Fogarty leads Carcieri? What am I missing?
According to a post on ProJo’s 7to7 blog, the Lt. Governor Charles “Mr. Insider” Fogarty is leading Governor Carcieri in a recent poll.
Lt. Gov. Charles J. Fogarty is leading Governor Carcieri in the battle for the state’s top elected office, according to a poll released today by the independent pollster Rasmussen Reports.
Forty-six percent of likely voters supported Fogarty, a Democrat, while 41 percent supported the Republican Carcieri, in the telephone survey of 500 likely voters conducted Aug. 23. The margin of error is 4.5 points.
Today’s poll is the first to show the incumbent Carcieri behind. In a similar poll conducted last month, Fogarty and Carcieri were neck-in-neck, 42 percent to 43 percent respectively.
That means there are 13% undecided. Michael Barone has recently postulated that New England incumbents actually tend to get these voters in the end (contra the conventional wisdom). Be that as it may, why does Fogarty even have a lead? Are people really buying that Fogarty, an insider if ever there was one, will fight “corruption”? Or are there simply that many union-linked folks in this state who detest Carcieri? What if these numbers are merely reflective of the fact that Carcieri only started running political ads on TV this weekend?