GOP Pres ’08 Watch: Fred Thompson Running Strong
Two polls for your commenting pleasure. First, LA Times/Bloomberg (reg. req’d.) indicates Thompson trails Rudy Giulianni by 6 points:
Republicans antsy for a conservative standard-bearer in the presidential race have begun to rally behind Fred Thompson, propelling the former Tennessee senator to within hailing distance of the lead for the party’s nomination, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.
Former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani holds first place in the survey, with support from 27% of the Republicans and independents who said they plan to vote in the party’s 2008 primaries.
But Thompson, an actor who played a prosecutor on NBC’s “Law & Order,” runs just behind, with 21%. Indications are he will join the race within the next month.
Then Rasmussen reports that Thompson and Giulianni are tied:
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has to share his spot atop the field of Republican Presidential hopefuls this week. The newest face in the race, former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, is now tied with Giuliani. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds each man earning support from 24% of likely Republican Primary voters. A week ago, Giuliani had a six percentage point lead over Thompson, 23% to 17%.
Meanwhile, McCain is falling fast and Romney can’t seem to get over the 12% hump. Is this the Thompson peak? Or will he pick up momentum as lesser candidates drop out (as Newt Gingrich has done….before he even entered!)?
Glad I found your blog. Nicely done and well thought. I especially found your layoff post interesting.
As for the Republican race, the wildcard is the McCain vote. Where will those voters go once their campaign dissolves? It’s only a matter of time.
Giuliani started out strong, but lost support when Republicans learned about some of his liberal positions. Giuliani already has most of the GOP moderates.
McCain’s support comes from those who supported him in 2000 and some conservatives who weren’t willing to support Romney for various reasons. He lost much of the moderate base to Giuliani and is now losing his conservatives to Thompson.
This may quickly become a Thompson/Giuliani race.
Thompson wins a 2 man race if he sticks. His charisma is about Dukakis level though. Rudy wins if both Mccain and Romney don’t implode before Feb. 6.
There has been a lot of focus on Rudy’s moderate/liberal positions on a few key issues and whether he can win the nomination because of them.
Given his present strength and the ability of independents to vote in a number of primaries, it’s now clear to me that he CAN win the nomination.
Here’s my question: where do the committed pro-life voters go if Rudy is the nominee?
My guess is that either (1) there will be a strong pro-life 3d party or independent candidate who will skim enough votes from Rudy to defeat him and/or (2) these pro-life voters will stay home.
I am therefore convinced that, absent a major stumble by the eventual Dem. nominee, Rudy cannot win the general.
If Thompson’s serious, he had better establish a presence in New Hampshire. Granted, Romney wins ’cause he’s the boy next door, but Fred needs to poll better than 1 percent.
I still bet on Romney for the nom, but interesting story on the wire today about how quickly Willard’s burning through his money. Rather reminiscent of the Dean campaign four years ago.