Pres. Obama won in 2008 by about 53% to 46% for Sen. McCain.
He persuaded a sufficient majority of the middle 10% to take a chance on his promise of “hope and change.”
That same promise can’t possibly work this time — you can’t really sell change if you’ve been in office for almost 4 years.
You have to figure that both candidates this time start out with about a 45% floor.
So the real question here is whether enough of the “persuadable middle 10%” will stick with Pres. Obama, or whether they’ll be willing to take a chance on Gov. Romney.
When the middle 10% ask themselves whether the experiment has worked, whether they’re better off, whether their future is as bright as they expected . . . how many can answer that those questions in the affirmative?
Precious few, I’d wager.
Dan
12 years ago
“So the real question here is whether enough of the “persuadable middle 10%” will stick with Pres. Obama, or whether they’ll be willing to take a chance on Gov. Romney.”
There is another factor – how many will stay home. I think that factor squarely favors Romney. Having said that, it’s extremely difficult to beat a moderately popular incumbent, so we’re probably looking at 4 more years regardless.
Warrington Faust
12 years ago
“Pres. Obama won in 2008 by about 53%”
That is more than Clinton received in either of his elections.
David S
12 years ago
Am I better off? I can answer that in some ways with a no. But since you are posing that question for political purposes.. should not the question be – Do you think the country is better off? Or are you suggesting that only a very narrow self interest of the individual matter over all else?
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Pres. Obama won in 2008 by about 53% to 46% for Sen. McCain.
He persuaded a sufficient majority of the middle 10% to take a chance on his promise of “hope and change.”
That same promise can’t possibly work this time — you can’t really sell change if you’ve been in office for almost 4 years.
You have to figure that both candidates this time start out with about a 45% floor.
So the real question here is whether enough of the “persuadable middle 10%” will stick with Pres. Obama, or whether they’ll be willing to take a chance on Gov. Romney.
When the middle 10% ask themselves whether the experiment has worked, whether they’re better off, whether their future is as bright as they expected . . . how many can answer that those questions in the affirmative?
Precious few, I’d wager.
“So the real question here is whether enough of the “persuadable middle 10%” will stick with Pres. Obama, or whether they’ll be willing to take a chance on Gov. Romney.”
There is another factor – how many will stay home. I think that factor squarely favors Romney. Having said that, it’s extremely difficult to beat a moderately popular incumbent, so we’re probably looking at 4 more years regardless.
“Pres. Obama won in 2008 by about 53%”
That is more than Clinton received in either of his elections.
Am I better off? I can answer that in some ways with a no. But since you are posing that question for political purposes.. should not the question be – Do you think the country is better off? Or are you suggesting that only a very narrow self interest of the individual matter over all else?