If Man’s Greenhouse Gases Are The Cause of Global Warming, How Could the Warming Have Started in the 1600’s?
… that would be 200 years before man started cranking up a whole array of
back saving, medical advancing, temperature moderating, light extending, food preserving, comfort creating evil inventions driven by an equally wicked fuel supply.
When discussing the theory of anthropogenic global warming, it’s always a little dangerous to move away from the Central Data Point (man generates only 6% of greenhouse gases) and the Comtois Corollary (therefore, it is far too costly, in every sense of the word, to halt global warming, even if man’s 6% is the tipping point). While my mind and heart are entirely in the sceptics’ camp, it is easy to get overwhelmed by the data and proclamations of scientists on both sides of the argument, as they go back and forth with irrefutable proof refuting the latest refute in the discussion.
However, last week on Watts Up With That, guest contributor Tony Brown posted a temperature chart which revealed a familiar trend – but at an intriguing start point.
Take several even longer steps backwards, through the medium of Central England temperature (CET) the oldest and most examined instrumental data set in the world- maintained by the UK’s Met office- and this puts GISS into further historic context, in that the temperature rise extends-with numerous advances and reverses- all the way to 1659.
Don’t miss the plot of CO2 emissions at the bottom of his graph – completely flat from 1659 until 1845-ish, then a real spike starting around 1946; i.e., almost 300 years after the warming trend had started.
In the back and forth between warmists and sceptics, the accusation of “data cherry picking” has been thrown around a little too often. It would be easy to make it in this instance; however, the start-year of most AGW temperature-and-greenhouse-gas charts is probably not so much a case of cherry-picking but of simply neglecting to look back far enough to see when the trend started. “Let’s see, man started generating greenhouse gases in the 1850’s; let’s look at the temperature trend from that point.” “Sure! Makes sense.”
Even if not a deliberate mistake, it appears to be a mistake nevertheless. With Brown’s temperature chart, AGW advocates must now answer the most fundamental question about their theory:
If the planet started on a warming trend long before man’s greenhouse gases arrived on the scene, isn’t it possible that the “warming” in Anthropogenic Global Warming is really not “anthropogenic” at all?