel free to discuss, below!

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RI Senate Approves Moving Presidential Primary to February 5

By Carroll Andrew Morse | May 3, 2007 |
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The Rhode Island Senate passed the bill to move Rhode Island’s Presidential primary date up to February 5th. Katherine Gregg of the Projo has the early calendar…

At least 23 states — with more than half the country’s population — have shifted or are considering shifting their presidential primaries or caucuses to early February, right after Iowa (Jan. 14), Nevada (Jan. 19), New Hampshire (Jan. 22), and possibly South Carolina and Florida (Jan. 29) kick off the process.
However, take that Florida date with a grain of salt. According to the Associated Press (via Breitbart.com), the national parties have taken steps to make sure that no one new can move ahead of the February 5th national primary…
National Republican and Democratic leaders have said they will take away delegates to the nominating conventions if Florida moves its primary earlier than Feb. 5. The Democratic National Committee has said a candidate who campaigns in Florida for a primary earlier than Feb. 5 will be ineligible for receiving any of the state’s delegates.
Now there’s a truly bi-partisan measure that I can support!

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