Super Secret Poll Numbers
Not for nuthin’, here are some super-secret election eve poll numbers obtained by Dan Yorke “on background” from a well-respected Democrat polling outfit:
Senate: Chafee up 2 over Whitehouse (Explains why Pres. Clinton is coming)
Gov: Carcieri up 7 over Fogarty (Nothing new…)
LtGov: Roberts up 10 over Centrachio (Name recognition not enough?)
SecState: Stenhouse up 2 over Mollis (Something must be sticking to Ralph.)
Treas: Caprio up 50 over Lyons (Yikes, 50?)
Yes on Casino down 11 to No on Casino (Again, nothing new…)
1. Assuming that Laffey supporters aren’t shy about expressing their dissatisfaction to pollsters, remember this +2% includes abstentions.
2. Healey is probably killing Centracchio.
3. Casino supporters have underestimated how much the sizeable segment of apathetic Rhode Islanders who believe “all politicians are crooks, so the best I can do is send my loveable incumbent rogue back to the legislature to cozy up the leadership” also believe that “since all politicians are crooks, there’s no way in he** I’m giving them control of a casino”.
Heard Yorke talking about this . . . my guess is that the poll comes from the Lynch folks (that’s why his numbers aren’t included . . .).
Those conservatives who are still wavering on Whitehouse-Chafee:
Do you really want to listen to Sheldon pontificating for the next six (twelve . . .eighteen) years? Defeat him tomorrow and his political career will be over . . . . Think what a service you will be doing . . . .
brassband,
Agree completely on the Lynch angle. I’m amazed Yorke would allow himself to be used this way. Obviously the “not a Republican” who got this info to Yorke wanted it released to the public.
Yorke pontificating about how the media should be handling Slick Will’s visit is quite shallow given how Yorke himself is being used. I expected more smarts from Yorke.
Oops . . . Dan just gave the Lynch number — the AG is ahead of his challenger by fifteen points.
Andrew –
I agree the Healey is killing Centracchio. I thought he was within striking distance (2-4 points down) but this doesn’t bode well.
I still feel bad for Kerry King though.
I’m voting for Healey. Neither other candidate is worth their weight, IMO.
>>Do you really want to listen to Sheldon pontificating for the next six (twelve . . .eighteen) years? Defeat him tomorrow and his political career will be over . . . . Think what a service you will be doing . . . .
No. But then, neither do I want six more years of Lincoln Chafee (proverbially) flipping the bird to the Republican Party, and to conservatives in particular.
George H.W. Bush all the way!
Democrats will win big tomorrow.
The pro-Casino organizations will bringing busloads of people into the polls to vote. These will be the lower class who think the casino will significantly help the state.
Joel,
What does it say about the Democratic Party in Rhode Island that they must rely on Harrah’s gaming to deliver poor urban minorities to the polls by the busload to make these races close?
Casino is going down.
Carcieri wins
Chafee is neck and neck with Whitehouse and the minority community does not like Whitehouse. Come to think of it nobody likes Whitehouse. The greatest example of a blueblood DOG you’ll ever see.
Oh yea, I forgot. Linc Chafee with his 500 acre farm certainly represents the people of RI.
Good comeback Joel! lol
The urban poor are usually well underrepresented in polls, and that’s why I have a bad feeling the casino will pass.
As for the Senate race, wouldn’t be ironic that after the trashing she’s taken from both parties, Myrth York’s endorsement began the turnaround that enabled Chafee to pull out re-election?
If the Casino GOTV operation pulls it off, and pushes Charlie over the top in the process, it will be great news for two people: Marti Rosenberg and Paul Arpin. In my mind, that is the more important and, as yet, underreported story in this campaign.
“Good comeback Joel!”
Sarcasm, I presume??
– King Friday
You presume correctly SusanD. lol
Rhody,
The only way the casino question passes is with massive and I mean massive voter fraud. Given the sleazy track record of Harrahs in our state more than a few eyes will be watching this process to make sure it’s on the up and up. The GOTV may move the numbers 4 or 5% but question 1 is double digits down and will fail.
Rhody quick question if I may? Was surprised to see the plummers union endorse Carcieri. How PO’d are union rank and file with Fogarty and his misrepresenting his anti-casino strategy? Might we see some very creative write-in candidates for Governor? lol
I wouldn’t put voter fraud past Harrah’s. They’ve bought so many voters, consultants, political hacks and businesses already. Shame on the chief for allowing the rich white man to pimp him out (even if they upgraded his wardrobe).
At this point, you can’t call Fogarty a union hack any more – I think the power unions have pretty much abandoned him, and are focusing on the casino. A Carcieri victory AND passage of the casino are worst-case scenario far as I’m concerned, but not completely far-fetched.