Hillary’s Delegate Deficiency
Using formulas and data provided by Jason Furman of the Brookings Institution, Slate has created a nifty delegate calculator.
[Pretty picture only; please click on the link to access the calculator.]
Slate’s Chadwick Matlin and Chris Wilson have plugged in the delegates from states which have yet to hold their primaries and, at 4:36 this afternoon, concluded that
Even if Hillary Clinton wins tonight’s primaries, she still has an increasingly difficult road ahead. Going into this evening’s results, Clinton needs an average margin of victory of 16 points in every remaining primary to tie Obama’s pledged delegate total. If Clinton wins by fewer than 16 points, then her job only gets tougher going forward.
And what about the super delegates? Until now, common wisdom had it that these would break decisively for Hillary. But this is no longer the case, in a campaign that at every step has failed to conform to expectations and sage predictions.
Currently, Clinton has a 44-superdelegate lead, according to CNN, but Tom Brokaw is reporting that Obama’s campaign may be set to announce a 50-superdelegate envoy this week. That would make both candidates about even in superdelegates, which would make Clinton’s climb even tougher.
Newsweek’s Jonathan Alter availed himself of the calculator and went one step further.
So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.