How Are The Presidential Polls Looking?
Speaking of polls, how are the polls looking for President? After a tough primary season, what are Romney’s chances against Obama?
I think the go-to site for national polling is http://realclearpolitics.com. They’re a site that aggregates a few of the major polling organizations and comes up with an average of them all. Currently, they’re showing Obama with a 2.5 point lead over Romney.
However, when looking at polls, all pollsters will agree that when your sample includes “likely voters” and not just “registered voters”, you tend to get better and more realistic results. Real Clear Politics includes both types, but what happens when we only look at the polls that questioned the “likely voters”?
|Rasmussen Tracking||5/12 – 5/15||1500 LV||46||47||Romney +1|
|Wash Times/JZ Analytics||5/11 – 5/12||800 LV||43||44||Romney +1|
|Politico/GWU/Battleground||4/29 – 5/3||1000 LV||47||48||Romney +1|
|Democracy Corps (D)||4/28 – 5/1||1000 LV||47||47||Tie|
*Data taken from realclearpolitics.com
Well, I don’t know if it can get much clearer than that. Who cares if someone is registered to vote. They don’t matter. The people that do matter are the ones who will vote. That’s why the polls that include the likely voters are often more accurate than those with just the registered voters. And when we look at the likely voter polls, we see that President Obama could be in for a tough run going forward. But there’s still a long way to go.