What the Heck…Here’s Some Poll Numbers
The ProJo has a story about the latest Rasmussen poll that offers a snapshot of where we stand in the races for Governor and U.S. Senate 7 weeks out from the General Election (actually 8 weeks, the poll was taken last week).
Governor
Carcieri (R) – 47%
Fogarty (D) – 45%
U.S. Senate
Whitehouse (D) – 51%
Chafee (R) – 43%
Note: The sample was 500 likely voters taken a day after the primaries and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.
Editorial note: How likely are “likely” voters to vote in an off-year election? With regards to the Senate race: how seriously to take numbers gathered a day after one of the most negative and contested primaries in recent memory?
I completely agree about the Senate poll. The frustrated Laffey voters who said last Wednesday they were either voting for Whitehouse or skipping the race entirely need a week or two cooling-off period before this race can legitimately be polled.
The Carcieri upward movement reflects his finally getting TV ads on. Unless some big event alters the dynamic of this one, it probably stays a toss-up right to the end.
I dunno. A week later and Chafee still hasn’t decided he’s got the answers he needs on Bolton so my decision to not vote for him hasn’t changed.
As choosing between Chafee and Whitehouse is the same as choosing between Pain and Suffering, I’m going to write in Steve Laffey. I wonder how many others, who are sickened by Primary disaffiliation shenanigans, will do the same? I guess we’ll see in November.
The new Brown poll numbers show:
Whitehouse: 40%
Chafee: 39%
Undecided: 21%
MOE: +/- 4
I haven’t seen the Brown poll Carcieri/Fogarty numbers.
http://www.beloblog.com/ProJo_Blogs/newsblog/archives/2006/09/update_brown_po.html
“The poll also shows Republican Governor Carcieri well ahead of his Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. Charles Fogarty. Carcieri now leads Fogarty with 50 percent of likely voters supporting him to 38 percent supporting Fogarty, up from a 44 percent to 39 percent Carcieri lead in a June poll.”
It looks like Fogarty will top out in the low 40’s. Good news for Carcieri.
It looks like Fogarty will top out in the low 40’s. Good news for Carcieri.
“The new Brown poll numbers show:
Whitehouse: 40%
Chafee: 39%
Undecided: 21%
MOE: +/- 4”
How can a poll with 21% of respondents undecided mean anything?
Dear SusanD,
There are 3 problems with the West poll:
1.) There’s the geographic skew which is prevalent in all his polls.
2.) There’s the sampling problem that has reared its head this year. The reason that Rasmussen is considered to be so accurate has to do with his ability to draw a smaple close to what election day will look like. (The “atomated” methodology should deliver a counterintuitive result to what Mr. West suggests. However, this isn’t a class on polling and statistics.)
3.) His own data contradicts itself. (Charlie only has an 18 point lead with union members? Most folks think the Casino would be good for the economy?)
Having said all that:
Carcieri getting on the air should have drawn him even. However, reports from challengers, all parties accounted for, suggest that door to door response is not 50% for anybody but Mr. Lynch and Mr. Kennedy. Every other race is tight.
Chaffee, like Carcieri, is an incumbent and this should provide an advantage. However, keep in mind the total number of Sheldon votes in a non-hot primary versus the total number of GOP votes in a totally hot primary.
In short, its time for everybody to get to work. For me, that’s 2 hours of fundraising letters and calls, 1 hour of door to door, followed by an Historic District Meeting. Wanna trade places?
You’re not going to waste all that time trying to get Charlie the Crooked Ferengi elected governor, are you Bobby?
Dear Greg,
That time is spent on me. Don’t forget, I’m chasing 4 incumbents.
I am holding an event for Sheldon this Sunday at my home if you’d like to drop by. Whatever times is left, not a whole heck of a lot, you can be sure will be used on behalf of my beloved party. (Even with all that, it looks like I’m adding two clients this week. You may not like me, but I must be doing something right.)