I came across a quotation from Nassim Taleb’s book, Antifragile, suggesting that the more immediate your focus (e.g., hourly versus annually), the greater the noise-to-signal ratio.  That is, the effects from moment to moment are more likely to result from random or unrelated factors, while longer-term trends are more likely to reflect genuine changes.  The advice is worth keeping in mind while listening to commentators try to fit every moment’s occurrences into a long-term analysis and prediction.

The same goes for assessing strategies.

I don’t know if they reflect a deliberate plan (with Donald Trump, I tend to doubt it), but much of the reaction to statements from the Trump campaign seem blithely to ignore the fact that there are still months of campaign to cycle during which he can cycle through all variety of evidence that Harris is a dishonest chameleon, whether about her identity, policies, Biden coverup, etc.  An off-color comment, now, about her race will get a lot of attention, embed ideas about whether he life story is truly reflective of a particular demographic’s experience, which people might not otherwise have considered, and then fade with the constant news cycle.

How much is instinct and how much is strategy is always a difficult question with Trump, but commentary at the speed of Twitter is mostly noise.