Open Thread: Republican Presidential Nomination
The race for the Republican Presidential nomination seems more wide open than ever before. Here are the daily tracking numbers from Rasmussen…
- Mike Huckabee 20%
- Rudy Giuliani 17%
- Mitt Romney 13%
- John McCain 13%
The questions are…
- Are Rhode Islanders for Rudy Giuliani getting worried at all?
- Are Rhode Islanders not for Rudy Giuliani looking at Mike Huckabee as a serious alternative?
- Do Rhode Islanders for Mitt Romney think his strategy of sweep-the-early states is still viable, even as his national numbers seem to have stagnated?
- Do Rhode Islanders for John McCain really think he has a chance to break back into the top tier?
After reading this post it just hit me like a friggin brick.
I’m not excited about anyone who’s running. Nobody. Not even a little. I seriously may stay home election day for the first time since I voted in 1992.
I’m voting for Ron Paul. He is the only genuine conservative. The rest are phony conservatives. Royalists, really. If this were 1776, Guiliani, Romney, Bush, etc, all of them would already have been tarred and feathered and run out the state on a rail and be living in Canada now. The consititution has never been beaten up and insulted as it has by the so-called “conservatives” who have been in control of the Republican party for the past two decades. And not only is our freedom in jeopardy, our livings are in jeopardy as the Royalist continue to hand over the ownership of our economy to foreign creditors. Indeed, freedom is impossible without economic security. Put today’s phony conservatives in power for the next generation and the economic train-wreck they engineer will set the conditions for rise of a genuine, American-style fascism. (That is why the constitutional insults are so important today. Especially the signing statements. (Here’s an exercise: put all of Bush’s signing statements end to end and take a week or two to read them. What conclusions to you come to at the end?)
In conclusion, tt is vitally important that at least one of our major parties represents a genuine American conservatism. A strong showing for Ron Paul will began the long struggle to return the Republican party to it roots.
Iggy
Huckabee may become the Howard Dean of ’08. No yearrgghhhs but doesn’t seem substantial on things that matter, like foreign policy and national security. Pastor, yes, but president, no.
For me, Rudy is now the least bad choice, well ahead of any Dem.
Greg, if you don’t vote, you are voting Dem. Sends a message to the Republicans, but we can’t afford four years of any of the Dems.
Rudy may not be the most conservative in the field, but he offers the best hope for a conservative Presidency.
Huckabee’s run for the Vice Presidency will cost Romney and Thompson any chance of being the nominee. If Huck pulls it off (unlikely, but possible), we’re looking at a Dem president.
Paul can’t win, too many conservatives support the troops and think we SHOULD be fighting the war on terror OVER THERE instead of here.
Rudy will fight the war on terror to win. He wants to secure the border. He believes tax cuts help the economy. He will appoint strict constructionist judges. He has the best chance of beating anyone in the Democrat field in the general election.
Rudy may not measure up as the most conservative candidate, but he offers our best shot at a conservative Presidency, on the issues that really matter, than anyone else in the field.
There is no question that Huckabee is picking up Thompson voters.
Thompson’s numbers have fallen dramatically. Giuliani’s numbers have also fallen, although not to the degree of Thompson. Romney and McCain seem locked at around 10-13% and after his brief surge, Ron Paul has settled in with about 5% of the vote.
Strange, but this election might be determined by which candidates drop out. If McCain were to drop out, Giuliani would most likely pick up votes, as the conservative block would be fragmented. However, you’d have to think that Romney or Thompson dropping out would help Huckabee.
It’s amazing that with all the money that has been raised, a guy like Huckabee can even compete.
More specifically to the questions:
1. Yes. I would hate to see us nominate someone who can’t beat the Democrat nominee.
2. I like Gov. Huckabee, but I think he’ll fizzle. I think he’s in it for V.P.
3. Romney is toast.
4. McCain is burnt toast.
“Rudy may not be the most conservative in the field, but he offers the best hope for a conservative Presidency.”
I take it you haven’t actually read anything about him.
Rudy and Linc Chafee are the same species. RINOs.
I have been following Governor Huckabee for months, and arguments about electability and only running for the position of Vice President are long past their prime. His cross over appeal, unlike that of the others in the race, is quite phenomenal. He connects with the average voter with any morals. His poll numbers keep climbing (visit his web site to see why) and his finances are getting better. If he can pull even with Romney in Iowa before airing his first television ad there, then Huck’s Army may have a secret weapon more potent than money.
Barry, Huckabee’s path to citizenship views on immigration will hand the election to the Democrat.
EMT, on the issues that really matter and where a president can really have an impact (national security and the economy) Rudy measures up as a Reagan Republican. On Abortion and Gay Marriage, what impact can a president really have other through the judges he appoints. Rudy will appoint strict constitutional constuctionists. Chafee would have Barbara Streisand and Michael Moore on the bench if he could.
Charlie Bakst has lead you into believing abortion and gay rights are the critical issues that will decide the election. Your average working family, Democrat and Republican is going to look at security and their wallet first. Voters who vote on social issues (in either direction) are a weaker fringe.
Ron Paul is the best hope for this country. Preserving, protecting, and defending the US Constitution is the best way to insure security for the people and the “homeland”. He has my vote.
PDM, trouble is our Constitution alone won’t protect us against Islamic extremists hell-bent on exploiting our freedoms to kill us.
In the early 1980’s I was stationed at Ft. Meade Maryland, home of the National Security Agency. My barracks was about a par 5 from the NSA building. At the time the Nation’s most secret agency had no fence around it, no Jersey barriers, no guards. Ft. Meade was an open campus, anyone could cut through to get from Laurel to Glen Burnie. You could bring your family and have a picnic on the front lawn of NSA. Now only military and their families can enter the base. There is an armed guard posted at each entrance. NSA is surrounded by Jersey barriers and other such obstacles.
This didn’t happend because we lost respect for the Constitution. This happened because we need to protect our country from the kind of enemy who will make a complete ass out of Ron Paul if he were to be President (God forbid!).
>>Rudy may not be the most conservative in the field, but he offers the best hope for a conservative Presidency. If a pro-amnesty; pro-gay marriage; pro-gun control cross-dressing candidate “offers the best hope for a conservative Presidency” … then God help us! >>Huckabee’s run for the Vice Presidency will cost Romney and Thompson any chance of being the nominee. If Huck pulls it off (unlikely, but possible), we’re looking at a Dem president. Huckabee is an ordained George W. Bush – for big government (a/k/a “compassionate conservatism”) and amnesty. Bush has been described in some circles as an “evangelical socialist” – Huckabee is too, even more so. God help us again. >>Rudy will fight the war on terror to win. He wants to secure the border. He believes tax cuts help the economy. He will appoint strict constructionist judges. So he says now that he’s seeking the nomination. His track record – which is far more credible – says otherwise. >>He has the best chance of beating anyone in the Democrat field in the general election. Just the opposite. Giuliani agrees with Hillary et als. on 80% of the issues – offering little compelling reason to vote for him, even if only to oppose her, since they’re so sympatico on most issues. And if he gets the nomination you can be sure that the “mainstream media” (and Soros-funded 527’s) will start plastering the airwaves with images of Rudy dressed in drag and voiceovers talking about his liberal position on amnesty / gay marriage and gun control. It’s no coincidence that we’re not seeing that now – they’re keeping their powder dry. But if he’s the nominee they’ll make sure that the Republican vote is suppressed – particularly in the Sunbelt / Bible Belt – by educating Republican voters exactly how… Read more »
>>Ron Paul is the best hope for this country. Preserving, protecting, and defending the US Constitution is the best way to insure security for the people and the “homeland”. He has my vote.
I don’t agree with all of his positions, but he is the candidate that most adheres to his oath to uphold the Constitution.
The problem is that (for now) he’s unelectable. FDR trashed the Constitution, created a dependent class, and most Americans don’t understand the Constitution (intentionally, thanks to our leftist public education system).
Someone like Paul might have a chance someday, but probably not until after Social Security, Medicare etc. collapse and default – after which Americans will discover the folly of socialism and dependency on government – and then may be open to rediscovering the genius underlying, and true application of, the Constitution.
What is all this about Rudy in a dress? I remember seeing him in a SNL skit playing the part of an italian grandmother that was hilarious. To me it meant he had a sense of humor and thick skin. Good ammo to go up against the Clinton machine.
I think the Giuliani campaign should buy that skit and play it often.
So, Tom W. who’s your dog… and what’s he got?
>>What is all this about Rudy in a dress?
Some years ago he dressed in drag (I believe for a charity event). Google it and I’m sure you’ll find photos. Or here:
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=49595
The imagery for a potential President is terrible – and raises real questions about his judgment.
>>So, Tom W. who’s your dog… and what’s he got?
At this point …
Thompson by default – not perfect, but acceptably conservative (with a consistent record therefore). Readily acknowledging disappointment in his campaign performance thus far, and fear that unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat very soon he’s toast.
If Romney gets the nomination I might hold my nose and vote for him, but won’t donate or volunteer time to help him beforehand.
If it’s Giuliani / Huckabee / McCain I’ll probably sit out voting in the Presidential race or vote for Ron Paul (or a third party candidate) as a protest vote (just as I did for Perot in 1992).
So when you don’t get a “conservative” of your definition, you go with the nut.
If Rudy doesn’t get the nod, I’ll vote for the nominee. I don’t think I’d have to hold my nose for Romney, Thompson, Huckabee or McCain. (Though I may need a dose of anti-nausia for McCain.) All who have a shot at the nomination would be preferable to a Democrat… or a nut.
>>So when you don’t get a “conservative” of your definition, you go with the nut.
I support Republicans; I don’t support RINO’s.
If the so-called “Republican” nominee is some combination of pro-amnesty / pro-abortion / pro-gay marriage / pro-gun control, there’s no substantive difference from the Democrat. So there’s no upside point in voting for them, and much downside – it weakens the Republican Party over the long term.
A liberal claiming that they’ll be tougher in “The War on Terror” might make for a slightly less noxious Democrat candidate, but doesn’t make for an appealing Republican candidate. Trashing virtually every Republican principle in the name of “fighting the war on terror” is not a path I choose to go down.
Every Republican in this race has views that you could call suspect. Even Reagan wasn’t perfect on all todays issues. But would you choose Ron Paul or Ross Perot over Reagan?
There is a lot of fodder out there about Rudy’s record in New York, but when you step back and look at the before and after picture, his results are very impressive. I would certainly want Rudy in charge if there were ever another 9-11, definitely not Hillary, even less Ron Paul. Thompson has absolutely no record that convinces me he would be able to handle any serious crisis. I don’t understand the appeal of a guy who can’t even get off the couch to campaign.
Would Giuliani be better than Hillary in a “crisis” or in the “War on Terror?” Yes.
But I’m not going to let the 9/11 tail wag the dog on every other issue.
Giuliani would transform the GOP into a national version of the RIGOP: “me too Democrats” that stand for nothing and wonder why their party keeps shrinking.
No thanks.
For me its about the country much more than it is about the party.
But, I think the party’s platform on national security, the economy and immigration will improve under Rudy’s leadership. I don’t see Rudy trying to influence the party on the issues that scare you; abortion, guns, gays, etc. Obviously he’ll want Repubicans to get elected to the House and Senate.
And Rudy’s record in NYC goes far beyond 9-11. The city was crime-ridden, dirty and bankrupt when he took office. It was vibrant, clean and safe when he left office. No small feat for a Republican in liberal gotham.
>>For me its about the country much more than it is about the party.
Yes, but parties and politics determine the direction of our country.
>>But, I think the party’s platform on national security, the economy and immigration will improve under Rudy’s leadership.
How?
>>I don’t see Rudy trying to influence the party on the issues that scare you; abortion, guns, gays, etc.
He probably won’t try to influence the party on those issues. The problem is, neither will he oppose the Democrats in Congress on those issues – just like he did in NY.
>>Obviously he’ll want Repubicans to get elected to the House and Senate.
Maybe. OTOH, maybe he won’t really care.
>>And Rudy’s record in NYC goes far beyond 9-11. The city was crime-ridden, dirty and bankrupt when he took office. It was vibrant, clean and safe when he left office. No small feat for a Republican in liberal gotham.
Granted he did much to improve NY. He was a law and order liberal. That’s why I believe that a lot of the NYC based media wants him to be the Republican nominee – if the Democrat doesn’t win they get the next best thing – a liberal “Republican” – which they can live with.
I probably agree with about 10 percent of Huckabee’s agenda, but he’s the most intellectually honest one of the bunch.
Guiliani? Tempermental egomaniac. Romney? Whore who managed to convince Mass. voters he was a moderate. McCain? Rolled over for the Bush campaign in ’04 after it trashed his family four years before. Thompson? Somebody put him up to a campaign he obviously doesn’t have the fire in the belly for.
I like Huckabee.What I like best is a quote from USA Today where he states he’s pretty matter of fact and a free wheeler. He almost assumes he’s going to say something that will get him into hot water, but said he’s not shying away from who he is.
I’ve always admired candidates like that and the more of the nation’s mayor I see the less I like. Same with Thompson. Same with Romney. The only candidate thus far that I am a little excited about is Huckabee.
George, Perhaps you have yet to read Huckabee’s stand on illegal immigration. Secure the borders first is what he asserts. Your “Huckabee’s path to citizenship” attribution is in error. His stand on not punishing children of illegal immigrants for the crimes of their parents carries a Biblical message [its almost a direct quote] that significantly resonates among some core Republican constituencies (outside of the Northeast) when added to his get tough on the border stance. His “higher ground / better nation than that” stand has cross over appeal that should concern the Democrats. Maybe the Governor has a better understanding of the rest of the nation then we give him credit for.
Ron Paul is the only conservative running. America needs to stop being the world’s bully. Bully’s are hated and plotted against.
We need to mind our own business. Our business is defending the Mexican border which has been left wide open by traitors Bush and Clinton.
Despite Bush’s “wide open border” policy there hasn’t been a terrorist attack yet. We need to stop fearing the Al Qaeda boogeyman that DOES NOT exist.
We’re wasting a trillion dollars a year on the thirst for world domination while our country is collapsing from within both morally and economically, just like the “progressive” Soviet Union; yet, we are supposed to be in fear of some guy living in a cave, with no flush toilet, living on a transistor dialysis machine.
Grow up people. It’s your own government that’s the threat to everything you have not some chimera in a cave 6000 miles away.
Besides Huckabee’s support for amnesty, this alone is more than enough reason to write him off of the consideration list (from AP):
“CONCORD, N.H. – The New Hampshire chapter of the National Education Association, the country’s largest teachers union, has endorsed Hillary Rodham Clinton and Mike Huckabee for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations respectively, sources said Wednesday.”
Any friend of the NEA is an enemy of children, parents and taxpayers.
Barry, your defense of Huckabee’s imigration policy explains why he’s not electable. If you have to explain it too much , you’ve already lost. The average voter won’t go that far to seek meaning. They want to undertand the candidates position without studying it. Same goes for the “Fair Tax”. Most voters won’t go for it because it takes too much splainin’. … another loser for Huckabee.
I’m very suspicious of the NEA’s endorsement of Huckabee. Are they just trying to knock Romney out?
… or knock Huckabee out, George.
(No offense, NEA.)
Huckabee has long had the endorsement of the primary homeschooling legal association for good reason: he is the only governor who has appointed a representative of homeschooling on a state education board. It was primarily the homeschoolers and fair taxers (in addition to value voters)who got him the surprise early win in the Iowa straw vote. To say the man leading in his party’s first caucus state as well as nationally (ref.: Rasmussen), who is surging nationally while others are dropping, is vying for Vice President or is unelectable seems quite strange. [Would you say the same about Hillary?] He won the governorship in a very Democratic state, and apparently knows how to run a successful campaign. On another note, one should be cautious in seeing conspiracies where there may be better explanations.
again…too much splainin’ Where does he stand on illegals? amnesty or no-amnesty (your explanation sounds too much like amnesty, which is a big loser). Where does he stand on school choice? Would the NEA endorse someone pro-school choice?
Monique, why not offend the offensive NEA. Did you not see the Pat Crowley photo?
From what I understand (correct me if I’m wrong) Huckabee supported last’s summer’s attempted amnesty bill. Let’s not forget that the illegal immigrant chicken processing industry (Tyson, etc.) are some of the biggest employers in Arkansas.
Huckabee went and spoke to the NEA, and obviously told them what they wanted to hear. There’s NO WAY they would have endorsed him if he’d offered even one hint of a pro-child / pro-parent / pro-taxpayer agenda. Maybe he figured the home schoolers wouldn’t find out. This from MSNBC:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/12/05/497082.aspx
The 16,000-member New Hampshire affiliate of the National Education Association has chosen to recommend to its members Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and Mike Huckabee in the Republican primary, according to a source within the state NEA.This is the first time the state affiliate has picked a candidate in the GOP primary, and it follows Huckabee’s showing as the only Republican who spoke to the NEA convention in July.
The state chapter’s membership is more than 25% Republican, said the source, and the committee didn’t want those members to be ignored. When Huckabee spoke at the convention and participated in an interview with the state affiliate, deciding members felt it would be right to point that out to members. Only education and related positions were considered, and the board appreciated Huckabee’s “strong views on public education,” especially supporting the arts and music. The board might have felt differently if it had considered the former Arkansas governor’s opinions on “social values issues” and “war issues,” the source said.
George and Tom W,
Huckabee has just today released a “Nine Point Strategy for Immigration Enforcement and Border Security” to be found on his campaign web site. The plan is patterned after one first published in National Review Magazine. He has for a long time had a full explanation of his views on education on his web site. In neither case do I see him losing any votes because of his stands although there are those whose voices are shriller on at least the illegal immigration issue (e.g., Tancredo and Hunter). [I originally was a supporter of Hunter, having lived in his Congressional District some years ago.] His political genius is that he takes consistent principled stands without appearing angry or offensive. Voters tend to believe him and, like Ron Paul, there seems to be a reason for this. He garnished an incredible 48% of the Negro vote in his last election for governor and, unlike some other leading candidates, has shown a willingness to address any forum. (Witness his appearance before the New Hampshire NEA, where, by the way, he emphasized his views on art and music becoming an integral part of education. He did not emphasize his excellent record on school choice.)Hopes this helps answer some legitimate questions.
Anyone else think that Giuliani is going to bed every night praying that Romney and Thompson stay in the race?
Huckabee would more than likely pick up votes if either Romney or Thompson dropped out and that looks to be enough to overtake Giuliani.
I agree with rhody. Huckabee has moved up because people feel he is intellectually honest.
Giuliani has been hurt because while he claims to be conservative, his pro-choice, pro-gun control and gay rights positions (even though he supports gay civil unions, but not marriage) make it difficult to believe is he conservative at all.
McCain has been hurt by his positions on the Bush tax cut, campaign fiance reform and a belief that he tried to re-package himself from a moderate into a conservative.
Romney has been hurt by his apparent flip-flops on abortion and gay rights that started with his run for Senate. His religion has been a factor with fundamentalist Christians.
Thompson was hurt by the revelation that he once lobbied for an abortion rights group that he couldn’t recall and accusations that he is lazy.
In the midst of all of it, Huckbee is benefiting from an appearance of consistency.
I don’t know if it attracts general election independent voters, but it’s the only reason that can explain how an underfunded B-list candidate has somehow put himself on the A-list.
Huckabee’s strategy appears to be waiting until the A-list candidates “re-invent” themselves to oblivion and attempting to walk over the dead bodies en route to the GOP nomination.
Talk about a weird election.
All that stuff on his website is great for you, Tom and I and other political junkies who actually go are seeking a little depth. But the average voter is looking for the candidate to look into the camera and state their position in a succinct way that answers their yes or no questions. Does he support school choice? Yes or no. Pro-amnesty, yes or no. Will the “Fair Tax” lower my taxes? I don’t know!
Huck-mania will be over mid January.
Anthony, Huckabee is anything but consistent. He’s an Arkansas smooth talker whose beating around the bush nearly rivals that of the more famous Arkansas smooth talkers. When challenged on his path to citizenship proposal for the children of immigrants, he gives a convoluted explanation attempting to appeal to both sides of the issue. When confronted about his tax record in Arkansas, he gives anyting but a comforting straight answer. If he had very good reasons for raising taxes, he should just say it. The spin leaves you wondering where he really stands.
I don’t like the fact that Rudy is pro-choice. But I love the fact that he’s been consistent and when asked about it he just says yes.
You’re right, all the candidates have problems. But I still think Huckabee will only shine in the very early contests. The only Republican who can go all the way is Rudy Giuliani.
George,
Hard to see Giuliani going all the way when he isn’t even contesting the first events and might well lose Florida to Huckabee. Have you seen the recent polls? Northern Florida demographically is likely to go solidly for Huckabee. Then again, that is a long time off. Have a pleasant weekend.
Huckabee now has a 22 point lead over the next closest Republican in Iowa, essentially destroying the first part of Romney’s early state strategy.
Romney is still maintaining a strong lead in NH, which as a neighboring governor, is crucial for him. If Romney loses NH, he can’t win the election. Huckabee is the only candidate trending upwards in NH, but he hasn’t surged in NH like in Iowa. Giuliani and Thompson are taking nosedives, while McCain is staying steady.
Next up is Michigan which is anyone’s guess. Giuliani has been thought to hold a slight lead (under 5 points) over Romney, but Michigan moved its primary date up and some of the votes may not even count.
Romney is in the lead in Nevada, taking the top spot from Giuliani, but nobody appears to have any real depth of support in NV.
South Carolina comes next. At various points, Giuliani, Thompson and Romney polled in front, but all three candidates are freefalling and Huckabee has surged into the lead.
Next up is Florida, another state that may be penalized for moving its primary up. Giuliani has a huge lead and Romney is in second, but Huckabee has more than doubled his numbers in the past month, taking advantage of Thompson’s nosedive. McCain has stayed locked in 4th place.
The bright spot for Giuliani is that he should win California, New York and New Jersey. But if Huckabee catches fire in NH,NV or MI, the coasts might not be enough to carry Giuliani.
“but Michigan moved its primary date up and some of the votes may not even count.”
Here we go. Hopefully, the Democrats are doing the same thing (nullifying the primary votes of states which do not comply with the primary schedule ordered by the national party) so that the accusations, valid or not, of democracy denied will apply across the spectrum.
“At least President Bush cut taxes. With Mike Huckabee you don’t even have that,” he warned.”
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YjZjYjYyZDEwMDIwYzJmN2Q0NWJmY2FmMWIxYjFiMTM=
>>Huckabee has just today released a “Nine Point Strategy for Immigration Enforcement and Border Security” to be found on his campaign web site.
Plans released during the primaries have all the credibility of a deathbed conversion.
Huckabee (and Giuliani and Romney) have de facto been pro amnesty when it mattered – when the were in office.
Sorry, but Huckabee’s nothing but a Bill Clinton that actually attends church when the cameras aren’t rolling.
The Detroit Free Press is speculating that Democrats will cross-over to vote for Huckabee in the Republican primary, thanks in part to Huckabee’s union endorsements. Sounds reminiscent of the RI Dems coming over to vote for RINO Lincoln Chafee now, doesn’t it?
http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/10/is-michigan-huckabees-firewall/
Huckabee endorsed by unions?
Marc Ambinder reports that the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers endorsed Mike Huckabee. I wonder how many of these are Republicans? Does it hurt Huckabee by confirming his less-than-conservative economic record?
http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/08/30/huckabee-endorsed-by-unions/