To be honest, I’ve been a little surprised at the intense interest in Senator Chafee’s vote on Alito. From conservatives’ standpoint, the only intriguing turn of events would have been a “yes” vote on the nomination and the questions that it would have raised about whether Chafee might make further efforts to court us.
What Chafee actually stated in today’s announcement — and it isn’t but so surprising — is that, no, he isn’t particularly interested in solidifying support among Rhode Island’s divided Republicans. One can find a measure of sad humor musing that this attitude is precisely what the national GOP likes about Chafee for the next election cycle, but otherwise, the episode is just another instance of our own Linc Chafee doing what he does best: disappointing constituents to his political right.
So, as much as I’d like to reward Kathryn Lopez for directing NRO Corner readers to Anchor Rising for “RI backlash,” I’m not sure that there’s much lashing to go back to. Whether related to the war in Iraq or the Senator’s wishy-washy partisanship or some other matter, there probably weren’t that many on the Rhode Island right who had yet to have their “I’d rather vote for Patrick Kennedy” moments. Apart from a few resurgent squawks, the only backlash that remains to be seen will come in the form of our own “no” votes.

So asks NROs Ramesh Ponnuru:

I haven’t thought this race held as much potential for conservatives as the Specter vs. Toomey race did in 2004. I thought Toomey had a greater chance of winning a general election than I think Laffey does now. But as Chafee’s Alito vote shows, the downside of backing the conservative insurgent is lower, too. What would Chafee do if the Republican majority in the Senate depended on his vote? How much confidence can anyone have that he would stay a Republican under those circumstances?

I hadn’t really seriously considered the prospect, but it strikes me as no small leap to ask if he’d pull a Jefford’s if his “conscience” so dictated? I know he’s said he wouldn’t in the past, but can Republican Chafee supporters really be so sure? (Incidentally, the link to Sen. Chafee’s statement–made shortly after he voted for President George H.W. Bush–is no longer anywhere to be found on the Senator’s web site).
Here’s Senator Chafee’s official statement on Alito (PDF) and here is Mayor Laffey’s official response.

On WPRO, Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey just said that he was “disappointed but not surprised” at Sen. Chafee’s decision. He said that Sen. Chafee had made himself irrelevant to the process again and that RI won’t be well-served by either Chafee’s decision on this particular issue nor on Sen. Chafee’s consistent inablilty to make a firm decision. When told that Sen. Chafee stated he opposed Alito because of his stance on abortion, the separation of church and state, and wiretapping, Mayor Laffey said that the Senator shouldn’t make litmus tests part of his decision-making process. Laffey said, “that’s wrong” and explained (I’m paraphrasing), “how would you like to get in front of a judge knowing he already has staked a position on an issue?” To Laffey, this “extremist” insistence on litmus tests is what is wrong with the process.
UPDATE:: The ProJo has more extensive coverage, here are the highlights:

Chafee said at a press conference this morning at his Providence office that he was “greatly concerned” about some of Alito’s philosophies. In explaining his decision against the judge, the senator described himself as a “pro-choice, pro-environment, pro-Bill of Rights Republican.”
Chafee noted that while Alito had “outstanding legal credentials,” his philosophy on certain issues, including the commerce clause, executive power and women’s reproductive rights, influenced his decision.
Chafee said that Alito’s position on the landmark Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion seems different than the position taken by U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., whom Chafee voted to confirm last year.
He said Roberts was willing to call Roe vs. Wade “settled law” during his nomination hearing, but Alito “refused to make a similar statement.”
The senator had said during his 2000 campaign that he would not vote for a nominee who did not pledge to affirm Roe v. Wade.
“I’m very concerned about the slow eroding of women’s reproductive freedom,” Chafee said. . .
Chafee today also expressed concern that Alito’s apparent position on the Constitution’s commerce clause, allowing Congress to regulate commerce among states, could weaken environmental laws such as the Clean Water Act.
And he questioned Alito’s stance on executive power as it relates to warrantless wiretaps and the Fourth Amendment, which protects against “unreasonable searches and seizures.”
Chafee stated, “Judge Alito was also asked, ‘…Is it possible under your construct that an inherent Constitutional power of the president could, under some analysis or some case, override what people believe to be a Constitutional criminal statute?’ Judge Alito responded that this was possible noting a ‘possibility that might be justified.’ ”
Chafee said, “As Justice O’Connor wrote in a recent case, ‘A state of war is not a blank check for the president when it comes to the rights of the nation’s citizens.’ ”
Chafee said he did not make his final decision until Friday. He said he needed to take his time with a thorough analysis because it’s a decision that the country will likely live with for many years since Alito is a young man.
In analyzing Alito’s positions, Chafee said he was more concerned with the appeals court judge’s decisions from the bench than what he wrote as a lawyer for “his client,” the Reagan administration.
Still, he acknowledged, “It’s so hard to predict” how a nominee will vote on the court.
Chafee, a former Warwick mayor and son of a former GOP U.S. senator and Rhode Island governor, has gained a reputation in the Senate as a maverick willing to buck the party leadership. Still, he said he wanted to support the president’s nominee.
“Believe me, having been an executive in government, I want to support President Bush’s choice to the Supreme Court,” Chafee said. “The president did win the election. He has made his promises and I have made mine.”

As reported by WPRO’s Lori Johnson, Sen. Lincoln Chafee will vote against Judge Alito. He cited concerns about Judge Alito’s stance on wiretapping and executive power and secondarily about Judge Alito’s stance on abortion. More to come…
UPDATE: My quick take is that, while Sen. Chafee seems to have indeed voted his conscience, there can be no doubt that a general election political calculation has also been made. That’s fine. I disagree with his reasoning and also wonder why he didn’t have such fits of conscience when it came to voting for Justice Roberts. Perhaps justifying this vote with some purported belief that Judge Alito would give the Executive too much power is his “out.” Nonetheless, I wonder how the President feels about his support for Sen. Chafee, now?

From Chris Cillizza’s Washington Post Politics Blog (via John J. Miller at NRO):

[Sen. Lincoln] Chafee remains the most high-profile undecided senator on Alito, and regardless of which side he eventually chooses, he can expect to be bashed for it.
Chafee faces a primary challenge from Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey (R). Should he get through that race, he will face off against either former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) or Secretary of State Matt Brown (D) in a state that went for the Democratic presidential candidate by 20 points in 2004.
A Chafee vote for Alito will make for considerable fodder for either Brown or Whitehouse. But a vote against Alito could give Laffey the GOP nomination.
Asked about the seeming conundrum, Chafee campaign manager Ian Lang said that “from a purely political standpoint this is a lose-lose situation.” Lang said Chafee will put aside political interests, however, and make a decision that is in the “best interests of the country and the best interests of Rhode Island.”
Laffey, who is running as a populist outsider and to Chafee’s ideological right, has already sought to make the senator’s indecision on Alito an issue in the campaign. “As long as we have known Senator Chafee he has shied away from taking a firm stance on the critical issues of the day,” Laffey said in a recent news release. The release also noted that Chafee didn’t vote for President George W. Bush in 2004, recalling Chafee’s decision to cast a symbolic vote for former President George H.W. Bush instead.
A source close to Laffey said “voting against Alito, and doing so in the indecisive manner in which [Chafee] is conducting himself, underscores exactly what Rhode Island Republicans most dislike about Chafee — he sides with the liberals on all the big issues, and he’s weak and can’t make up his mind.”
Chafee, perhaps the most moderate Republican in the Senate, must be cognizant of the Republican base as he weighs how to respond to Laffey’s primary challenge. . .
So in order to win the GOP primary, Chafee must not only convince a cavalcade of independents to support him but also take a chunk of traditional Republican votes. With that calculation in mind, one source close to the Chafee campaign said the the senator “can survive a ‘yes’ [on Alito] vote a lot easier in the general election than he can survive a ‘no’ vote in the primary election.”

I wonder: what does Sen. Chafee consider “the best interests of the country and the best interests of Rhode Island”? I hope he elaborates when he announces his decision.